The Sellers playing Wack-A-Mole.... with annotation to explain the dots, dashes and some of that other confusing stuff.

glennts 

The Sellers playing Wack-A-Mole.... with annotation to explain the dots, dashes and some of that other confusing stuff.

@ glennts. I have a question I hope you don't mind answering. What were the factors that led you to place 5 contracts on your last entry shown, whereas earlier you only used one contract per entry? What I'm trying to understand is if your decision was based on money management or the price action/trade set up.

My thinking is that perhaps because you had made money from the first entries, you then had more you could risk and still be ahead for the day. Also, perhaps there was something about the price action that led you to believe this was a set up worth 5 contracts, like maybe the triple rejection from the bottom support area and high amount of volume that took place down there might have led you to feel this was a higher probability trade.

Or maybe there are other reasons I've overlooked?

Thanks for any insights you may share on this.

Thought I'd add an additional comment for @Snook.

Much of your posting was a discussion of economic fundamentals and how you see that as a context for the Euro. I completely ignore fundamentals in my trading as whatever effect they will have on the markets will be apparent in the price action. Because of that I have no opinion on the position you outlined very effectively and in great detail. I'm confident your expectation of seeing 1.15 is going to be met because price will have to pass thru that to reach my expectation of 1.13.

I'll wave as I pass by.

tradepips 

@ glennts. I have a question I hope you don't mind answering. What were the factors that led you to place 5 contracts on your last entry shown. My thinking is that perhaps because you had made money from the first entries, you then had more you could risk and still be ahead for the day. Also, perhaps there was something about the price action that led you to believe this was a set up worth 5 contracts, like maybe the triple rejection from the bottom support area and high amount of volume that took place down there might have led you to feel this was a higher probability trade.

Yes and Yes.

Price was overdue for a push up to test 6 Hr Resistance so I had confidence that out of what was then a Double Bottom the Buyers would attempt a break higher but I also recognized that the area on the chart I pointed out as 6 Hr resistance would be a tough nut to crack. When price pushed into that area momentum began to fade, my indicators showed overbought and it became clear a rotation back down was about to kick in. I had taken profits on the way up and then started to bail when the probabilities began to shift against the trade.

Three Stars for you @tradepips.

glennts 

Bob West: "@glennts's charts are a little unusual" Schnook: "must admit that I am not versed in market profile and struggle interpreting glennt's charts" Thank you both for contributing... it's getting lonely out here. As to my charts, there actually is a method behind the madness. Way back when, after several stumbles trying to make this work, I stepped back and tried to understand the problems that needed to be solved. The first realization I had was that if the majority of people attempting to trade absolutely fail, and if all of those folks are using basically the same conceptual approach to charting and analysis, if I am doing the same then aren't I just following in their footsteps and won't this bring me to the same final place. From that I decided that the route to success was down a different path. If anything, I did not want to do what everyone else was doing.... harshly...Lemmings jumping over the cliff. To this end I spent a decade to figure out what I need to see to make a profitable trade and then develop the charts and original indicators that would show me what I needed to see. For example, how many people use the canned indicators that come with their platform and keep the same default settings for those indicators.... like most people do. How many people use the same time settings. Does your 60 Min bar roll over at the top of the hour? Mine doesn't... and the reason is I do not want to be looking at what you and most other traders are looking at. I want to see what you don't see. Find you own way.

Sorry I haven't had time to come back here for a while. Things get busy sometimes.

I think your charts are fine. I enjoy them and I have at least a bit of an understanding of some of what you are doing on them. I just spend a lot more time on futures.io than I really should already, and actually have some other things to do (trading), so it's hard sometimes to give attention where I would like.

I understand your point about not doing what everyone else does. I actually am not sure that this is as important a thing as it seems, because I have observed that, generally speaking, traders usually don't trade according to their rules or indicators or systems anyway. The most common complaint I read on this forum comes down to, "Why did I not follow my rules again???" They don't follow them because their rules are not what they trade by. They trade by the seat of their pants and their impulses. (Not that I haven't done the same, of course.) So I don't really think that you would have much problem with other traders following the standard indicators, because I don't think they do anyway.

But I completely understand going your own way and developing things that show you what you have determined is important. I think everyone should do some version of this.

Again, I hope this thread will have more activity in the future. It's a shame for a major instrument not to be represented, so that traders interested in it can follow and learn and contribute to each other.

Bob.

Pointed out on this chart are the intervals between these two Multi-Day Swing Highs and between these two Multi-Day Swing Lows. The historical average of these intervals is 20 360 Min bars or 5 Days. To put this in a useful context just think of the move from H-H or L-L on Weekly candles. Tracking it this way helps you get inside those swings and regardless of your approach to trading, who would not benefit from recognizing when the High or Low of a week was being made.

Earlier posts mentioned the importance of the area Multi-Day resistance and the role it plays in declines that extend multiple weeks, seen on this chart as the middle of the S-R Band, The breaking of this resistance is a significant event and marks the end of this particular leg of the decline that began on Sept 3rd. In the charts of the past few days it was mentioned that how price was behaving had the look of accumulation and that a turn higher might be in the works. The Double Bottom of what I refer to as the Multi-Day Rotation ( Cycle) confirms that expectation.

Some valid points have been raised concerning the unusual nature of my charting and analysis. If I am to contribute to the Euro thread and discuss the "what" and "why" of the 6E, that cannot be done without posting my charts. That I am using terms and concepts as well as indicators that viewers are not familiar with is obviously a problem and I have endeavored to minimize that with explanatory comments and chart annotations. On this chart for example the Blue arrow and its label points to the area of Multi-Day Resistance that has been referenced. In earlier charts over the past few weeks there has been commentary describing how I define this area but unless the viewer has read those posts, what this chart is point out will likely not make much sense. And frankly, I don't have a solution for that.

The problem for me is that the more effort put into explaining what I do the further this thread diverges from its original intent. I could simply say the "6E is here and I think it's going there" but is there really any value in that?

As the gentleman known as Bob West has mentioned, the absence of participation in this thread by others is both noticeable and puzzling.

Need some feed back people. What is on your mind?

glennts 

As the gentleman known as Bob West has mentioned, the absence of participation in this thread by others is both noticeable and puzzling. Need some feed back people. What is on your mind?

I just don't think there are very many active traders of EUR in this forum right now. Most of the members here seem focused almost exclusively on equity index products. If you were talking about MES instead of E6 there'd probably be a lot more engagement.

Also, I think a lot of people, myself included, would benefit from getting just a brief introduction to your general approach. If such a thing already exists, but is buried ten or twenty pages back, then most casual readers probably won't ever see it. Would a trading journal perhaps be a better format?

Schnook 

I just don't think there are very many active traders of EUR in this forum right now. Most of the members here seem focused almost exclusively on equity index products. If you were talking about MES instead of E6 there'd probably be a lot more engagement. Also, I think a lot of people, myself included, would benefit from getting just a brief introduction to your general approach. If such a thing already exists, but is buried ten or twenty pages back, then most casual readers probably won't ever see it. Would a trading journal perhaps be a better format?

I think your points are spot on about the lack of participation.

I would like to engage in more active participation, but I haven't been sure of what I can post that would be helpful to others. I use the same cyclical approach that @glennts is using and his charts and analyses are definitely more developed than mine. I deleted a post a few days ago because it was discussing cycle theory and that, by itself, seems to me to be off topic to this thread. This thread is about the Euro and I think anything posted about trading the Euro using cycles, such as @glennts' approach, or any other method is good for this thread. I just don't know that I have much to contribute.

I have personally benefitted from studying every one of the charts posted recently. I hope @glennts will continue to share his insights and that others will share theirs as well. I also don't like an empty room.

tradepips 

I would like to engage in more active participation, but I haven't been sure of what I can post that would be helpful to others.

Well even things that you don't necessarily think would be helpful might still be helpful. Sometimes just making an observation or asking a simple question or can provoke fresh thought and spark a new idea for someone.

This is a discussion forum where people can share diverse perspectives and experiences in a constructive and mutually beneficial exchange of ideas. I, and I think most others here, are looking for neither teachers or students, but partners in discussion. The more thoughtful participants, the better.

tradepips

I use the same cyclical approach that glennts is using and his charts and analyses are definitely more developed than mine. I deleted a post a few days ago because it was discussing cycle theory and that, by itself, seems to me to be off topic to this thread. This thread is about the Euro and I think anything posted about trading the Euro using cycles, such as glennts approach, or any other method is good for this thread. I just don't know that I have much to contribute.

If cycles are relevant to trading the EUR then absolutely, please do post! Again I'd love to learn more about Glenn's approach as well. I actually focus most of my professional energies on bonds where I also incorporate some cycle work into my analysis. I know that it's relevant there because it helps me make profitable trades. So again, if you have something to share I would absolutely like to see it.

And Glenn, please keep it up. I imagine in time, and perhaps with a bit more background information, I'll be able to get a lot more out of your posted charts and commentaries. And who knows, maybe we can encourage a few more EUR traders to come out of the woodwork as well.

glennts 

As the gentleman known as Bob West has mentioned, the absence of participation in this thread by others is both noticeable and puzzling. Need some feed back people. What is on your mind?

First time I was ever referred to as "the gentleman known as Bob West." I actually am Bob West too.

In line with @Schnook's point, there is more interest in ES/MES and all its relatives. Some of this is because of its popularity (it's what people talk about the most), or just its recognition, and a huge amount is due to the small size of the micro, MES, which gives traders something to get their feet wet in a real market without the same level of potential loss as the emini contract (or the same cash commitment.)

I'm not familiar with the E6, frankly, nor with the ME6, but I just changed the title of the thread to include ME6, which may attract some interest.

Bob.