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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro


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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

  #2591 (permalink)
 
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 glennts 
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# 2585 " I do not expect it to break the upper zone."




In the overnight price pushed into the area that I expect to hold this multi-day advance. The area of support to the left begins at @ 1.1410 and traditionally would now be expected to act as resistance. That this overnight price is now the High of the Week and is occurring on a Wednesday is an anti-bearish comment, if I can coin that term... as opposed to a bullish argument. On the right hand side of the chart is the MP of these 5 days and you can see that the POC is up at 1.14425 giving price an excuse to test that level. If that occurs, breaking thru this area in the process, that would suggest the bulls are asserting themselves and the proof of their commitment will come when price then returns to this middle area to test for support.

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  #2592 (permalink)
 
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 glennts 
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An attempt is being made.



A 1440 Min Globex Session chart.

The last bar represents price action since the Globex Open yesterday afternoon. The Yellow circle highlights the fact that after a significant push lower, there was a strong reversal higher as price found support on the up trend line out of the 1/28 low and more significantly as I look at these things, on the Middle of the 15 Day S/R Band, which has now turned up.

Notice price is marginally above the Blue 5 Day POC, slightly bullish, and more significantly below the Green 15 Day POC. The Multi-Day rotations have turned in 4 day intervals and if that pattern were to hold, today would be early for the next Multi-Day Low... but this does not argue that there cannot be a 3 Day interval.

To add another interesting element, the High of today's candle is at the underside of the Weekly Pivot and the 5 Day Trend ( Blue) is pushing lower...resistance that so far has given a Lower High.

So, if the Bulls are going to get it done, today is a good day to show us what they got. As long as Yesterday's High holds, the Bearish argument stands. If price takes out that high then the High of the Week will now be a Thursday and because of the Weekly H/L pattern I use in my analysis, this is a Bullish configuration.

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  #2593 (permalink)
 
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 glennts 
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A 360 Min Globex Session chart.

The prior comments discussed the Multi-day rotation which is the key to the resolution of this current situation. On this chart the White ma rolled over after Yesterday's High, behavior consistent with the turn of the Multi-Day ( @ 5 Day ) rotation. The stochastic in the sub panel is confirming the turn but has not yet crossed it's own ma and that needs to be resolved. I see nothing here that argues strongly for a upside break out but the overnight reversal off the lows needs to be respected. Notice on this time frame, Yesterday's High was a double top built out of three 360 Min bars and the High of Today's Globex session so far is a lower high of the same interval. If this is going to roll over it would be reasonable for that candle to stand as the High of the Day.

It is premature to draw a triangle ( Yellow ) without further price action but it's an interesting possibility.



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  #2594 (permalink)
 
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Last and best chance for the Bulls to make their move if they have anything left.

The Black arrows point to the 5, 15 and 45 day ma's which are stacked in a Bullish configuration. That they are this close together ie: the 5 can't pull away from the 15 and both of those can't pull away from the 45 speaks to a squeeze during consolidation / distribution.

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  #2595 (permalink)
 
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 glennts 
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Because it is interesting.

On page 257 of this thread and post # 2567 the behavior of price returning to test a 4 period ma approximately every 4 - 5 months was introduced and in subsequent post that expectation was mentioned several times as a consideration in the analysis presented. The below chart of Weekly bars inside Monthly boxes shows that test taking place two weeks ago in the 5th month since the prior test.



The below Monthly chart extends back to 2008 and the Black line represents the 4 period ma just mentioned.
The bottom sub panel show price de-trended against that 4 period ma. If you took that line in the price chart and snapped it straight, this is what you would see. It is clear that this period ma has done a good job of representing the center of rotation during these long term swings. The light tan lines that parallel the Black Zero line are offset +/- 0.065 from the center line and with few exceptions have done a remarkable job at defining the limits of these rotations. Red lines on several of the de-trended highs mark divergences, the lessening of momentum as price continued to make new highs.




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  #2596 (permalink)
 
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 glennts 
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If you look at a Daily chart of the 6E extending back to November you will see that price has essentially not moved away from those levels. This has been 15 Weeks of trendless movement that I suspect is coming to a resolution.

This is a 360 Min chart, the S/R Band represents the trend and areas where buyers and sellers are likely to be found. the White boxes represent the Globex 24 Hr Session. Four of these 360 Min bars equals 24 Hrs. The numbers at the swing H/L's show the count from the prior H/L's. One bar in from the right was 4 bars from the prior swing High and two bars in was 4 bars from the prior swing low... the 24Hr Globex Cycle. The White circles mark the last attempt to push thru the resistance of the band middle and this effort failed with a strong rejection. The Yellow horizontal highlights the Double Bottom made with the low of seven days ago and this test of support in today's overnight trading resulted in a big bar up... the 4th bar from the prior 24 Hr High. The Yellow circle in the sub-panel shows the stochastic that represents the higher time frame cycle, the Multi-day rotation ( @ 5 day cycle) has turned up. This argues that price is on the upside of the MD rotation and when this is the case the 24 Hr Cycle will typically Right Translate with the High of the Day occurring in the later part of the 24 Hr Globex Session. this suggests the possibility of price taking out the overnight high. In support of this is the fact that for the last 5 Sessions, price has repeatedly banged away at the overhead resistance / supply.

Accumulation or distribution?

Price now has all the excuses it needs to take out the High of last week and a failure to do so will be telling. On the right is the Market Profile of the past 5 Sessions. The Blue line is the High Volume node (POC) of this period and being above price argues distribution. This general area marks the barrier the Bulls need to overcome. Notice the Overnight High was put in at the POC.

The wildcard for the currency and equity markets is Ukraine. Ambiguity is resolved by looking to higher time frames and the Monthly charts posted in the thread point to lower prices for the 6E.


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  #2597 (permalink)
 
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5 Min chart with 60 Min blocks and 60 Min S/R Band.

Earlier in the thread was a discussion on the concept of the Backbone of a move. What is a useful way to identify the area of support and resistance during the upside and downside of price rotation. On the Monthly charts the 4 period ma was used in this manner. In the prior post the question of whether or not the High of the Day had been made was raised. For The 24 Hr Globex Cycle various expressions of the 6 Hr time frame serves this purpose. On the chart anything that is Sienna in color is of the 6 Hr time frame ie: 6 Hr Donchian Channel, 6 Hr Ma and the 6 Hr Pivot. Notice the tests of the 6 Hr Pivot and recently the Middle of the 6 Hr Donchian Channel ( dashed line ). In the same area that is being tested for support is the Weekly Pivot and Today's Globex Pivot. The combined presence of these important levels represents and area of strong support and should they break then it must be assumed the 24Hr Cycle has turned and the overnight high will stand as the High of the Day.

To add more significance.. breaking the Daily Pivot is a comment that would suggest the High of the Week is in place...breaking the Weekly Pivot is a comment that would suggest the High of the Month is in place. This Week's and last Week's lows, the lows of the 7 day double Bottom, were put in on the Monthly Pivot. So the breaking of this area of 6 Hr support has inferences that move up through the higher time frames.

POCs made at the extremes of 5 min bars always grab my attention.

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  #2598 (permalink)
 
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From the prior post: >> ...should they break then it must be assumed the 24Hr Cycle has turned and the overnight high will stand as the High of the Day. <<

When support on the upside of the 24 Hr rotation breaks and becomes resistance on the backside of the 24 Hr rotation.



click to enlarge and then expand to actual size.

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  #2599 (permalink)
 
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Another 4 bar rotation... another candidate for the High of the Day. Overnight a higher 24 Hr Cycle Low was put in place with a 5 bar count which gave a nod to the Bull camp but this Higher Low then obliged them to follow up with a Higher 24 Hr Cycle High which they have so far failed to pull off. Making this Higher High would have turned the trend of the 24 Hr Cycle Up indicating price was now on the upside of a new Multi-Day rotation as you can see on the left hand side of the chart. Compare the behavior of the Stochastic back in 2/13 with the attempt to turn up on 2/20. This second attempt was squashed but the Sellers and you can see today the Stochastic wanting to roll over out of the next Multi-Day High. If this does what it looks like it is going to do then a test of the Monthly Pivot, the Blue dotted line at 1.12935 is the likely next stop, but not necessarily the end of the longer term move lower. Earlier in the thread was discussed the likely hood the 6E was in a Multi-Year decline. When on the backside of a Multi-Year Cycle there are forces pushing price lower for which a Monthly Pivot is only a speed bump.

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A definite maybe.

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