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No chance for a retrace today.
Trade was stopped out with 30 minus points.
Stops are always adjusted from a wide stop of 40
to a narrower 30 points stop (like for normal trades).
In this triple witch week with a very high volume
the normal "waves" are not to be seen.
Could adjust my rules for these rough times
but still following my rules for this month here.
Good trades - be careful anyway (with shorts)
as we see a strong bullish move into higher levels as
noted in previous posts.
We have seen this week good volumes, many bullish moves and
very different signals depending on the march future or the june
future.
Will make a review on this rare situation by taking a look on
the two futures side by side.
The result is a good hint by when to roll over a contract when
using a time based system like we are using here.
Gives amazing insights.
This week in the DAX was very bullish - the week of triple witch was with high volumes and some
interesting differences between two futures: DAXH2 for the March future which ended yesterday
and DAXM2 for the June future.
Attached I have a chart of the same days for each future. On the 30 min chart I only show the
intraday official hours.
The march future had TWO gaps this week - one on Tuesday opening (lower blue circle)
and on Wednesday (upper blue circle).
The june future had only ONE gap - that was on Tuesday only.
So my trading system took a different rule what resulted in a 30 points stop loss. Taking the
proper rule that would have given a 6 points plus the overall difference was 36 points for that
day. The week ended with that trade in a negative total.
One remark to the volumes - the march future was heavy traded from Monday to Thursday.
The june future took over on Friday only. So my decision to rollover on Thursday was ok.
I trade the EUREX Index Frontmonth Futures until the day before Expiration.On the Expiration day I trade the next period future.
You will have better Spread and Volume in the old contract until the day before expiry.
While the US index futures are tradeable together 1 week before EX ,in Europe you have a different behavior.
I like your idea of trading the Index with statistical results.
Check your Statistic for the results in Expiration-weeks.
I think you cannot compare the normal statistic with the special days of future-expiration,central bank announcement and similar.
Perhaps you will find additional rules for these special days as you have your rule for large range days.
Looking over a year back on my weekly results I recognize that about every fifth week these results are low or negative. This is obviously the case during the week of triple witch.
Knowing this fact it might be the best to trade with less cars during such periods to minimize the risks.
Expecting some going back to normal for the next weeks.
Another thing to consider for fine tuning a time based system is when the US are changing daylight savings time (DST) two weeks earlier than Europe as we had past week and the coming...
Normalizing expected too within 10 days.
