WilleeMac 

For me this exercise has confirmed that weird things happen at weird hours. -Bill_M

Thanks, that helps. I will caution you of one thing, really two things, actually four things. The time changes in the Spring and Fall in Europe and then again in the U.S.. IMO, the best stats I've gotten were the ones I continually monitor. What I mean by that is if I do a study and get a result of say 65% and then I do that study again every three months (quarterly) and continue to get a similar result of say 60% to 70% I feel a lot more confident in my analysis/theory. Think in terms of the old standard deviation of the continuously monitored averages "skool". I use plenty of adding machine tape, I still believe some things are best done with paper and pen. Sticking to this topic, after the Global time change issue is alleviated then I have to look for Holidays, again Asian, European and U.S., nothing, believe me nothing is as simple as it looks when trying to find an "edge" in the market. IMO, this is the work of trading. That said, I like what wldman once posted, (I'll paraphrase) "If you have a goose that lays golden eggs, would you give out maps to the hen house?" Don't ask ME, ask a traders at GS, JPM or any big firm,,,, IMO, we (retail traders) don't have edges, we only have illusions of them, why?? Because SIZE is an edge. Show the edge of a ten lot trader to a fifty lot lot trader and that edge will disappear PDQ. I don't want to start a pissing match here, this is only my opinion. I have pages of averages and the standard deviations of those averages for the 6E, but they don't by themselves make an edge, it's what we do with the information we glean that "becomes" the trading system.

By running the numbers (Cashish started it ) it pointed me towards this



-Bill

@Cashish

I just finished plugging in the formula's for the spreadsheet you posted on JUL 10

Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist There's no School like the Old School The Follow-Up I've been trying to get this posted before the FOMC Minutes and "Ben's" speech. I find these numbers often stop Rallies or Declines in the aftermath of news, we'll see if …

I wanted to say thank you, very helpful and very informative

-Bill

Muriel Siebert

With respect, a little Friday Fun.


I think we probably all know who Muriel Siebert is, most notably, the first woman to own a seat on the NYSE.

This video is a little poor but she tells a very short version of her story and asks others to rise to the challenge and encourage others.

There's a little known fact that Muriel Siebert was also a yo-yo Champion at Doan Elementry School in Cleveland Ohio, I wonder if she's seen this guy?
If you haven't, you won't be disappointed.

WilleeMac 

I wanted to say thank you, very helpful and very informative -Bill

You're most welcome. This is a quick response to your post. Since these numbers are generated prior to the session open(s) you could project them on a chart,,, may be something like this.

There's no School like the Old School

Yo-Yo's, B-B guns and Darts

Anyone who's followed this thread may have noticed a few unorthodox suggestions that I've found helpful in my personal journey of trading the market, if so this post won't disappoint. There was a reason for posting the Muriel Siebert video, it was the Yo-Yo, I have three of them at my trading station, I seem to get them quite frequently in my Christmas stocking. I get them because "Santa" knows I use them, I use them to occupy my time when I'm waiting, or better put, occupy my mind. One of the biggest hurtles I had to cross in my trading was waiting, waiting for the market to move to an area where I either wanted to enter a position or waiting for the market to move to my predefined target.

I read this post the other day and thought, Larry nailed it, with two words. Thanks @FB2012 for the post.

Webinar: Larry Pesavento on Chart Geometry and Patterns Today I received, the signed copy of Larrys book, i asked him to wish me the most important qualities a trader would need to get successful. According to Larrys autograph, discipline and patience are the most important ones. Big Mike thank you …

IMO, those two words have caused me more headaches than all the other aspects of trading combined. Who among us hasn't entered a trade out of sheer boredom only to take a loss when price moved against us to the level we initially wanted to enter? Who among us hasn't exited a profitable trade with a few ticks of profit only to see price continue in the favorable direction shortly after we closed the trade? Discipline and patience, peas and carrots, horse and carriage and love and marriage I'm not sure, but I don't think I can have one without the other.

Back to the Yo-yo. For me, if I enter a trade and it goes my way and stalls, I start rethinking my analysis. The problem is, I have a profit on the trade and don't want to give it back! The "paper" profit, that all I have to do is click the mouse to make it "realized" profit clouds my judgement, the longer the wait the "cloudier" my judgement becomes. Maybe I was wrong, why did I think price was going "way up there" NOW it looks like it's going to fall to "way down here"! I don't believe I'm alone in this line of thinking. We all know the ending, I close out the trade for 6 ticks of profit and the next two bars trade through my target, just as the analysis that got me in the position projected. Discipline and patience, discipline to stick to my original plan (entry and target) and patience to allow the trade to work to fruition. When I began to realize how much my mind was influenced by "paper profits" when I was holding a winning trade I had to develop a method, any method to force my mind to "overlook" the "paper profits" and remain focused on the analysis, hence the Yo-yo. I've written before of fixing a lamp and changing out a flush valve in my toilet, all these activities were an attempt to shift the focus of my mind from the "small" profit I was seeing on my screen to much larger profit my analysis projected was in this move/trade. My Yo-yo demands my concentration, if I don't focus on what I'm doing I end up with a tangle of string wrapped around my "mouse hand", something to keep in mind. I also have a dart board in my office, I'm a bullseye shooter, I don't even know how to score points, I just use it to shift my focus. I'll make a suggestion here, if you try the dart board method make sure you have a large bare wall behind it! I my experience, dart throwing requires much more muscle control, and when I stood up from my desk all "freaked out" over a $100 paper profit, I was amazed how out of control of simple muscle motions I was! This works! I've reduced my "dart" target area to a lone cork dart board on the far wall in my office, but believe me I have dozens of small holes in the woodwork to prove what I'm saying. I use these methods often, so often in fact I get bored "walking the dog" and throwing "bulls eyes" btw, I have many darts, it saves walking back and forth. A few years ago I added a pistol rage to my office! It's a BB gun, I took a heavy cardboard box and beefed up the rear panel, then I taped some heavy plastic to the front, BB's go in, but they don't come out. I tape some small targets to the front and can shoot about 16 feet from my desk.

The whole idea here is to "trick" yourself into practicing discipline and patience when waiting for the market to move. IMO, if I find myself re-analyzing the market and re-thinking my homework, I'm out of control. Now, don't get me wrong, there are times when I want to be on the edge of my seat, whacking the bid for a few 6/8 tick trades, but when a Big Fish is hooked and pulling out line I need to loosen the drag and let him run.

Back to Muriel Siebert, After she got her seat on the exchange her history of being a Yo-Yo Champion circulated around the floor. Of course she was asked to "show her stuff" and she did. Then other traders began "pulling out" their Yo-yo's while waiting through the boring periods. I believe the "fad" even made it's way to Chicago. In fact, so many Yo-yo's began oscillating on the floor at the NYSE that it appeared to be be unprofessional to the management and a "rule" was enacted banning all Yo-Yo's from the trading floor! Muriel Siebert, IMO, She's quite a gal!

There's no School like the Old School

Taylor's Theory

There's no School like the Old School

More Classic Taylor Theory

The Sell Day

Note: This is not the End of Day chart.

There's no School like the Old School

Taylor Short Sale Day

Note: This is not the End of Day chart.

There's no School like the Old School

Winning Gold

If you want to win gold you have to take risks. This picture didn't just happen, the photographer made several attempts to capture a photo of Gabby at the height of one of her jumps, looking straight up into space. This is an amazing photo of a truly amazing athlete. What I find most amazing is the point of contact on the landing, the width of a balance beam is 10 centimeters or 3.9 in. Think about that, the width of a two by four! Personally, I have trouble walking on a 2x4 when it's laying flat on the ground!

In the chapter on Short Sale Day, Taylor explains, "Should the 'sell off' be severe and with activity ,,,,,we cover our short sale on dullness ,,,,. We are then out of the market and we stay out. We wait for our next play which is that Buy Day Objective, no matter what the market does after we cover and get out."

Why would Taylor suggest to stay out, "no matter what the market does," and "wait for our next play?" There are many reasons (described in the book) and risk is his greatest concern. This is the third day with consecutive higher highs, Taylor knows a Higher close is very possible. He is controlling risk. One other line in this chapter that I'll take out of context is, ",,,,let it alone-for not knowing what it might do,,,."

Just as Gabby at a very young age overcame the risks of pursuing her passion (I assume), Taylor also learned to overcome risk by, "We wait,,,,,,,, no matter what the market does after we cover and get out." This sounds a bit like, "One and Done," to me!