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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Closed 4th at +60. may re-enter, but this was a countertrend trade and my first live day in a month, so may just watch again. End result (2) at +20, (1) at +50, (1) at +60.
Yes, you could see the short posistions had built up overnight along the lower edge of resistance. Then the stops blew, then volume looked like it had exhausted on the 1 minute, then price had a low volume test, but it did not seem to have any more sgnificant participation.
Despite the fact that I took a single entry today and it was short, the better odds continue to favor long positions. This morning's trade was a matter of timing and some telltale conditions. For some reason, countertrend trades seem to stand out better some times.
However, as was the belief last week, and the focus of my studies since, long continues to be the path of least resistance for crude. If price is headed higher, the first line of support should be around the yellow zone.
The next major resistance on a higher timeframe is quite a ways away still, and crude broke through the prior zone towards the end of the day as shorts began to realize they were trapped.
I wanted to take a long trade on a very well defined volume stop this afternoon, but was in the middle of other work and could not give it the attention I wanted to. But I could not help but notice the intensity of the bar below on my monitoring screen, and would have taken this long 10 out of 10 times if I was available to trade.
As traders, we seem obsessed with being right more than being wrong. High probability trading is a goal, and it should be.
But, never underestimate the power of letting winners run and cutting losses short. The attached file shows a strategy that produced a winning trade only 20% of the time, but would have yielded a 70%+ annual return, trading one contract, one market, on a $10,000 account.
Gary, what did you see that told you short positions were building up?
Also, in your screen shot of the trade results with only 20% winners, what is the strategy? If its to hold winners and get the big swings I would think that would be a with trend method at S/R and the % would be higher, but not the case. Interesting results.
