Schnook: " I appreciate your contributions here, but I can't appreciate them fully because I have not learned your methods. "

Hence my exploring the posting of videos that would explain my methods.

" Moreover, you indicated that there are aspects of your methodology that you do not wish to share. "

The rules I use to enter a trade are very specific. If you can offer a reason why it is to my advantage to enable others to compete with me for the same opportunities I am perfectly willing to hear what you have to say.

" You said previously that you don't pay attention to macro because your methods don't require it. That's you not watching my game. So I haven't posted more, despite there being some very interesting macro developments over the past few days."

Two points.

You have posted one chart with comments about a price target you expect to be reached some time in the future. If I am going to watch your game and learn you should at least show up to play so I can see what you do.

Although you provided a detailed explanation of macro economics to justify your assumptions it is not clear to me how useful that insight is when it comes to making a trade in the next 5 minutes. I'm certainly willing to learn anything that would be helpful to increase probable outcomes but if I can profit from taking advantage of both the long and short opportunities that occur each day, how does one fold a subjective analysis of long range EU politics into those decisions.

You have mentioned your focus has been on Bonds, a long game which explains the importance you place on macro-economics and perhaps your lack of appreciation for what goes on down here in the trenches. As Bob West has mentioned, trading is trading and by extension, charting is charting. Whether it is 1 Min or 1 month, price action and the story it tells remains the same. Tell me what bonds you follow and if I can get the data to generate analysis using what I do, perhaps we can find a middle ground.

g.

More traveling for the rest of this week and next so won't be posting for awhile.

Good luck, Be careful.

The downside of traveling is that you don't get to trade.

The upside of traveling is that at the end of a long day you occasionally get to see something like this.

Good luck, Be careful.

glennts 

The one video below is from January 6, 2012 and it coincidentally presents a situation in the ES not dissimilar from the recent 6E behavior. [yt] [/yt]

This video DID present "a situation in the ES not dissimilar from the recent 6E behavior." Once price found the MW support it searched for new highs, as shown by the MD and MW patterns preceding January 6, 2012.

EDIT: Actually, I'm referring to the August 2010 period he showed in the middle of the video clip.

#2550: " Look back over several years of Monthly bars and notice how often during each year the individual candles will interact with its Pivot and decide for yourself the likely hood of it happening again. "



Nothing complicated here. If a certain example of price behavior occurs @ 85% of the time then it is reasonable to assume that the next time it might occur... it probably will. What I wonder about as I ponder if it is worth while continuing to contribute here.... how many readers actually followed my suggestion back in #2550 to look over their charts and discover this nugget for themselves.




( Are these intrusive Poll solicitations randomly inserted into posts really necessary?)

# 2476 Aug.25th "... Compare the two white dashed uptrend lines. In 2018 price fell to this line and found support for 2 + Months and then gave it up. The bounce of the past several days is comparable to the June 2018 bounce. Is there a guarantee this behavior will repeat... absolutely not.... however if trading is about probability... where the 6E currently is in time and price is something to consider."

First touch on the inside edge of the S/R Band is usually good for a bounce. This is a Monthly chart, the Cyan rectangles represent the Year. Easy to see this has been a Year to be short and as '21 closes out and books get balanced there are Short Positions to be covered.

On this chart price tends to interact with the Black 4 period ma every 4 - 5 months. December will be the 4th month. Notice the Pivot on the Nov. bar is at 1.16030... high in the bar's range and if you compare it to earlier bottoms that were put in place, the bar that made the first attempt to reverse higher had it's Pivot mid-bar suggesting that any serious effort to push higher will take a few weeks to develop and bring us into December.

#2567 : "as '21 closes out and books get balanced there are Short Positions to be covered....any serious effort to push higher will take a few weeks to develop and bring us into December."



An attempt at a low is being made but as to if this will hold long enough to carry over into the next Month and then give an up closing December as speculated remains unclear. The story a bar tells is not finished until the bar closes and there are still 2+ trading days left.

Sometimes the most reliable indicator you have is the one between your ears.

# 2567: " First touch on the inside edge of the S/R Band is usually good for a bounce.... if you compare it to earlier bottoms that were put in place, the bar that made the first attempt to reverse higher had it's Pivot mid-bar suggesting that any serious effort to push higher will take a few weeks to develop and bring us into December "

# 2568: " An attempt at a low is being made but as to if this will hold long enough to carry over into the next Month and then give an up closing December as speculated remains unclear. "

The Close of today, the last day on the November Bar allows us to calculate the Pivot of the December Bar. 1.13861.... and the high of today's 6E trading... 1.13860. This is why tracking Pivots on higher time frames is useful and why price action is endlessly fascinating.

To push the theme of prior price behavior being predictive of current price behavior, it will be interesting to follow the "mid-bar" observation from # 2567. If Dec. is going to continue to attempt to close higher then the Monthly Pivot will fall somewhere in the Middle of the month's range. As the month builds out the range below the Pivot should @ equal the range above it. Is this what is going to happen? To develop an expectation of how any time frame may evolve and use this to inform your trading decisions, you have to have at least one leg standing on firm ground. Understanding how price behaves in particular situations is one way to achieve this.