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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
closed +50. I don't like holding through the light volume. I may switch to QM overnight, but want to wait until after 6pm.
Net 1 trade +50
Did not leave for Boaston asfterall. I may fly out this coming weekend, but could be in Orlando all week
It seems everyone is scared to short CL ight now, and possibly for good reason, but when I was reading plans are being made to offset any supplu disruption, and teh overnight fall that followed, then the volume at the 618, I was short biased the rest of the day, and still am.
I don't know if this is the "right" place to short, becasue crude has not even broken the 120 minute trendline, and it was on a real run for several days. I just said to myself that I was going to pay close attention to the news on this one, and Sunsday afternoon was the first I heard about a production increase to offset the potential disruption, The this morning there was talk of possibly opening the strategic supply...
Whether it falls from here or not, that was enough to get profit taking to startm and then the massive sell volume at the 618 of the fall was the real trigger for me. I believe that was my first post today.
I waited longer than normal to enter, and was not really that surprised at the test after I got in. Crude has had such incredible momentum lately.
But, IF there seems to be a permanent fix to the Iran potential problem, I would not be shocked to see crude back below $100.
This post from earlier shows the only real SR levels I wanted to acknowledge right now. Crude was in the middle of nowhere, so I had to wait for the volume to show where new resistance set up camp.
Gary - great to see how you are using fundamentals in your trading. I resisted using fundamentals in my trading for a long time and am now biting the bullet and trying to understand how they best fit in with my overall market understanding. I want to use them to confirm or support what I'm seeing on the chart - your observation that the weekend developments were the first news-related reason to stop buying was consistent with the strategy to short the developing resistance at 109.25 or so. Nice job on this. I'm still learning a lot from your thread.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
OK. I just made it back to my computer and see that crude did actually make it to my target of 107.30 (and only a few cents past it) before the electronic close. I am smiling, but also feel a little anger. Maybe not anger, I'll see if a better word pops up as I go.
But, the core of things;
1) I went short after reading about the potential supply increase last night, and then patiently waiting for sellers to show themselves, which they did just as priced passed though the 618 retracement.
2) I then waited for my preferred 6-range setup at the intermediate donchian. More patience.
3) I held even as the market gave an initial 25-30 cents, only to retrace and put me into 15-20 cents of heat, and then go back down into the 50-60 cent profit range. Still great patience, and feeling good about my first relaxed day in weeks.
4) I closed the trade around the pit close, thinking I would get back in at half-size after 6pm.
5) The frustration is, after I closed, the market did exactly what I had expected it to do going into the 2:30pm close. I was really surprised it did not break down while I was in it, and had completely anticipated the move. And still missed it...
6) And, the fact that my target was 107.30 and the market bottomed at 107.27 feels more like salt in the wound than great S/R analysis.
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!
I was actually saying out loud, to myself, while the market was hitting the pit close, "Come on, just get past this support and you're home free..."
So now, I was ready to re-enter short but am dealing with some negative emotion, and so cannot honestly say I am ready to trade. Maybe it is anger, maybe it is frustration.
I know it happens, it is ok, it was not a loss, etc. My initial response was I laughed out loud, here in my office alone. Then I said something I would not repeat here on nexusfi.com (formerly BMT).
Anyway, resistance should be in the 108.20-108.30 area, and if I can pass my own test of emotional stability this evening, I may still re-enter short there, one contract QM, with a target below this recent low pivot. And if I can't do it without some tiny bit of a need for revenge, I'll wait for a long at support tomorrow.
There are two major support areas I am watching, the blue zone is so-so, but would be where crude will take hold if it is still in the mood to run. The green support zone is really what I would like t see, as it has higher timeframe significance. That zone is more of a make or break area, and may preseent a swing opportunity.
CL may have completed an ABC in the range of where it stopped, and also met the 120 minute trendline at it's reversal point.
I am upset with the market for being stubborn and for not moving on my watch, and that says I'm better off going to the gym tonight.
Short at 109.05 was a good trade. Short this close to possible support is not as good. The best move for me now is to wait until tomorrow. What the market decides to do tonight will only give more information to trade from tomorrow. Even if I went short tonight and made money, it would be a bad trade with all things considered.
(And now I hesitate, seeing if I really will hit "Enter" and turn off my computer... )
I did subscribe to the newsletter I believe Surly mentioned. I hope it is ok to post here. The news is significant in the movement if crude right now, and so I feel it is appropriate to document pieces of it here and there.
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