PandaWarrior 

A nice day to day, I was more in tune with the market, far more patient, both with the set up and with waiting for the trade to develop. Mentally I was short all morning, but my higher time frames said long. I did trade short a couple of times but got on board with the long when the 1 min said the shorts were over. I also took a trade I've never tried before. A counter trend with no moving average to confirm. It was the triangle breakdown after the $1 spike up this morning. I did it with only 1 lot and for only ten ticks as I have no idea how to gauge possible targets for a trade like that. Turns out it was a great trade but I got mine on the first impulse out of the triangle. Overall a net of 43 ticks gained today. First trade was a loser. Second trade was a BE+1, third trade was for 33 ticks and last trade was ten ticks. [IMG]http://content.screencast.com/users/aztrader9/folders/Jing/media/1972103d-8311-43a3-b734-3b5c2fef9ac0/2012-01-12_0857.png[/IMG]

Nice job! I know in the past on ninja, you were using a 21 ema.It looks like now , however, youre mas are much longer.

PandaWarrior 

A nice day to day, I was more in tune with the market, far more patient, both with the set up and with waiting for the trade to develop. Mentally I was short all morning, but my higher time frames said long. I did trade short a couple of times but got on board with the long when the 1 min said the shorts were over. ...

listen to market instead of yourself, awesome!

bobarian 

Nice job! I know in the past on ninja, you were using a 21 ema.It looks like now , however, youre mas are much longer.

Not a bad idea in a rangy-esque market?

PandaWarrior 

A nice day to day, I was more in tune with the market, far more patient, both with the set up and with waiting for the trade to develop. Mentally I was short all morning, but my higher time frames said long. I did trade short a couple of times but got on board with the long when the 1 min said the shorts were over. I also took a trade I've never tried before. A counter trend with no moving average to confirm. It was the triangle breakdown after the $1 spike up this morning. I did it with only 1 lot and for only ten ticks as I have no idea how to gauge possible targets for a trade like that. Turns out it was a great trade but I got mine on the first impulse out of the triangle. Overall a net of 43 ticks gained today. First trade was a loser. Second trade was a BE+1, third trade was for 33 ticks and last trade was ten ticks.

well it turns out there is a reason I don't post in threads where the math guys hang out...I cant even add the number of ticks properly..... a -10+BE+33+10 does not add up to 43. It adds up to 33 which matches my PnL.....

sheesh.

bobarian 

Nice job! I know in the past on ninja, you were using a 21 ema.It looks like now , however, youre mas are much longer.

Those MA's are:

Red: 1 Min 89 SSMA
Green: 5M 89 SSMA
Purple: 15 89 SSMA

Over the month of December when I wasn't trading, I looked at lot of historical charts with the 21 and the 89 on them. The 21 seemed to be pretty decent at following a trend and catching smaller pull backs on the 1M chart. However, as you know, there is a lot of noise on the 1M chart. Over the course of the month, I noticed that the slower MA tended to catch the deeper pull backs better (duh) and that the moves from there were often times much larger than from the 21. So I made a decision to trade both the 21 and the 89.

After a couple of days of that, I decided to look at the price action with just the 89.

Since I trade only around the MA, this produced fewer trade opportunities thereby helping to reduce over trading, it reduced my decision fatigue by removing the number of times I have to make a decision and it opened up the possibility of targets larger than 15 ticks. And for some reason, it seems like my stops are smaller....but that could be my imagination as I have NOT tested that theory.

In theory anyway, if you can get all the stars lined up, a nice long run will ensue......which appears to have happened twice today.

Anyway, its also forcing me to read price action away from the MA for either a continuation trade or perhaps a counter trend trade like I did today. If I can get good at those two trades, I might have something going on.

Short question, long answer.

PandaWarrior 

Those MA's are: Red: 1 Min 89 SSMA Green: 5M 89 SSMA Purple: 15 89 SSMA Over the month of December when I wasn't trading, I looked at lot of historical charts with the 21 and the 89 on them. The 21 seemed to be pretty decent at following a trend and catching smaller pull backs on the 1M chart. However, as you know, there is a lot of noise on the 1M chart. Over the course of the month, I noticed that the slower MA tended to catch the deeper pull backs better (duh) and that the moves from there were often times much larger than from the 21. So I made a decision to trade both the 21 and the 89. After a couple of days of that, I decided to look at the price action with just the 89. Since I trade only around the MA, this produced fewer trade opportunities thereby helping to reduce over trading, it reduced my decision fatigue by removing the number of times I have to make a decision and it opened up the possibility of targets larger than 15 ticks. And for some reason, it seems like my stops are smaller....but that could be my imagination as I have NOT tested that theory. In theory anyway, if you can get all the stars lined up, a nice long run will ensue......which appears to have happened twice today. Anyway, its also forcing me to read price action away from the MA for either a continuation trade or perhaps a counter trend trade like I did today. If I can get good at those two trades, I might have something going on. Short question, long answer.

Whenever I am looking at a 'system' or 'tweaks' I always look for 'death days' and I am curious if you have identified any days that will really hurt? What does that look like, etc...

My favorite MA's that I have identified (depends on the instrument) are the 21/34/89... Funny how after being introduced to those that people still find them interesting.

bluemele 

Whenever I am looking at a 'system' or 'tweaks' I always look for 'death days' and I am curious if you have identified any days that will really hurt? What does that look like, etc... My favorite MA's that I have identified (depends on the instrument) are the 21/34/89... Funny how after being introduced to those that people still find them interesting.

Any day can be a death day. But I assume you mean taking trades based on what I think should happen around the MA and the answer is it depends. Do you trade every bar? Do you wait from some sort of price action you recognize? Do you stop trading if you have 2-3 losers in a row which more than likely is trying to tell you something?

I to like those three MA's. However, there is no magic in them, just context for price action.

Anything works within reason or within context. Its 100% the trader that determines the success/failure of the chosen trading method.

PandaWarrior 

Overall a net of 43 ticks gained today.

OK so the number was 33...Still a keeper.

Great psot ...Just the tone of your post exudes confidence and to read it is encouraging, for all of us developing traders.

Amazing what a difference a day makes...

PandaWarrior 

Any day can be a death day. But I assume you mean taking trades based on what I think should happen around the MA and the answer is it depends. Do you trade every bar? Do you wait from some sort of price action you recognize? Do you stop trading if you have 2-3 losers in a row which more than likely is trying to tell you something? I to like those three MA's. However, there is no magic in them, just context for price action. Anything works within reason or within context. Its 100% the trader that determines the success/failure of the chosen trading method.

What I mean is a visual backtest of how often between the time you trade will it be a really bad market condition for the method. Just something I do whenever I change something is look at market conditions of Christmas Past to see what could happen etc.. That is all I meant...