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Some Damokles Swords are at the horizon on this weekend:
• G7 summit in Hiroshima (with G7 non-member Selenskyi in person)
• Sanctions of G7 against Russia (decisions)
• US Debt ceiling, banking testimony and economic data
• Ukraine's defense offensive start
• China's response on G7 decisions
President Biden couldn't wait at G7 summit because he needs to present on the Weekend in USA for the Debt Ceiling results in his country
Markets and Indexes will be prepared for any development and most of the markets around the world are responding directly on the outcome of this new peak of debt of the USA.
As the DAX is wandering up down with Americans main indexes we will get the first results on Monday morning:
I am following this development exactly. The bias is long - means the debt ceiling should get higher when things are fixed by end of the Weekend.
A little bit melancholy I would like to warn you, when it comes to this point, not to be completely blinded by the terrible, western war propaganda, when it comes to this, since months announced offensive of the Ukrainians.
Without going further into the details, since this is a forum on the subject of "Future trade", I want to advise you and others to concentrate in no case on such a, as the Western propaganda calls it with everything that it throws new into this war, as a "game changer" titled or at all to make a trade decision purely in the future trade to it.
I am aware that this will not go down well with some, but since I have been observing this war for over a year on a daily basis through various / countless sources and channels and have listened to dozens, no houndert of hours of analysis on this war in this year, from East, West, Middle East, South America, China, India and Europe sources, I know what I am talking about and what is really justifiable and has hands and feet.
I will not post about this topic in the future, but just wanted to give these thoughts to a trader I really respect.
Thank you very much for your open thoughts to a delicate theme of my last post - concerning a short part of the war in Ukraine. Done in a short sentence of my post.
It was not my intention to impose having some view into the future.
As an economist I am very aware about the threats of Russian war in Ukraine with all the negative impacts - especially for Europe. Thus to the markets. And it influences parts of my CO2 projects I am working on since years.
Let me elaborate a bit: I made around 10 visits to Ukraine since 2015 - right after the Maidan (2014). Unfortunately first the restrictions of Covid and right after the war blocked my visits and my hopes to finalize my mentioned projects (West-Ukraine near Belarus with swamp area).
I have visited several times Odessa (with visits driven by my hobby - the wineries west of the town), Kharkiv and region, Kiew and some others.
I do have family in Kharkiv: grandfather worked in the Antonov company and built parts of the largest cargo plane. He is Russian. The rest of his family is Ukrainian. Very mixed and therefore complicated. Then I have Ukrainian friends in Odessa, in Lviv, in Warsaw who fled from Kharkiv, in Germany and in Switzerland. Even here I have projects with people from Ukraine.
Every day I get direct information from the various friends sources about the war.
So - I think I do have a very good insight into the complicated situation - and this by people who live still or lived there. Thanks to this it influences my decisions in my trading strategies as well.
I am very happy to see the clear vision of Ukrainian people to protect themselves and that they will build up their country. This unbelievable war has to find a soon end as it is a melting pot of money and threatens millions of people.
Happy weekend
GFIs1
PS: My plan is to visit Lviv (West Ukraine) in a few weeks. So some absence of the trading is ahead.
DAX made a new ATH @ 16332 and killed the one from 2021 by far on Friday. Will be interesting to see the development this week
DAX pre cash 7:30 @ 16296 which is near the cash closing of Friday
edit 9:08 - IB start killed the 16k line already
edit 10:07 - on track. Price might get down to 15700 before the weekend
edit 10:09 - IFO numbers better than expected: up today 94,8 from last 92,2
edit 12:44 - a TP sits @ 15754 (which I will take if we get there before end of the trade)
*** let it run to 17:00 - (lame duck - the power is where?)
