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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
The setup was flawless. My entry, however, was not. I missed this trade by 2 ticks... Happens sometimes. The good news is I will get another chance. Had I entered right on the 21 DC the trade has roughly 70 ticks so far.
Even with the missed trade, it's worth looking at the wave structure that caused me to be interested in this area as a possible turning point for a short trade.
In addition to being just outside the stops that blew, and the higher timeframe Head & Shoulders RSP still intact, there was a very good 100% APP of wave A after a major prior move down.
Yeah, that was my trade for the day, and I missed it. It still has the potential to run if we are in fact going to complete the H&S, but when I don't stick to my rules I typically get nailed
Today's record 1 missed trade, no dollars either way. If crude is going to find support, it should be in the 93.70 - 94.00 area, for a short covering race for the exit doors. But I may pass.
Kudos, that was/is/will be the single most potent concept in trading of controlling risk (of not losing money). It was eye opening for me too, the lesser I traded the more profitable I got (just as you have resonated). It's a lost concept (but only because of 80/20 rule). Human nature being what it is - it is only right that only 20% ever get that and probaly only 20% of that 20 survive long enough and are lucky enough to put it all together to make it.
And once you think you make it, you are in danger of losing it all becuase the market never sits still and wants you to re-learn the lesson over and over again. It is the dance of death, and what a beautiful dance it is. For the rewards are truly equal to the danger.
Stop was moved up again, 93.59. This one was not looking right, and I almost closed it for a 10 tick +/- profit, but I tightened my stop instead. It turned out to be a losing trade, but only for 18 ticks. It can be frustrating to have a target of 70+, have your trade reach 40+, then turn on you. But, I'll take that over being afraid to leave my profit a reasonable distance away for the trade and the risk. My target was just below the prior high pivots, which will often be run when the market was bearish all day and then headed for the afternoon close, as shorts are trying to lock in and/or exit. But, tomorrow will be another opportunity, and 50, 60, 70 tick moves happen every day
There's a story, a little off topic, but it applies. I am a vegetarian, have been for over 20 years. I also studied eastern religions in the past, and in that pursuit came across a tale of a student who wanted to study with a certain "master".
The master refused the student, saying that he only accepted students who were vegetarians. "But I AM a vegetarian" proclaimed the student. The master still said, "No, you are not."
The student begged and persisted, and finally the master told him, "Go away, and eat nothing but meat for the next thirty days. If you can do that, I will accept you as my student."
The would-be student was confused, and asked, "but master, I can't do that..." But the master's terms were not negotiable, and so the student set off to start his 30 day diet of NOTHING BUT meat.
Several weeks later the student returned to the master, and broke down in tears at the master's feet.
"Master, I tried so hard to do what you told me. I have had nothing but meat for over 3 weeks. Not a piece of bread, not a single vegetable, just meat, meat, and more meat. But, I am so sick of it I now that even the mention of it makes me sick. I am so sorry master to have failed you, but I cannot eat one more bite ever in my life."
The master smiled and said, "Ah, now you are a vegetarian!"
For me, I was a "trader" long before I should have been. I was going to make millions, and have had incredibly profitable days... But even though I convinced myself that I had studied hard, knew the rules of trading, researched probable strategies, backtested my butt off... I was not a trader. I was a fool, I was cocky, I was impatient, I was naive.
Blow up a few accounts. Risk everything and loose it. Do it again. And again and again. Until you can't stand the thought of ever having it happen. That was my path. And then I became a trader.
We all already know the odds are against us. When you play with leverage, make sure you do it on your terms. Trading should not be looked at that much differently from being an insurance underwriter; Know your market, know your odds, take only the risks that make sense.
