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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
If proper stop size is even close to causing you to re-think positions, then why not consider trading those on ETF's using a small share size, to granually control your risk?
You could also got the Spot Gold route via forex instead of futures, but will probably pay a higher penalty in spreads to do so vs just funding a 25k equities account and trading ETF's on a smaller scale (25k to avoid PDT).
I closed my equities account a couple years ago. I could re-open, but that is putting too much emphasis on this one trade. I may go to YG, or even MGC, but really what is going on is a shift of beliefs. If I was only looking to make money, I would trade CL forever.
I never had any desire to take another gold trade. Gold was close, but different from crude, and I picked crude based on volume one day, and have never looked back until I saw the Ichimoku webinar recently. Then, while scrolling through various markets to see what it that set of indicators did, I saw an incredible confluence of factors that suggested GC was setting up for a very high-rated opportunity. You only get trades like that a few times a year. And it found my weak spot; the desire to ride a wave end-to-end on a daily or weekly chart.
The study of major waves consumes 90% of my non-trading hours on a screen. The problem is, while I have become very proficient at reading a chart, riding end-to-end is not the trading method that I have really mastered. I know how to use wave analyisis to benefit from smaller moves inside of a larger move, not take the whole enchilada. So a part of me is fighting for what I aspire to be while the other part fights to stay with what I know I am.
I have wrestled with it ever since, and have not even opened a CL chart for about a week now. Weeks ago I shifted this thread to be more of a personal journal than an informative thread, and so what you are seeing is the conversation that runs in my head as I work through my own personal drama. It may be distracting from the ongoing chart analysis that I post, but it is helping me.
I have passed on at least half a dozen very good trade setups for myself recently, as that is what my current thought process believes are good trades, but I am trying to allow my thought process to get re-arranged somewhat. I trade first and foremost to become a better person, second to not lose money, and third to make money. The reason I have shut down on all trades but one right now is I can only safely process so much information at a time, and right now I am trying to be very aware and cautious that possibly my obsession is because I am allowing priority #3 to move up.
I'll work my way out of this. Thanks for trying to help.
Gold has found a temporary resting place at the lower edge of the LSP, but the case for this being a wave 5 continues to build. The chart below shows an impressive degree of confluence in the area of the minimum expected target for a wave five completion. Given the information shown on today's chart, there are 6 major fibs forming a tight target zone between 1834.40 and 1847.80. That may seem like a wide range, but in relation to this wave size, if gold makes a move of roughly $170.00 per ounce (1670-1840), a $13.00 target range is only about 8% of the expected move.
Wave 1 had a duration of 15 trading days. Wave 3 lasted 13 trading days. If the time pattern remains similar, this move could have a lot of momentum. Easy does it on any short trades until gold shows any significant signs of changing it's path.
I did actualy look at spot gold trading for a friend who is a bulk gold dealer. There was a platform he emailed me called "Typhoon" I played with for a few days. The download came from BestDirect. Ran the sim up around 10% then grew tired of it. Very limited functions compared to NT or TS. I have considered re-opening an equities account this year to have low leverage options. I simmed TOS a few months back but I am so familiar with NT now most others seem to be lacking. I don't know what brokers offer NT for equities, maybe IB. I plan to look into it though.
I used IB for trading stocks and options and was very happy with them. They are a solid broker. If they had better commissions on Forex I would still be with them. It was simple to hook up their data feed to NT as well. Somebody can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe IB does not have true tick data in their data feed. Depending on your trading style that may not matter.
I guess I don't 'get it'? I have been reading your thread, but don't quite understand why you are 'switching' around? No need to reply if you do not wish to explain.
I have developed several trading skills, but do not feel I use them in the best combination to realize the greatest efficiency.
I've been going to the gym a lot lately. Besides just getting into better shape, I am seeing some analogies with my trading. If I wanted to just tone my muscles, I could do that with less effort than if I wanted to gain some real size. Gaining size requires that I push myself harder and endure some pain, and that pain would be self-inflicted and expected. I have no goal to be a bodybuilder, and so my workouts are nothing like the guys who go there for that. And it is ok for me not to compare my workouts with theirs. Not important to me. I just want to be in better shape. But, I am intensely serious about my path as a trader, and so the discomfort I put myself through may seem unecessary, but it makes sense to me.
I feel that for me to move forward from where I am today I need to break some current habits or ways of thinking. That can be uncomfortable whether the habits are good or bad. It's only recently I have been outwardly expressing these inner conflicts or debates, but this process has been going on in me for years.
To what end? To make more money? To improve your quality of life (perhaps by being at the screen less)? Something else?
If it's to improve quality of life and free up time, then I get it. If it's to increase the bottom line, you could just increase size. But I expect it's more than that.
I don't mean to step on Gary's thread, but I used to believe in the argument of "just increase size", but it isn't quite that simple when you are a human being.
I still agree, increasing size is the way to go, but it is a very, very gradual process so as to not upset the balance.
I've spoken with traders who don't want to look at threads or forums because they don't want new ideas. They don't want to risk upsetting the delicate balance they have with the market
I think increasing size poses the same risk. So while I used to say, why not just "add a zero" to the end of whatever you are trading (size), it just isn't as simple as that in the real world.
All that said, I do caution against changing too much when you have a winning system working for you. Best to make tiny incremental changes and let them run their course for a few weeks so you can really asses their strength or weakness before making decisions based on them.
