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Price Forecasting with chaos


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Price Forecasting with chaos

  #141 (permalink)
 Simba 
Irvine California
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: AMP MT5,Tradovate
Trading: ES
Posts: 17 since Feb 2011
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 17

ecmf,

You asked me how I did it...ok,take a look at the attachment for EURGBP,you will see 3 triangles

First triangle starts on December 13th,you can see a high =0.8480 then a BP=0.8393 which gives an equilibrium image target at 0.8306...The target was slightly exceeded with a low on Dec 21st at 0.8302

Second Triangle...0.8302 to BP 0.8357 gives me a target of 0.8412..again,slightly exceeded on Dec 29th at 0.8420

Third triangle,still evolving..High at 0.8420..BP 0.8354 this projects a target low-as long as the distribution profile doesn´t change- at 0.8288...once it completes and reaches equilibrium,we can start a new triangle.

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  #142 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 54


loxics View Post
You said that your chart is composed of only raw ticks. Does each stroke on a 正 require certain number of ticks, or is single tick data for each line of the 正 symbol?

How does the program know how big each triangle data size should be? Do you define it or is it automatically generated for you with different data size per each vertical slice?

Also how is the horizontal spacing (varying differences in vertical slice spacing) not affect the BP? If you combine different triangles with its own arbitrarily determined triangle data set (since no time unit interval is consistent), the larger triangle you draw that combines two triangles will have a Image Point (support level) be also arbitrarily set. To say it in other words, how you group each triangle data and how u define the triangle size also change the expected Image Point in the end, no?

Thanks!

Hello Loxics,

thank you for your interest and question and i will try to answer it.

There are 5 ticks to each 正 character.
A triangle is created with a high/low/BP with another BP, The software will combine ticks with user-defined interval and the user can then find his required equilibrium.
The size of a triangle required is determined by the objectives of a user and his trading time frame. Longer trading time frame will mean a bigger eq.

Hope this helps.

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  #143 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 54



Simba View Post
ecmf,

You asked me how I did it...ok,take a look at the attachment for EURGBP,you will see 3 triangles

First triangle starts on December 13th,you can see a high =0.8480 then a BP=0.8393 which gives an equilibrium image target at 0.8306...The target was slightly exceeded with a low on Dec 21st at 0.8302

Second Triangle...0.8302 to BP 0.8357 gives me a target of 0.8412..again,slightly exceeded on Dec 29th at 0.8420

Third triangle,still evolving..High at 0.8420..BP 0.8354 this projects a target low-as long as the distribution profile doesn´t change- at 0.8288...once it completes and reaches equilibrium,we can start a new triangle.

Hello Simba,

many thanks for showing how you do your analysis, attached is a chart of EUR/GBP using 90 days of data.

Hope it will be helpful.

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Size:	37.8 KB
ID:	58589  
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  #144 (permalink)
 Simba 
Irvine California
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: AMP MT5,Tradovate
Trading: ES
Posts: 17 since Feb 2011
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 17


ecmf View Post
Hello Simba,

many thanks for showing how you do your analysis, attached is a chart of EUR/GBP using 90 days of data.

Hope it will be helpful.


Thanks,your posts are always helpful

Please see the updated Image target low,due to the change in the BP...as of now the target to complete the distribution is EURGBP 0.8268.

Regards
S

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ID:	58601  
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  #145 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 54

here are 2 EURUSD charts showing possible price movements.

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  #146 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 54

With reference to the 1st chart in the previous post (attached here too), a sell was done as price went below 1.3020 breaking equilibrium

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 13020
Stop = above 13048
Target = trailing stop used

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ID:	58611  
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  #147 (permalink)
 Simba 
Irvine California
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: AMP MT5,Tradovate
Trading: ES
Posts: 17 since Feb 2011
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 17


Simba View Post
Thanks,your posts are always helpful

Please see the updated Image target low,due to the change in the BP...as of now the target to complete the distribution is EURGBP 0.8268.

Regards
S

Please see attached chart.

Previously mentioned 0.8268 target for a low has been slightly exceeded,with an actual Low at 0.8263.
A new distribution has started from 0.8263,and this allows for a low risk long entry.
Entry@ 0.82682 Preliminary TP 0.8344 SL 0.8248...3:1 Reward to Risk ratio.

ecmf: I thank you ,and Mr Chen,for your kindness in sharing this method,it is really extraordinary.I have posted a few charts using MP,due to:1-Your comments regarding practical unavailability of J-Charts,at least till Mr Chen changes his mind and...2-Other members-including you- asked me if I could explain in more detail what I hinted in previous posts.

I do not want to hijack your thread,so,I will reduce my rate of posting here,even if I may have several questions regarding finetuning of trades,which I will post in a few days if you do not mind me doing so.

Kindest Regards
S

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Size:	74.2 KB
ID:	58619  
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  #148 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 54


Simba View Post
Please see attached chart.

Previously mentioned 0.8268 target for a low has been slightly exceeded,with an actual Low at 0.8263.
A new distribution has started from 0.8263,and this allows for a low risk long entry.
Entry@ 0.82682 Preliminary TP 0.8344 SL 0.8248...3:1 Reward to Risk ratio.

ecmf: I thank you ,and Mr Chen,for your kindness in sharing this method,it is really extraordinary.I have posted a few charts using MP,due to:1-Your comments regarding practical unavailability of J-Charts,at least till Mr Chen changes his mind and...2-Other members-including you- asked me if I could explain in more detail what I hinted in previous posts.

I do not want to hijack your thread,so,I will reduce my rate of posting here,even if I may have several questions regarding finetuning of trades,which I will post in a few days if you do not mind me doing so.

Kindest Regards
S

Hello Simba,

do feel free to ask questions regarding J-Chart and you can post your charts too. Glad to know that J-Chart makes a difference in your trading.

Hope this helps.

Update: Simba, please note that there are some fundamental differences between J-Chart and Market profile, trades using J-Chart are always with the trend (breaking of equilbrium), the theory of J-Chart is based on Chinese ancient philosophy and is consistent with chaos theory and not on statistics (standard deviation, normal distribution). It is the practical usage of chaos theory.

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  #149 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 54

details to follow.

Details:

From the chart, it is very clear that EURUSD is in a downtrend, BPs are moving down. a sell order was taken as follows:

Trade Timeframe = intrdaday
Trend = down
Entry = below 12897 (break of EQ 12943-12920-12897)
Stop = above 12934 (BP12934)
Target = around 12799

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ID:	58703  
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  #150 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 54


Interested readers can look at the expected fate of EURUSD.

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