The soybean market is up strong again today. From my 1190 position I have now moved my stop three times. Currently it's at 1210. Large volume in all the agriculture markets today.

Same story as yesterday on the mini so far. There is clear resistance at 1315, but it doesn't want to go much below 1305 either. My current position is long from 1300 with a stop working at 1300. I entered this trade one week ago on the 18th, and I moved the stop up to break even on the 19th. Since then, nuffin'. Zilch. I haven't had too many trades last this long, and I know I've never gone so long on a trade without moving my stop.

Goes to show you, anything can happen on any day in these markets. You just never know. For instance, my shortest trade ever lasted literally about 15 seconds. It was on the Swiss Franc last summer during the height of its volatility. I entered, and I 'm not kidding you I watched the market plunge down in seconds to hit my stop .004 away ($500). Damndest thing I ever saw.

So I'll continue to watch the mini. Something will happen sooner or later.

My soybean stop just got hit so I'm out. This trade resulted in a 20-cent profit. Now I'll just watch the market for the next possible setup.

The soybeans have rallied from its morning lows and I just initiated a buy at 1220 (I actually got filled at 1220.75...ugh!). After my previous trade was stopped out I waited for a close above the WMA, then for the price to go higher than that closing bar's high, then a buy-in at the next number ending in 0. Note on the chart how the market essentially bounced off the 180 WMA. I see this alot in a trending market. It's too bad my previous trade got stopped out only to have the price go back up, but that is a cost of doing business with the market.

With yesterday's Fed announcement (I suppose that was the reason but I don't really pay attention to fundamentals or news) the s&p surged higher, enabling me to move my stop to 1310.

Soybeans moved up to 1230 this morning, and so sticking with my plan I moved my stop from 1210 to 1220 for an approximate break even. I have a saying that goes: first break even, then profit. If I can get to break even then it's a good trade. The pressure is off, and at this point it's house money. All I can do is ride the trend as far as it'll go.

My long, looong s&p trade finally ended yesterday when my stop was hit at 1310 for a 10-point profit. Simultaneously, I was given the green light to sell at 1310 with a protective stop placed at 1320. This was all at the end of yesterday's session. The market traded higher overnight, getting within a couple ticks of hitting my stop, and this morning I even placed a buy order at 1320 in anticipation of the market going higher. The market has dropped, however, so I am still short from 1310 with a stop working at 1320.

Even though I made 10 points of profit on the s&p yesterday, I had some bad luck. Under my system I don't move my stop until the market hits the next highest/lowest number ending in 0. Yesterday the market got within 1 tick of hitting 1330, which would have enabled me to move my stop from 1310 to 1320 and lock in an additional 10 points of profit.





I saw the market hit 1329.75. Should I have moved my stop when it got so close? In hindsight, yeah, but we don't have that luxury when we trade. I watched the market go down and figured it would go back up. The trend was up. The chances of it going down 20 points, which it did, were pretty small I figured.

Sometimes in the past I have moved my stop prematurely, then the market runs down, hits my stop, then runs back up. This has taught me to just stick to my guns. That's what I did yesterday, playing the market like it would go higher. It's just bad luck. But over time the luck evens out. It's like in baseball. A bad hop on a ground ball, a close pitch that should have been a strike. It all evens out. You gotta just keep plugging away, keep showing up.

10 and 20 point moves are nice, and I'll take them when I can get them. But what I'm really looking for, and where my system really shines, are the big fish. The 40 and 50 point moves.

With a close on the 30-minute chart below the 180 WMA, and a subsequent move below that close, the soybeans have set up for a sell at 1210. I have not gone short yet on soybeans. I have an open stop market order to sell at 1210. All I have to do is wait for the market to go down, or if it goes up I cancel the order.

There are three simple steps to my system: a setup, a confirmation, and a buy/sell. The rest is waiting and watching.

The March s&p is lower overnight and this morning. I went short on Thursday at 1310, endured choppy action on the Friday overnight and day sessions, but the market has now turned lower and I have moved my stop from 1320 to 1310, ensuring an approximate break even on this trade.





Soybeans, meanwhile, gave me a sell signal last night: