Is it me or does the CL price action mimic the COT data very well?

The COT lags the actual chart because it is posted on Tuesdays I believe. Got these charts from

https://commitmentsoftraders.org/cot-charts/

Look where the large specs and commercials diverge/converge and the areas where the trendline breaks are in the charts...very good information there....

opts 

OX has an option spread order list (for credit and debit) that shows % return, max loss, etc. Can input the range between strikes....After hours quotes on SPX so open market hours will be 'real'...

How do you get to this? I could not find it.

kevinkdog 

How do you get to this? I could not find it.

Click the "Quotes" from the main menu bar and select "Option Chains". Then type "SPX" as the symbol and select "Call Spreads" or "Put Spreads" from the "Type" drop-down menu.

Then click "View Chain". You will see a menu bar below the SPX Expiration Months. Select the spread from the "set Interval" drop-down menu - 5,10,15 etc. and check the "Credit Spread" button. You are home!

kevinkdog 

How do you get to this? I could not find it.

Right now this is only available for the SPX and stocks. It would be nice to see this for the futures contracts also. I just sent that to their wish list.

Everyone join in and do the same!

I don't remember the last time the DX was up 0.750 and CL was up 2.00 at the same time.

CTS T4 Option Sheets webinar starting right now, you guys might want to attend.

https://nexusfi.com/cts-t4/27155-webinar-cts-t4-auto-spreader-option-sheets.html

Mike

We formed the double top I mentioned last week ( actually made a higher high) but look at the delta divergence. We currently have some 230k contracts net short but holding divergently and about 100k net longs off the 1530 low. I am also struck by down day volumes being greater than up days and the declining volume on the last leg up.

This makes me think sellers are still in control, they have let prices rise on low volume by easing up on their selling. I can see a repeat push down to 1530 if they start to sell aggressively as the current longs will quickly sell to cover their profits. We are now in the "sell in May" time as well.

The other scenario is that sustained buying will be needed to once again push out the shorties. The reason I think this unlikey is that funds are 97% invested so there is little money left to chase up prices.

Brit

britkid99 

We formed the double top I mentioned last week ( actually made a higher high) but look at the delta divergence. We currently have some 230k contracts net short but holding divergently and about 100k net longs off the 1530 low. I am also struck by down day volumes being greater than up days and the declining volume on the last leg up. This makes me think sellers are still in control, they have let prices rise on low volume by easing up on their selling. I can see a repeat push down to 1530 if they start to sell aggressively as the current longs will quickly sell to cover their profits. We are now in the "sell in May" time as well. The other scenario is that sustained buying will be needed to once again push out the shorties. The reason I think this unlikey is that funds are 97% invested so there is little money left to chase up prices. Brit

Lots of bearish divergence showing with several indicators as well. I'm letting the employment numbers work their way into the markets today and will consider a position next week.....

Looks like sell in May might not work this year. I bailed on my long puts at a loss.

The upward revisions the last few months to the employment report have been huge.

Feb initially was up 236,000. Now it is up 332,000.

Mar was up 88,000. Now up 138,000.

Interesting that restaurants added 37,900 jobs in April. Hotels added 7,200. People are spending money for things that aren't required.

It's going to take some unexpected news to move these markets lower. Otherwise a grind higher for the ES.

Quoting 

COFFEE General Comments: Futures were higher on news that the Brazil government had scheduled a press conference to announce a new price support program for its producers. The program could have the effect of temporarily causing some tightness in supplies on the spot market as selling from Brazil could be deferred. Longer term, the Coffee will still be there so rally potential would be limited. The press conference was canceled as the Monetary Authority there had not signed off on the plan, and a new date was not announced. It could be next week before the announcement is made.

Cocoa finds demand better than expected