Providing an update to the Monthly 6E chart analysis from Oct 10th and below is some of the text from that analysis which refers to the above left hand chart.

On the right hand chart I am pointing your attention to the black ma which in the earlier #2510 post I referred to as the backbone of these multi-year swings in the Euro. If you read the comments below and compare my expectations from early October with the 6E's behavior in the months since you will understand why this is relevant in this time period.

Comment from Post #2510 from October 10th.

>>Several thing to notice on the Monthly chart at the start of this week. At the break of the white uptrend line, a parallel to the 2017 - 2018 uptrend line, price found support on a black dashed line that is a lower parallel to the similar descending trend line across the Jan and June Highs. On first glance this suggests that a channel is possibly shaping up and the price's next move will be a bounce off this 'potential' channel bottom. There is a black ma that I consider the backbone of these Multi-Year Swings... it is clear how it was Resistance for several years of the prior decline and then became Support up out of the 2020 Lows. With the test at last week's High, it has demonstrated that it is once again Resistance, further confirmation that the Multi-Year rotation has rolled over. It has been my observation that the slope of the valid channels that form tend to align with the slope of this "backbone" ma. Black dotted lines have been added to show how this aligned channel would appear. Notice the bottom line crosses the bottom edge of the S/R Band and although I do expect price to eventually fall to that edge and likely push lower, I don't necessarily expect it to happen immediately... but that is dependent on price holding the current lows. If you look at how these Monthly bars interacted with the "backbone" ma you can count a 4 - 5 bar rotation on or around the ma. Last week's High is a candidate for the last 4-5 bar (month) contact and if that stands then price has no reason to push higher to re-test that level for the next few months. And that of course suggests that the current Lows will not hold.<<

Euro is heading towards parity with the Dollar...last time that occurred was 2002.

Price is currently testing the support (yellow dash) that took a year to develop. The 6E is in the 8th bar of an @ 12 bar ( 3 year) rotation. The colored circles mark groups of similar durations which, when averaged over the full span of the chat, yields an average of 12 bars.

The horizontal grid lines are at $1000 intervals.

This is a follow up to the comments made two charts earlier at #2581

If it happened once it can happen twice.

These 6 hr bars are useful in showing the dynamics that determine the daily trends. the White boxes are the Globex 24 Hr period. That a double Top has formed that spans a 4 Week period is significant from a Bearish perspective. Earlier posts have pointed to the test of the Multi-Year backbone and over these past few weeks this level has rejected price. Higher time frame events like the turn of a multi-month rotation require significant volume and that volume requires time for the accumulation / distribution to play itself out. What this double top may represent is the turn of the multi-month event occurring at a place where it was expected to materialized. The chart shows the initial breakdown out of the double-top. When price breaks thru the middle of this 5 day S/R band a bounce off the lower inside edge is a reasonable expectation.




As for today, the cyan POC markers on this 5 Min chart clearly show the accumulation that could form the support base for the expected bounce. Marked on the prior chart are the areas of expected resistance the bounce will encounter. I do not expect it to break the upper zone. The White arrows in the 360 Min chart point to significant higher time frame levels of resistance that will suck the momentum out of any push higher.

A follow up.

Earlier # 2585: "The White arrows in the 360 Min chart point to significant higher time frame levels of resistance that will suck the momentum out of any push higher."



This 15 Min chart highlights the areas of higher time frame resistance mentioned on the earlier post # 2585 and give a good demonstration of how price reacted to these levels. If the base put in at @ 5:30 Central cannot hold then the Highs put in at @ 6:45 Central just under Friday's Close of 1.13500 become a candidate for the High of the Day.

>>the Highs put in at @ 6:45 Central just under Friday's Close of 1.13500 become a candidate for the High of the Day.<<

Going to amend this comment from the prior chart. I misspoke using the "High of the Day" reference when it should have been the "High of the 24 Hr Rotation".

In this 60 Min chart the 5:30 candle has been marked as 26 Hrs from the prior 24 Hr Low and the 7:30 High and being 24 Hrs from the prior 24 Hr High put in at 7:30 on Friday. The High of the (Globex) Day was actually the 18:30 bar on Sunday. (My 60 Min candles close on the half-hour so that they are in sync with the NY Open.)

Because I consider candle bodies when defining support and resistance, there would need to be a 60 Min Close below the 5:30 Low to qualify as a break of support. You can see that the Magenta POC's on the Market Profile of the last two 60 Min bars developed right at that prior swing low. If this is indicating the 24Hr Rotation still has some upside left then price will need to break above the Sienna 6 Hr Pivot and ma to confirm this is the case. Otherwise, if those to areas of potential resistance hold then lower levels are ahead.

Earlier in this thread the Weekly High-Low pattern was discussed (# 2551). What is relevant here is that if a Weekly candle is going to close lower then the High of the Week will typically be made on a Monday or Tuesday.

On this 15 Min chart price has pushed higher to test overhead resistance mentioned in the prior post. Two things to notice: On the bottom of the chart is the Cumulative Delta which turned negative and remained negative during this move higher and the Yellow boxes on the bars testing the 6 Hr Pivot show the high volume nodes developing 1 tick below that resistance. This behavior validates the relevance of this particular time frame's Pivot and tells us that this is where sellers were found. Might it still go higher? Of course. Will it? Ask me later.

A follow up to the prior post; " the Yellow boxes on the bars testing the 6 Hr Pivot.... tells us that this is where sellers were found. "