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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Serendipity is a word I have never used, other than to reference the movie, but looked it up when the movie first came out, and again now to refresh my direct understanding. My favorite source for synoptic discovery lately is Wikipedia, despite it's potential for flaws.
Their definition; "the accident of finding something good or useful without looking for it."
I never wanted to be a trader. Until my financial world fell apart, you could not get me to even consider it. Then I got interested due to a random thought that occured after a great loss, and a view of possibly a new opportunity. That brought on even more loss. But that time, instead of seeing misfortune, I saw something else. And that is when I decided to learn to trade. In that respect, yes, total accident.
But that definition is not the most precise application here and now, because I am looking, and I know what I want to find, I just don't exactly know what it is.
Further down Wikipedia also states; "unexpected advantages or benefits incurred due to positive synergy effects".
Yes. Benefits of synergy, where 1 + 1 + 1 = 4. That is exactly what I am after, and I am becoming convinced that there is no clear path to it other than persistance and accident. I want to blend two currently detached clusters of experience and gain a benefit neither alone could hold.
I like and respect both sides, and I do not doubt that I will eventually bring the two sides of thought together. I have no real timeframe within which to do it. Being aware of it, I just keep practicing and studying in both directions. They both live in inside one trader, so they can't be that far apart.
Here are a few more quotes from Wikipedia that I found directly relevant;
"Most authors who have studied scientific serendipity... agree that a prepared and open mind is required on the part of the scientist or inventor to detect the importance of information revealed accidentally. This is the reason why most of the related accidental discoveries occur in the field of specialization of the scientist."
"In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind" - Louis Pasteur
"All things are ready if our minds be so." - William Shakespeare
"Serendipity - the overnight success of one who has practiced for a lifetime." GaryD
The further down the list of interpretations I read here the more I like, although I'm inclined
toward a more organic concept.
In fact I had no idea there was a science of it.
I used the word on the lines of the more aware we become the more that opens up to us.
We've let go of those definitions and attachments, like beliefs etc..
The more we let go the more becomes available perhaps.
I think it's an exponential thing. The power of it increases the more we are open to it.
The more open minded we are the more we can perceive..
It's all energy I guess, in one form or another.
We get back what we think and focus on.
Not in some naive way, because sometimes we get back a very different thing to what
we thought we were thinking or focusing on.
I think we have to understand how easily we are influenced and not always for our true good, if you like,
especially when it's through a belief that we think is us.
Perhaps the book you've just bought might be interesting reading on that.
Maybe the serendipity is in finding something that has been recently relevant.
It's almost like a re-enforcement, as if if instinct saw a sign post on it's travels.
The power of that process might be seen in the speed with which things are revealed to us.
But imo, of importance, all be it a little contrary to what you said about persistence which,
I most certainly understand and from experience, I find and continue to find, as the Sun has not set,
that it's the letting go that invokes the revealing, for me at least.
The more i let go of the more is revealed.
Interesting stuff..
Enjoy the weekend...or better still enjoy everything always..
I just posted this in another thread.
Apologies to the site for repartition but....
I couldn't help think how relevant it is to a lot of what I've mentioned, all be it through my mind.
And in terms of that "serendipity" I've only just listened to this today....
It might not initially seem relevant..but as I listened there were a mixture of ideas and notions
intrinsically related on a global and personal level.
I'm posting this here, not so much about some of the other references in the interview.
but on the basis of the ideas about personal awareness, perception and
the the concepts of our thoughts and beliefs. (hoe that makes sense).
At one point there's also a mention about Greece and the Euro, go figure...
I treat it like a puzzle, some of the pieces of which seem to be about a completely different picture but we may be
able to relate them to our own lives, issues, ideas etc...in terms of shifts of awareness, the acceleration of
our mental energy and letting go, personal change, of understanding the dynamics of now, and stuff...
( Ha...Even the song at the end: "We Three" ?
Nothing about Ferrari's but I can't help recall those three men and their cars I posted previously and before I heard this...strange or perhaps it's just me )
Hope this interview with Barbara Hand Clow, is seen for the relevance that I see to the thread
and is of some interest in that light.
I wish I had the ability to rewind and record the conversation that took place in my mind over the past few hours, as it really brought everything that I have been contemplating lately to a single point.
It is more than I care to try to type tonight, and to get the thoughts organized into any real lasting written monument to the realization would probably take hours. It spanned back to pre-trading, deconstructed how my mind processes information, digested how I set goals, understood why my analysis is shaped as it is and how my current trading style took hold, and suggested how I might succesfully integrate today's view of where I want to be.
But, I don't feel well today, I hope that does not become the cause for me losing the clarity of the moment. And hopefully this placeholder will be enough to keep the momentum.
March 5, 2012, 11:35 a.m. EST Democrats press regulators on oil trades
By Tennille Tracy
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Democrats are urging the Obama administration to take swift action to reduce speculative trading in the oil markets as crude prices hover around $107 a barrel and gasoline climbs to about $3.80 a gallon.
In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday, nearly 70 House and Senate lawmakers pressed the commission to enforce caps on speculative trading adopted in October under the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. The lawmakers said in their letter that it was irresponsible to delay enforcement in light of rising energy costs.
"We have a responsibility to ensure that the price of oil is no longer allowed to be driven up by the same Wall Street speculators who caused the devastating recession that working families are now experiencing," said the lawmakers, led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.), a vocal critic of speculative trading in the oil markets.
"We look forward to responding to the letter from Sen. Sanders," CFTC spokesman David Gary said.
The lawmakers' rebuke to the CFTC is part of a time-honored tradition in Washington, whereby lawmakers and lobbyists push harder for long-held energy goals when oil prices rise. Democrats renew calls for limits on speculative trading, investments in clean energy projects and a repeal of tax breaks for big oil companies. Republicans, meanwhile, press for more domestic drilling and have started recently to call for approval of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.
Facing high gas prices during a re-election campaign, President Barack Obama has downplayed the need and effectiveness of short-term solutions. During recent speeches on energy policy, Obama has conveyed the idea that oil prices are determined by global forces that develop over several years.
The role of speculative traders in the oil markets has been debated for several years. In 2008, when crude prices spiked to $147 a barrel, lawmakers said Wall Street traders were inflating the prices for their own personal gain. Some energy experts counter that speculative traders have no real impact on global energy prices.
Position limits on speculative trading were passed by the CFTC in October, but enforcement has been delayed because of lingering questions over swaps, a complex financial instrument.
I made some changes to my trade layout this weekend, bringing back in some elements I have used in the past, eliminating the 9 range divergence and replacing it with the 9 range I used almost exclusively for about a year with great resuts. Also brought T&S back with some filtering. Changed the indicators some on the 6-range. Testing it today.
I have reached much greater clarity to some of my internal discussions and may not find a need to write it all out. However, if I can find the time I believe it would be a benefit to pass along.
Crude is winding itself into a tight spot and that typically precedes a major move. My current belief is that crude can go as much as $20 higher or $20 lower, depending on how the Iran deal plays out.
I was sick over the weekend and so did not leave town, and had a chance to carefuly select some scalps today, $112.50 in QM (25 ticks CL) and $230.00 in CL, both long. Today I approve of my taking scalps, as I entered them with that intent and was somewhat expecting a tight range today, if no major news came out.
I believe I am winding down my posting of live trades. I started doing that orignially because I wanted to show that it was possible to trade profitably, and at first I even tried to do it fast enough to help other traders catch the groove, but it is a real challenge to pull off, and does nothing for me. When I am not calm it is actually an additional layer of distraction that is a negative.
I stayed clear of the closing volume today, you could see the block orders being thrown at each side with no real resulting movement. Had I thought of it I would have increased the size of the filtered T&S which would have acted as history that could be referenced here. But, it was easy to see.
I cleaned out roughly 50 chart templates that I no longer use, and in the process re-discovered an old favorite that I used today. I traded off this as my main chart for at least a year. Looks too simple, but that is why it worked so well.
I did reach some understandings in my feverish state the past few days. I guess I have been moving too quickly to get my thoughts together and so the altered state of consciousness was just enough to push me into a different internal dialogue. I intend to create a summary here soon.
