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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
We were watching the same thing. I took that trade as the DB was forming. I entered at about 94.85 and had my stop below the low. I was anticipating the EIA report to drive price higher which it did. The trade went over 60 tics in my favor and pulled back. I had moved my stop up and got stopped with about 30 tics. 5 minutes later it rockets higher.
This set up just as you had described, but it was a difficult trade to take with CL down about $2. There is a saying in Market Profile that "the difficult trades to take are the best ones to take", or something to that affect.
Any suggestions on how to have confidence in taking this kind of trade and letting it do its thing? If I'd of given the trade just a few more ticks of room I would have been in it for the bigger move.
David
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
The chart above is a repost from last night. Sometimes support and resistance areas are very well defined, and when they are provide one of the best opportunities for solid trades.
The resistance last night was determined to be between 97.10 and 97.70. The overnight high was 97.32. Nearly in the middle.
The support posted last night was 94.00 - 94.60. Today's low was 94.54, 6 ticks below the zone.
I realize that for futures traders, 60 ticks can seem like a very large range. But, between the high and the low was a clear 270+ ticks, with no obvious support or resistance between. And the market moved accordingly.
The unfortunate part for me today was I was not available to take the trade after the EIA report, but it doesn't really matter. The next opportunity is already forming.
I used to watch one of my teachers create these zones and be amazed when I saw the market turn around them time after time. But now I am often surprised if it doesn't. In my mind, there is no indicator that can beat learning how to read support and resistance zones.
I have to leave town again for awhile. Good trading and stay safe!
With the market falling off a cliff, stepping in front of it is not the best option. But, waiting for it to reach a well-defined zone, seeing if the zone has any merit, watching for confirmation... trade signals don't get much better than that. When you find the right area, be patient. The market will tell you, by heavy volume coming in, by reversing direction.
There are two things constant about trading;
1) Markets are going to change direction.
2) When they do, it is because of support or resistance.
Expecting a market to turn is the best way to feel good about trying to pick tops and bottoms.
On the topic of how long to hold them, you could do the same thing on the other end. In a long, where is resistance? I exitted my one trade of the day this morning at the 786 level, because I was expecting crude to retest the support. I had that idea, either the 618 or the 786 exit, before I got in.
The 2nd long today, which I missed due to other obligations, once crude broke the prior pivot high it was on a mission. Set your target just above the nxt major pivot , lock in your stop, and take deep breaths
I look for support and resistance starting with the "significant" levels, which really means the most obvious levels. There are other things to consider, but the concept starts like the chart above. Then I add, and add, and add lines of greater detail, smaller timeframes, or sometimes larger timeframes. Then I subtract everything that seems like noise.
The result is a simple looking highlighted box on one more more of my charts. Easy to see, easy to decide when to make a decision. I can relax until my time comes.
And, regardless of any of that, I believe whether you can decipher effective S/R levels or not, believing in waiting for your area of expertise to occur is very empowering. To win at trading, you must be confident. To have confidence, you must believe in yourself. And to do that, with any conviction, you have to have proven it to yourself. Deep down, you know. Practice, simulate, focus, relax.
After just taking a 2 handle profit on a long on ES, with my target being 10, and then witnessing one of the easiest 10 point moves of my life without re-entering, I would like to chime in here.
The feeling is utter frustration--almost more so than getting stopped out and being dead wrong. To make it worse, it didn't even really pull back much. A stop trailed logically would have been just fine.
My plan for next time will be this: if the target is really higher, as it was for me, then be determined to ONLY move the stop at each stage of the move. When the stop is moved, I will leave it there. I will then say to myself, when it gets to XYZ level, then I will move it to ABC level. That's the only way I see to do it -- basically, to have a plan that is adapting as the trade progresses based on what we see, but still sticking to that plan and not just closing the trade for profit.
I got out for +8 ticks, when my target was +42 ... no reason for this except fear of giving back what's already there. I'm AIAO right now, as scaling out has proved mathematically inferior for my results personally, but even if I had scaled out I have no doubt I would have taken all off before my target, making the initial risk incurred too great for scaling, for the same psychological reasons I closed this trade too early.
