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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Out again at minus 17 tick this time. Down 24 total. Going to step aside. One of the hard thngs about going for larger swings, I have been up 40 and 20 ticks on two trades, and still finished down....
This is not a trade this journal is about, but I was a scalper for a long time and I just scalped a 24 tick long to get back to even, less commissions. That type of trade is way too fast to post with images, etc, but the entry point was similar as if I was going for a swing. What I targeted was to break the previous high at 80.73, and only went for breakeven with a 24 tick profit, 18 tick stop.
There is a lot of support for crude in this 79.50-80.00 area, and also a lot of support for the S&P in the 1120-1125 area, something I will now be watching for a potential long swing.
Crude has established a channel, and that means stops are also building on both sides of that channel. And it also means we should see a lot of channel traders hitting the tops and bottoms of it, and therefore the channel persists. Watch the top and bottom of this 100 +/- tick range for clues.
A word of advice; channel trading, in my experience, is more advanced. I do not rate that type of setup as high as a swing, and typically do not take them.
Look at the chop on the 9 range. That type of market is tough to win at. I had days in the past where I could blow several days profit trying to force the market to give me some today. I have not had a losing day in over 5 weeks, and am sitting at breakeven today, not feeling that good about pressing my luck without seeing something significant. One possible trade still left for the day is the 2pm rush, but even that is hard to call in this market. The best setup, if I take it, will be for crude to push down into the bottom, possiblly blow day stops, find heavy volume, and then reverse up. That would be a good place to target a short covering rally. But all of that is just talk until the market starts to play it out. I'm out for awhile.
I have not had a losing day in over 5 weeks, and am sitting at