Monday

IFO Day 10:00 Germany lower expected

Asia all red: NIKK and Taiwan Index - 2,5% Reason Oil slipping
btc @ 18.5k

British Pound on a historic low this morning: 1 Pound equals 1.02 CHF - near pari

Numbers: IFO 10h

Speeches: ECB diverse speeches in the morning and then
more important ECB Lagarde 15:00

DAX 7:30 pre cash @ the 12.2k line - lower than Friday

Outlook: DAX shows a down trend in the 4h chart until midnight a change might occur. Means the 12.2k line will just short being visited in cash hour (IB?) to turn then down
A next goal sits @ 11895 (Fib 161%)

GFIs1

edit 9:08 - gap to Friday had been closed (on IB)

edit 10:02 - IFO numbers lower than expected - 4 points down to 84.3

Monday trade

DAX short 9:30 to 16:00
entry @ 12304
exit @ 12336
result - 36 points

GFIs1

About a Recession in Germany

The IFO numbers plus the outlook came today (10:00) with very bad numbers.
Now some "experts" from Germany finally see a upcoming Recession in their country for this winter.
Aha!
Those easy to read development was clear since a long time. The spiral down is real and can not be slowed down by some hefty up-clicks of the interest rate by the ECB. For this it is too late now.
All said: the direction of the DAX et al is now confirmed.

GFIs1

Some additional info's to the above:

What is written in the first page from the IFO institute:



No comment on this explanation why this all is happening , but here is the link: https://www.ifo.de/en

And following the whole report from today. On the page you just press "Download". https://www.ifo.de/en/facts/2022-09-26/ifo-business-climate-index-falls-across-board-september-2022



Interesting is the following screen shot, which on closer inspection confirms exactly what @GFIs1 described above (Those easy to read development was clear since a long time)



Symple

Tuesday

Asia thin green except Hang Sen
Usa red yesterday
btc$ again up above 20k

US numbers 14:30: diverse & incoming orders in (quite) negative range

Speeches EUR 13:30: ECB Lagarde and 15:00 ECB De Guindos

DAX was sideways yesterday. Today we might see a reversal to up in the morning. *
The overall trend is still short.

DAX pre cash 7:30 @ 12298 (in Kumo 30m)

GFIs1

* edit 8:35 - works as the scenario above has foreseen: price is already on upper line of Kumo

Tuesday trade

DAX long 9:00 to 13:30
entry @ 12350
exit @ 12265 (SL @ lower Kumo 30m)
result - 85 points

GFIs1

Wednesday

Asia all red
btc$ lower 18.6k

DAX killed yesterday after cash the 12k line

no important numbers
Speeches: ECB Lagarde 9:15!, ECB Elderson 17:00
FED Powell 16:15
FED Bowman 17:00

DAX pre cash 7:30 exactly @12k, direction down, means a larger gap to 17:30 yesterday

GFIs1

Wednesday trade

DAX short 9:00 to 17:30
entry @ 11993
exit @
result

GFIs1

Thursday

The trade from yesterday is still open as I was away from keyboard and could not follow the still crazy movements up.

Today the DAX seems to get back to the Tuesday levels which might end lower aka under the 12k line.

Asia green except 2 candidates.
Some numbers EUR and US
Some speeches from not so important members

GFIs1

edit 11:25 - the BATTLE @ 12k still alive

edit 16:16 - a Take Profit sits @ 11650

GFIs1 

Thursday ....... and could not follow the still crazy movements up. GFIs1

I saw the sudden change of direction in currencies first, and then in the indices as well. Then I looked at the bonds and also there the exact same. I then wondered what happened and could not find anything specific at first.





Finally, the following explanation with all the charts from Bloomberg:

Bonds, Stocks, Bitcoin, & Bullion Soar After Brits 'Save The World'

The Bank of England's desperate bailout of its pension funds - by pivoting back to QE (only temporarily of course) - sparked chaotic buying across global markets. Bonds were the most dramatic movers, but FX swings were sizable, and stocks, gold, crypto, and oil all ripped on the renewed easing efforts.

First the scene of the crime... UK 30Y Gilt yields collapsed (-106bps) after BoE intervention...



Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury yields followed suit with the belly of the curve plunging over 25bps, erasing all the week's yield increase...



Source: Bloomberg

European stocks spiked on the news, then faded, then rallied into their cash close to end slightly green (FTSE-250 was unchanged after being down 3% early in the session)...



Source: Bloomberg

The whole informative article can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bitcoin-bullion-soar-after-brits-save-world

Symple