NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





EURUSD M6E/6E Euro


Discussion in Currencies

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 402 posts (490 thanks)
    2. looks_two Cashish with 192 posts (162 thanks)
    3. looks_3 terratec with 117 posts (213 thanks)
    4. looks_4 rassi with 113 posts (110 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one glennts with 1.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two terratec with 1.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 1.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Cashish with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 882,549 views
    2. thumb_up 3,050 thanks given
    3. group 204 followers
    1. forum 2,612 posts
    2. attach_file 1,255 attachments




 
Search this Thread

EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

  #2601 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick / IQ
Trading: 6E, ES
Posts: 420 since Oct 2010
Thanks Given: 24
Thanks Received: 1,022

# 2596 >>The wildcard for the currency and equity markets is Ukraine. Ambiguity is resolved by looking to higher time frames and the Monthly charts posted in the thread point to lower prices for the 6E.

# 2597 >>To add more significance.. breaking the Daily Pivot is a comment that would suggest the High of the Week is in place...breaking the Weekly Pivot is a comment that would suggest the High of the Month is in place. This Week's and last Week's lows, the lows of the 7 day double Bottom, were put in on the Monthly Pivot. So the breaking of this area of 6 Hr support has inferences that move up through the higher time frames.

# 2599 >>If this does what it looks like it is going to do then a test of the Monthly Pivot...is the likely next stop, but not necessarily the end of the longer term move lower.







... and the ES



I confess to conflicted emotions about profiting from the news out of Ukraine.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
Build trailing stop for micro index(s)
Psychology and Money Management
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
59 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
37 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
22 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
22 thanks
The Program
20 thanks
  #2602 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick / IQ
Trading: 6E, ES
Posts: 420 since Oct 2010
Thanks Given: 24
Thanks Received: 1,022

From two days ago: >> Price now has all the excuses it needs to take out the High of last week and a failure to do so will be telling. <<

What price does not do is occasionally more informative then when price performs as expected.

I have been looking at charts on an intra-day basis for 40 yrs now and have watched and profited from many extraordinary events. It is awe inspiring how price action will often tell us that something unusual is about to occur. Absent the news, I hope you can see how the narrative in this thread, the discussion of the cyclic action of price movement, has created a context where something of this magnitude should not be a surprise.

My contribution to this thread ends with this post. Hopefully you have found something here that will be of help in your trading.

To quote the great anti-hero Arthur Morgan. : " I gave you all I had. "

Good luck, Be careful.

g.

Reply With Quote
  #2603 (permalink)
 tradepips 
Sacramento, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Trading: YM, ES
Posts: 144 since Feb 2018
Thanks Given: 573
Thanks Received: 110



glennts View Post
My contribution to this thread ends with this post. Hopefully you have found something here that will be of help in your trading.

To quote the great anti-hero Arthur Morgan. : " I gave you all I had. "

Good luck, Be careful.

g.

Thank you for all that you shared. It's what I'm using for my own trading and really helps with making sense of what is going on in the charts.

Reply With Quote
  #2604 (permalink)
Spottrader
springfield, US
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2022
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 12

I rarely trade eurusd, the fucking pig doesn't move.

Comparatively speaking. I'm sure there's people out there that think it's whacked, but to me not enough.

Again, I don't trade futures, directly spot.

Reply With Quote
  #2605 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick / IQ
Trading: 6E, ES
Posts: 420 since Oct 2010
Thanks Given: 24
Thanks Received: 1,022

Just an update on the longer term story. It's a big pix so click to enlarge and then again to show original size.


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #2606 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick / IQ
Trading: 6E, ES
Posts: 420 since Oct 2010
Thanks Given: 24
Thanks Received: 1,022

I've noticed this thread is still getting visitors so adding an update to this post found on thread page #247



glennts View Post
Big picture.



A Monthly chart going back 20 years. The Cyan blocks mark each year and show the Yearly Pivots. At this distance above the Daily and Weekly bars it is easy to see the Higher Time Frame swings that represent the economic cycles of the Euro. By averaging together the swing H-H and L - L intervals the result is an estimate of 3.5 yrs for these rotations to play out. Using this broad stroke approach you can develop a rationale for putting funds to work in Ultra Long and Ultra Short Euro ETFs.



This capture of the last 6 yrs shows why the current price action is significant to the larger story.

The circles highlight how the turn of these Multi-Year swings typically play out over a 3 - 4 month period. If you compare this years High with the High made in 2018 you can see they both were made in January. In 2018 this gave an extremely Left-translated Yearly Candle.... what you can get in a retracement inside a larger downtrend. The black 4 period ma can be understood as the Backbone of Up and Down swings.... once it breaks and turns the die is cast. Compare the two white dashed uptrend lines. In 2018 price fell to this line and found support for 2 + Months and then gave it up. The bounce of the past several days is comparable to the June 2018 bounce. Is there a guarantee this behavior will repeat... absolutely not.... however if trading is about probability... where the 6E currently is in time and price is something to consider. Notice inside this year's trading price made a lower swing High of 4 bars... now look to the left of the chart at 2016.... a lower swing High of 4 bars.

A year has passed since the above post and in the updated chart below the white square at the beginning of this recent decline will sync these two in time. If you read thru the thread you can judge for yourself the accuracy of the analysis and the price movement projections both long and short term that were made possible with an understanding of Cycle Analysis.



Added to this chart are a Stochastic which is useful in visualizing the price rotations as well as suggesting Over bought and Over Sold conditions. Notice in this current decline the Stoch. is not yet deeply oversold.

Below the Stoch. is an oscillator which subtracts the black 4 period ma from price. In Cycle Analysis Theory a ma that accurately reflects the cycle duration it averages will become the center of price rotation. If you were to snap the black 4 period ma in the chart into a straight line, this is what you would get. The inner horizontals are set at .06 and the outer are .12 and .14. Aside from confirming by the rotations that you have found the correct periodicity of this Minor Cycle, the best use is as a divergence indicator. The extent to which price moves way from its center of rotation is an expression of momentum. Moves do not typically end on strong momentum but end when momentum wains as the other side emerges and denies further progress. Compare the swing highs of this indicator with that of price. In most cases over this 20 year period, as price pushed higher to new swing highs or lows this indicator put in a lower high or a higher low. The duration between these minor highs and lows was @ 5 months. You now have a means of anticipating the end of Multi-Year swings 5 months in advance.

I always do time projections on every time frame monitored. I do this by taking the average of the prior 5 High to High or Low to Low durations. I use 5 as 3 is too sensitive and longer averages don't take into account more recent behavior. To make this easy the Ninja Drawing Tools Fib. Time Extension tool has been set up to show a 120% projection. This gives the average of 5. On the chart you can see how this was set up in 2017 and I've numbered the rotations. These rotation counts are defined as the lowest low after price broke the cyan band middle. The dotted vertical is the 120% projection and it landed on February 2020, a projection made at a distance of 3+ years that was accurate to within 1 bar of the March Low. Now that you know how this can be done, do the next projection starting with the March 2020 Low and counting back 5 iterations.

You are welcome.

"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #2607 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick / IQ
Trading: 6E, ES
Posts: 420 since Oct 2010
Thanks Given: 24
Thanks Received: 1,022


glennts View Post


January 27th, 2022

Euro is heading towards parity with the Dollar...last time that occurred was 2002.

Price is currently testing the support (yellow dash) that took a year to develop. The 6E is in the 8th bar of an @ 12 bar ( 3 year) rotation. The colored circles mark groups of similar durations which, when averaged over the full span of the chat, yields an average of 12 bars.

The horizontal grid lines are at $1000 intervals.






Save the link to this post for the next time someone expresses the opinion that price movement is random and unpredictable.

"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #2608 (permalink)
 
AnvilRob's Avatar
 AnvilRob 
Smithfield, VA
Legendary Options Mando
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tasty Trade, TradingView
Broker: Tasty Trade
Trading: Futures: Everything
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 642 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 966



I figured I'd jump back into my old favorite thread!
6E is a lovely pivot point cluster of the quarterly and monthly pivots.
RSI is screaming overbought.
I have next month's monthly pivot up from today's calculation. I can see the price heading lower and tagging the level under the arrow.

Not trade advice


EDIT:
This would be my alternative view. Probably more likely to happen. Had to add as I dug in a little more.



Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #2609 (permalink)
mariafp
Annecy, France
 
Posts: 44 since Jan 2024
Thanks Given: 110
Thanks Received: 75

This thread has gone very quiet for a whole month. I am starting to think that "I will not trade 6E any more" must be a widespread New Year resolution?

Reply With Quote
  #2610 (permalink)
 
AnvilRob's Avatar
 AnvilRob 
Smithfield, VA
Legendary Options Mando
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tasty Trade, TradingView
Broker: Tasty Trade
Trading: Futures: Everything
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 642 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 966



AnvilRob View Post


I figured I'd jump back into my old favorite thread!
6E is a lovely pivot point cluster of the quarterly and monthly pivots.
RSI is screaming overbought.
I have next month's monthly pivot up from today's calculation. I can see the price heading lower and tagging the level under the arrow.

Not trade advice


EDIT:
This would be my alternative view. Probably more likely to happen. Had to add as I dug in a little more.





All I got correct on this was the top!

My trading plan: Anvils 2024 Trading Plan
Journal 2024 first trade: Link to first 2024 trade entry
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on January 27, 2024


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts