He's Back!!

and it's Hammer Time!!

Nice example of resistance (1.3413.... so far) becoming support. We've exceeded the Ave Range, BUT we've had some "Big uns" lately, maybe we'll probe the high, it is Friday after all. A close above those highs would make the Sunday night open interesting,,,, IMO.

Some Charts



We did probe that high, came up a little short though, 1 tick under the X2 Resistance.



And 3 ticks short of this Major 50% retracement level, what a shame.

I'm not sure this post is going to work, there are (suppose to be) 8 charts here.

This is the link to the post.

EURUSD M6E/6E Euro Your analysis is beyond me, but Thank You for the post. Define the words, "long term," :) I do, sit back and enjoy. If I looked at this chart I would say the price action was range bound. If I looked at this chart I …

I posted this in the Euro/USD thread on Sept 30

If I looked at this chart I would say the price action was range bound.



If I looked at this chart I would say the price action was range bound also.



Yes, there's a point to this, the two charts above are the Euro Monthly (first chart) and Euro Daily (second chart). The Monthly goes back to 2004 the Daily 2007. I believe most traders would say there's no clear direction apparent on either of these two charts (I may be wrong).

Here's my idea, Ben Bernanke has been the chairman of the Federal Reserve since February 2006, his "rule" encompasses the entire Daily chart. He's had his hands full during his tenure that's for sure. In 2008 he introduced QE-1 and the Euro responded as indicated in the chart below.



Twenty two days shy of two years later the Chairman announced QE-2 and the Euro responded as indicated in this chart.



In both of these charts something caused the dominate direction of the market to reverse. Soon after the announcement of QE-1 the Euro changed direction and moved 2141 points in the other direction. Similarly, shortly after the announcement of QE-2 something caused the Euro to change it's dominate direction and move 1406 points in the other direction. This all may be coincidence, I'm not sure, could just be the enigma of the market and nothing more than random movements.

But what if, Ben Bernanke actually knows what he's doing, and realizes the "Tea Party" might just drive a wedge through the middle of the Republican Party and screw up the mid term elections more than usual. This might just cause a major shift in the congress and he (Ben) might just have to single handedly support the Dollar while all the congressmen (new and old) wander around the halls of the capital building with their heads up their asses for another two years.

I believe the 50% line between the movement after QE-1 and the 50% line after the movement of QE-2 is no coincidence. If Ben was "shooting" for the middle of the road with QE-1, two years later he was still "dead on." If he (Ben) was "shooting" for the middle of the road whit QE-2, two years later he was still "dead on."



What about QE-3 ? Is Ben Bernanke an infantry man dragging around a bazooka, or is he a more intelligent, patient, stalker type of solider, more of a sniper, one shot, one kill. Does he always wait two years to take his shot, it seems so. How about the position on the chart where he's taken his first two shots, sure the hype will move the market prior to the announcement, but he knows that. I believe the hype of QE-3 moved the market to a similar vantage point for Ben to take his third shot with QE-3, a near perfect position from the grassy knoll, the low of the reversal move of QE-2. This is similar to the vantage point of QE-2, the high of the reversal move of QE-1.



My theory (idea) is the market will find a bottom soon, either where we are now at 1.2839 or lower, may be 1.2700 and make a run to 1.3595, that 50% area of the first two QEs. If I had 10 million dollars I'd put it all on this trade, long from the area of 1.2850 to 1.2700, target 1.3600. I'm a day trader, and I don't have a 10 million dollar account so this post is the best I can do.





This Morning's Daily Chart

Hi Guys,

I enjoy reading and learning from your transcripts in the chat box.
Sounds like eminitrdr needs to visit us in FL

I have a question about the "Big Dog"....the cash market I am assuming.

How do you follow the VWAP on cash when there is no volume info?

Thanks in advance,

Miles

MilesT 

I have a question about the "Big Dog"....the cash market I am assuming. How do you follow the VWAP on cash when there is no volume info? Thanks in advance, Miles

Ensign Software uses simulated volume which is a tick count of changes of the bid. This simulated data can then be used to chart "volume" studies. Here are two charts the cash (the Big Dog) and the 6E (the "tail") with some random lines, I intentionally "snipped" out the data bar,, I feel the software does a pretty good job of simulating volume.

@MilesT,

Thanks for your kind words above. If you were observing the chatbox on Friday morning, here was a very nice call Mr. Cashish made. I don't know how much you have read, studied, and understand his Old School method. I believe knowing why he was willing to accept the RISK his on this particular trade is important.

I'll post a couple of charts to show what I was watching when the call was made. Only Mr. Cashish knows why he entered where and when he did. I have my own thoughts but it's just my humble opinion Was it something he saw on one of the posted charts, another one of his charts, or pure instinct/intuition on his part? Don't forget the importance of location and normal rotations...VP, VWAP, ADR, etc. Believe me, I have certainly asked my share of questions here in the thread and elsewhere.

emini

@MilesT,

More important (IMO) than what Mr. Cashish saw is what you see. He has explained, time and again, the fundamentals of his method. Always know where price is for that specific trading session; the Globex, EU, and US sessions.

Remember one of the main tenets of his method...entries outside the VA (forbidden zone) after a normal rotation (14/16). Attached is what I saw and why I entered. If one has read and studied the entire thread, he has given you all the elements...make it your own

emini

eminitrdr 

@MilesT, I don't know how much you have read, studied, and understand his Old School method. emini

I have read thru the entire thread more than once and come back on a regular basis for more nuggets.
My charts are simpler than yours (I cannot manipulate the volume profiles for one...) but I use the same principles
of price action and volume to do my trading. I am much appreciative of all the insights I have gained watching the two of you interact. Keep it up!!!!