On vacation this week...Took this trade this AM

Took a couple of short trades earlier in the AM right as market opened for 2R loss
One trade was a Standard TS-3 short for a 1R loss (there was room to the 15 min support) Against the Gap fill
Other was a DP long trade

Trade: End of W5 to W4 DP WPT R4.2 Target

Markets moving down below 15min Support to new lows after initial move to close GAP Did not take a Standard TS-3 Short today because of 15 min support level (R6.3)

Once markets moved below that level shorts were in the playbook
Auto DP short trade at the end of a Wave-5 impulsive move
DP trades in MTP indicate divergence in the market as well
ES was indicating an overbought stochastic so I was confident taking the trade

Lessons Learned
Mismanaged a good trade today... a slight wiggle shook me out of a good trade
This is a trend for me.... Need to just let the trades play out and let the math work

Market Context:

Outside GAP down on a Holiday session
Sell Day would favor longs off 15 Min Support

Initially took a long trade that got stopped out... I took the trade just as the market was opening Not a good plan unless your stops are large...there always seems to be large bars and volatility at the open knocking me out of a profitable trade.

Here is a trade I did take but failed again as in my last post... squeamish on a market wiggle and exited... profitable but not nearly as profitable as it could have been

Trade Setup

TF06-12 TS-4 Short on 144Tic 24hr Chart

Notes:

1. Standard MTP trade Setup on a black STF
2. Stoch pointed to "overbought"
3. Nice ABC pattern coming Correction off the end of an impulse move down from a significant DP (IE ABC was a wave-2 corrective pattern)
4. Therefore the trade could possibly be a Wave-3 Play

Trade Management

1. Initial Target was the TS-4 Target
2. If market moved below the Wave-B Pivot DP and Start of Wave-A pivots then that would be a good confirmation of Wave-3

Lessons Learned:

Hate to say it again but got shaken out (fear of loss...residual emotion from losing trade taken at market open)
Gut feel was that the price action favored the short continuing...but was already out of trade

Trade Setup is an End of Wave-5 Trade initially to the Wave-4 DP Target

I was in this trade and made the same error as earlier today. (Very humbling/ Embarrassed)

Needed to let the trade play out... the fundamentals were all good with markets in sync

Chart Snaps
1) Trade Entry
2) Where it ended up

Razor 

Market Context: Outside GAP down on a Holiday session Sell Day would favor longs off 15 Min Support Initially took a long trade that got stopped out... I took the trade just as the market was opening Not a good plan unless your stops are large...there always seems to be large bars and volatility at the open knocking me out of a profitable trade. Here is a trade I did take but failed again as in my last post... squeamish on a market wiggle and exited... profitable but not nearly as profitable as it could have been Trade Setup TF06-12 TS-4 Short on 144Tic 24hr Chart Notes: 1. Standard MTP trade Setup on a black STF 2. Stoch pointed to "overbought" 3. Nice ABC pattern coming Correction off the end of an impulse move down from a significant DP (IE ABC was a wave-2 corrective pattern) 4. Therefore the trade could possibly be a Wave-3 Play Trade Management 1. Initial Target was the TS-4 Target 2. If market moved below the Wave-B Pivot DP and Start of Wave-A pivots then that would be a good confirmation of Wave-3 Lessons Learned: Hate to say it again but got shaken out (fear of loss...residual emotion from losing trade taken at market open) Gut feel was that the price action favored the short continuing...but was already out of trade

Razor,

I can relate to what you described all to well. You make some very import statements that you may want to try and address. When you say you felt Squeamish, or you have fear of loss and residual emotion, these are the things that I think are dictating your trading more than the method. I say this because that is how its been for me.

I'm reading this book and I thought I'd pass along the website where you can get the book. Its about being Mindful when you trade and not mindless. You want to be aware of your thoughts, but don't let the thoughts dictate your decisions. Easy, no, but I think we need to get to this point to ultimately succeed.

trader_psychology

David

David_R 

Razor, I can relate to what you described all to well. You make some very import statements that you may want to try and address. When you say you felt Squeamish, or you have fear of loss and residual emotion, these are the things that I think are dictating your trading more than the method. I say this because that is how its been for me. I'm reading this book and I thought I'd pass along the website where you can get the book. Its about being Mindful when you trade and not mindless. You want to be aware of your thoughts, but don't let the thoughts dictate your decisions. Easy, no, but I think we need to get to this point to ultimately succeed. trader_psychology David

Thanks! Iwill have a look at the link / Book
Razor

Market Landscape:

- Fed Day later in the Afternoon
- Big run-up yesterday during RTH and in the after market hours (propelled by Apple news)
- Outside Gap Up today (Large Gap)


Thought process

• Initially I was thinking long because I figured there was probably some pent up buying pressure
• Took a profitable TS-3 Long toward the 15 Min Resistance DP
• If I got that impulsive move down off the 15min Resistance followed by an ABC correction... I was looking for any Auto Trade setup to the short side for an Holy Grail.
  
  Holy Grail Basics for a Short Trade:

1. Market moves up to the Major 15min Resistance Zone
2. Market then makes an impulsive move away from the 15min Resistance DP (wave 1 impulsive down)
3. Market makes an ABC correction (wave-2 Corrective)
4. Target is Wave-3 WPT

Actual Trade Taken:

- I took a failed TS-4 just prior to this trade...re-entered because the trade set-up was still good
- Exit Target was the Wave-3 Typical WPT for a R/R 6.3
- The 133T chart actually had a better R/R because the entry bar was smaller (R/R 12.3) allowing for tighter stop and more contracts

Other Thoughts
- Sometimes minute-charts work best and sometimes the TIC-charts work best
- I am getting used to TF price action on the 133/144 TIC charts and therefore tend to stick with the Tic Charts unless there is too much noise then I go back to the minute charts.
- When volume is low... 133/144 TIC charts actually have less noise then minute charts (example ETH)
- Bottom line if there is a lot of noise in one time frame; I switch to the other another always searching for the best representation of actual market price action
- This was probably a risky trade on a Fed Day...but the price action looked good so I took it
- Comparing the 24hr and Daily Charts…the Daily Chart actually gave a better Big- Picture look as to the market movement over the last 5 trading days




Lessons Learned:

• Things I missed:
  • I missed the divergence in the market to the downside while I was in the trade. This would have given me more confidence to leave stop at 1-Tic above entry point.
  • "If you are in a trade trust your own instincts" (Shawn D)
  • Building the “Big Picture” 15min Chart for this post, I saw a number of things I did not see until after the fact.
  • There was evidence of this potential trade the night before IE
    • Stochastics versus Price movement higher was indicating a large divergence and Overbought condition on the 15 min Big Pic Chart
    • Pre-Market it was easy to see a large Outside Gap up with room to the Major 15min Resistance Zone to relieve buying pressure coming into the 15min resistance zon
    • 5-Wave impulsive move up (although definitely not textbook) suggest a possible market reversa
• Trade management is Key
  • Moved stop to 100% mark too soon and it took me out
  • I later re-entered and set the exit to my original target this cost me profits

Attached Snap Shots:

1. Big-Pic 15 Minute Daily Chart
2. Trade Setup on 144T Chart
3. Trade Setup on 133T Chart
4. Actual Snap During Trade

Haven't posted in a while...been on the road a lot lately

Here are two from this AM.

Market Context:

Overnight move to the upside
Inside GAP up ("Inside GAPs tend to fill")
Market moved to fill GAP premarket (a good TS-3 short trade R/R4.3 w/ ATR trailing Stop)
My assessment was there was buying pressure in the market after GAP Fill

Longs seemed appropriate post market open

Trade: TS-4 Long projected R/R 7.5

Target corresponded with Major ABC...C-Wave Targets

Observations:

1. When deciding when to take a trade I often look at how the setup looks visually as well as the price action leading up to the trade:
- I like to see an ABC correction off the end of a Larger Degree Trend or move
- In this case the the LDT was a Major Wave consisting of intermediate impulsive move up
- Followed by an ABC correction


2. In this particular case the 133Tic chart seemed to eliminate some of the noise by minimizing the time domain

3. Sometimes minute charts provide a better trade...I tend to like TIC charts until there is just too much noise / chop

4. In terms of $ made on the trade... an important observation is the number of contracts you can trade on your account...

IE you may not have enough margin to trade 8-contracts

5. Irregardless of the number of contract you can trade the trade is still a R/R of 7.5 therefore if you only traded one or two contracts you still made 7.5 times the $ you risked (1 contract = $380, 2 contracts=$760)

Attached Charts

1) TS-4 Long (133T)
2) TS-1 Short / TS-4 Long
3) Same Trade with Major Wave-C WPT's
4) Trade on the 1 minute Charts for comparision

Missed most of this...stepped away from computer at wrong time...Late entry had to close out position early due to stop R/R

Total R/R = 7.8

Haven't post in a very long time but here is a quick BTC/USD forecast using Ninja Trader and MTPredictor addon:

BTC appears to be consolidating at 240 Min Decision Point (Read Fib level)

The attached 60 minute chart appears to be a textbook Elliot 5 Wave move up.

I was amazed at how well the market corrected at The Wave2 and Wave4 software predicted Zones!

Market is at key Decision point IE Resistance Fib level:

I'm interested to see if BTC reverses to the "Dp off the Wave 4" IE the $10,546 level or the Wave5 continues upward to the Typical @ 12,389 level or extended Wave 5 Levels.

I'm thinking CME and Nasdaq BTC futures on the 10th and 18th December will give some clarification