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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro


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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

  #2461 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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The 6E is at an interesting inflexion point today. This chart is 720 Min bars, the black dotted horizontals are the POC for each 12 Hr period, the hashes on each bar are its Pivot. Price has been giving us a 5 - 6 rotation on the swings ( @12 bars) and is in the period where a rotation down would occur IF the pattern were to continue. The white box captures a POC cluster and the MP on the right ( green ) represents the volume distribution for the last 15 days. In the midst of the cluster is the Green POC of the prior 3 weeks. Entering this high volume area in this time period gives price an excuse to turn lower and test prior support levels but as you can see, price is attempting to push above this area. If this follows thru then the black box at the upper band is the likely target.

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  #2462 (permalink)
 tradepips 
Sacramento, CA USA
 
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glennts View Post


The 6E is at an interesting inflexion point today. This chart is 720 Min bars, the black dotted horizontals are the POC for each 12 Hr period, the hashes on each bar are its Pivot. Price has been giving us a 5 - 6 rotation on the swings ( @12 bars) and is in the period where a rotation down would occur IF the pattern were to continue. The white box captures a POC cluster and the MP on the right ( green ) represents the volume distribution for the last 15 days. In the midst of the cluster is the Green POC of the prior 3 weeks. Entering this high volume area in this time period gives price an excuse to turn lower and test prior support levels but as you can see, price is attempting to push above this area. If this follows thru then the black box at the upper band is the likely target.



The way you are using the volume profile inside the candles makes the intra-candle support and resistance levels stand out.

Thank you for sharing your chart!

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  #2463 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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A 6 Hr bar 6E chart. The white boxes are a 24 Hr Globex time block, the hash associated with each block is the 24 Hr Globex Pivot. Three bars in from the right edge you can see today's Low was put in 3 ticks below this Pivot. The white ma represents a custom 24 Hr ma and this ma will provide support for price during this up swing. The blue circle shows the area in which the Weekly Pivot, the 5 Day (custom) ma, and the Middle of the 5 Day Donchian Channel are found, and in the way I consider support and resistance this grouping of 5 Day, or Multi-Day ( MD ) represents a significant threshold. Notice that after price pushed thru this area Yesterday, it consolidated in today's overnight and then retraced lower to test support which it found with the 4:40 Low on the 24 Hr Pivot, and 24 Hr ma. This is significant because in a MD upswing, price will enjoy 24 Hr support until the High of the Swing is found. The second bar in closed at 11:30. The current bar is standing on Yesterday's Close... again a demonstration of 24 Hr support in this MD Upswing. You can see the High of this current bar and the POC of this 6 Hr bar's MP are at the Green dotted line.... the 15 Day, Multi-Week ( MW )ma. This is an expression of one of the truisms of Price Action. When a lower time frame area of support or resistance is broken, price will seek to test the next higher time frame area of support or resistance.

As this is taking on the look of a MW Upswing instead of a MD retracement in an ongoing decline, it is reasonable to expect the attempt to put in a more significant low will continue for a few more days. There will likely be a test of support which could bring price back down to the MD area ( blue circle ) before the next attempt to push higher. Usually out of a Low of this magnitude, the first up swing will Right Translate as opposed to the Left-Translation that we've be given during this decline. For this reason I expect this initial push to have more juice left before we see a test of support.

If you do any Elliot Wave Analysis you are familiar with ABC retracements. This swing higher can be seen to have a 5 Wave structure which suggests it is at a minimum an A Wave. The expected retracement would give a B Wave and after that it gets interesting.

If this is useful then please comment. Without comments I have no way of judging if this useful.

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  #2464 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
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glennts View Post
If this is useful then please comment. Without comments I have no way of judging if this useful.

I always appreciate and like your charts. I understand how individualized charting is, so I know I may not use them exactly, but I enjoy the ideas.

I'm not trading the same instruments, but I do like to follow along and maybe pick up an idea or two.

I think it's useful.

Bob.

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-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #2465 (permalink)
 tradepips 
Sacramento, CA USA
 
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glennts View Post
A 6 Hr bar 6E chart. The white boxes are a 24 Hr Globex time block, the hash associated with each block is the 24 Hr Globex Pivot. Three bars in from the right edge you can see today's Low was put in 3 ticks below this Pivot. The white ma represents a custom 24 Hr ma and this ma will provide support for price during this up swing. The blue circle shows the area in which the Weekly Pivot, the 5 Day (custom) ma, and the Middle of the 5 Day Donchian Channel are found, and in the way I consider support and resistance this grouping of 5 Day, or Multi-Day ( MD ) represents a significant threshold. Notice that after price pushed thru this area Yesterday, it consolidated in today's overnight and then retraced lower to test support which it found with the 4:40 Low on the 24 Hr Pivot, and 24 Hr ma. This is significant because in a MD upswing, price will enjoy 24 Hr support until the High of the Swing is found. The second bar in closed at 11:30. The current bar is standing on Yesterday's Close... again a demonstration of 24 Hr support in this MD Upswing. You can see the High of this current bar and the POC of this 6 Hr bar's MP are at the Green dotted line.... the 15 Day, Multi-Week ( MW )ma. This is an expression of one of the truisms of Price Action. When a lower time frame area of support or resistance is broken, price will seek to test the next higher time frame area of support or resistance.

As this is taking on the look of a MW Upswing instead of a MD retracement in an ongoing decline, it is reasonable to expect the attempt to put in a more significant low will continue for a few more days. There will likely be a test of support which could bring price back down to the MD area ( blue circle ) before the next attempt to push higher. Usually out of a Low of this magnitude, the first up swing will Right Translate as opposed to the Left-Translation that we've be given during this decline. For this reason I expect this initial push to have more juice left before we see a test of support.

If you do any Elliot Wave Analysis you are familiar with ABC retracements. This swing higher can be seen to have a 5 Wave structure which suggests it is at a minimum an A Wave. The expected retracement would give a B Wave and after that it gets interesting.

If this is useful then please comment. Without comments I have no way of judging if this useful.

I always find that your charts are great for showing key areas of interest. Your second post with a more in-depth explanation of what you are seeing in the chart made the chart easier to understand. For example, you shared that you counted 5 waves up which would correlate with a possible A Wave structure. It's not easy to see those 5 waves on the 6 hr chart, but after looking for them, I found them.

I appreciate that you also gave your insights as to possible future price action the 6E may make, along with the explanations of what you relied on to make your analysis.

I find your charts helpful. Thank you.

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  #2466 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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6E 360 Min... Why choose a 360 Min time period... why not? If you think in terms of the (@) 24 Hr Globex Session and you consider the various exchanges that Open/Close as the Session works its way around the globe then there are four exchanges with significant enough activity to influence price movement. Do these exchanges Open/Close at these regular 6 hr intervals... no they don't but I'm not going to obsess over that kind of chart precision when at the end of the day it doesn't matter. What 360 Min bars do give me is an easy way to identify highs and lows of the average 24 Hr rotation. On this chart white arrows mark these bars. You will notice the second bar in has been marked as a possible 24 Hr High... 4 bars from the prior 24 Hr High. When you start your day this crude technique can give you a way to orient yourself to the trends that will define the day's bias.

Yesterday's chart discussed the role of the white 24 Hr ma as providing support during this up move and as you can see that support has failed and important to note, the white ma has rolled over and is now sideways. Corrections occur with a combination of time and price. As long as the 24 Hr ma ( 24 Hr trend ) is flat then price will rotate around that level but if it continues to roll over then we will get the test lower to the area of MD support discussed yesterday. If you look closely you will see this white 24 Hr ma aligning with the dotted green MW ma, this is the level under contention. Dashed black lines have been added to point out the possibility of a triangle forming... a correction in time but not in price.

Things to notice:

Today's High so far is Yesterday's Close... this is an expression of 24 Hr Resistance.

Price is below the 24 Hr Globex Pivot... 24 Hr Resistance.

The MD POC on the right hand MP and risen from Yesterday's chart and the body lows of the current two 360 Min bars (Session Bars) are sitting on this POC.

Finally the Stochastic which represents the Multi-Day Up and Down swings has broken and is in a corrective phase.

If this is useful then please post a comment.

If you have questions I'll answer them next time around.

Good luck, be careful.

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  #2467 (permalink)
 
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 brettji 
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glennts View Post


6E 360 Min... Why choose a 360 Min time period... why not? If you think in terms of the (@) 24 Hr Globex Session and you consider the various exchanges that Open/Close as the Session works its way around the globe then there are four exchanges with significant enough activity to influence price movement. Do these exchanges Open/Close at these regular 6 hr intervals... no they don't but I'm not going to obsess over that kind of chart precision when at the end of the day it doesn't matter. What 360 Min bars do give me is an easy way to identify highs and lows of the average 24 Hr rotation. On this chart white arrows mark these bars. You will notice the second bar in has been marked as a possible 24 Hr High... 4 bars from the prior 24 Hr High. When you start your day this crude technique can give you a way to orient yourself to the trends that will define the days bias.

Yesterday's chart discussed the role of the white 24 Hr ma as providing support during this up move and as you can see that support has failed and important to note, the white ma has rolled over and is now sideways. Corrections occur with a combination of time and price. As long as the 24 Hr ma ( 24 Hr trend ) is flat then price will rotate around that level but if it continues to roll over then we will get the test lower to the area of MD support discussed yesterday. If you look closely you will see this white 24 Hr ma aligning with the dotted green MW ma, this is the level under contention. Dashed black lines have been added to point out the possibility of a triangle forming... a correction in time but not in price.

Things to notice:

Today's High so far is Yesterday's Close... this is an expression of 24 Hr Resistance.

Price is below the 24 Hr Globex Pivot... 24 Hr Resistance.

The MD POC on the right hand MP and risen from Yesterday's chart and the body lows of the current two 360 Min bars (Session Bars) are sitting on this POC.

Finally the Stochastic which represents the Multi-Day Up and Down swings has broken and is in a corrective phase.

If this is useful then please post a comment.

If you have questions I'll answer them next time around.

Good luck, be careful.

It's funny, that I was just thinking about time frames yesterday, 360 being one of them.
Then waking up, looking the latest feeds, seeing a 6e post (an interest of mine)show up and then seeing your charts using 360....

If I believed in coincidence.

Thanks for posting.

B

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  #2468 (permalink)
 
glennts's Avatar
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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Occasionally Price will do what you expect it to but it won't do it in the way you expect it to.

If you compare this chart with today's earlier chart you will see that the white arrows used to mark the 24 Hr rotations have been adjusted to reflect the current price action. The Low put in at 7:40 Central was 26 Hrs from the Prior 24 Hr rotation Low.... close enough. Because of this shift this marker has been removed: "You will notice the second bar in has been marked as a possible 24 Hr High."

And then: "... if it continues to roll over then we will get the test lower to the area of MD support discussed yesterday."

The Low put in at 7:40 found support in the upper range of the white boxed used to indicate where MD support would be found. This 360 Min bar was an 18 bar count from the prior MD Low... the historical average of these rotations is 20 bars.

You will also notice the Stochastic which represents the swings of the MD rotation is thinking about turning back up. This is another suggestion that the correction of this initial swing up may be complete, however until price takes out the swing high put in Yesterday then there is still the possibility of more consolidation before a next leg up. At 12:10 Central price is currently 24 60 Min bars from the prior 24 Hr Rotation High and has an excuse to test lower looking for support.

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  #2469 (permalink)
 
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 glennts 
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Old school charting.

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 TheTradeSlinger 
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glennts View Post
Old school charting.




Is that a joke?

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