Lance has recently wrote a short article about SR levels and their validity: S/R Levels - When Do They Become Invalid? | Articles-Technical-Analysis


I also don’t know how to asses the strenght of a level. An idea could be to look how price reacted in the apst on the level. Was the reaction fast, the level has more strenght.( Seiden).


In my knowledge, lance just watches the price action in conjunction with the levels and indeed does not asign different strenght to different levels.


Personally, I just watch the “ outher big swings” for a reaction. So, for example the market would look like the foto underneath, I would wait until price reaches swings A or B and look for reaction, and ignore all other swings.

Actually I just looked up what Lance has to say about S/R becoming invalid and he does talk about it.

He reckons the most important thing is to be aware of what the masses out there trading are thinking about it - not just the S/R afficionados but all the newby traders and the TA cynics and the TV pundits etc etc. So I think what he's saying is, there are no clear rules on it and it will come with experience!

But then he goes on to say if a level has been broken twice that's generally when he pulls it off the chart. Knowing the guy's style though, that's not a hard and fast rule.

Good enough for me though!

Zwaen 

Lance has recently wrote a short article about SR levels and their validity: S/R Levels - When Do They Become Invalid? | Articles-Technical-Analysis I also don’t know how to asses the strenght of a level. An idea could be to look how price reacted in the apst on the level. Was the reaction fast, the level has more strenght.( Seiden). In my knowledge, lance just watches the price action in conjunction with the levels and indeed does not asign different strenght to different levels. Personally, I just watch the “ outher big swings” for a reaction. So, for example the market would look like the foto underneath, I would wait until price reaches swings A or B and look for reaction, and ignore all other swings.

Man, I don't know what is happening to my short term memory. I read that article a couple of days ago.

I think for me what it boils down to is that I'm still struggling to identify what other traders are doing, where they are making decisions, placing stops, creating order flow for me to benefit from.

I guess I filed this article in the "for later" category, for when I've got more experience spotting the other traders' behaviour.

Under you see 3 foto's of the market today as I view it.
Foto 1 and 3 are same chart, 3 min chart of this morning.
Foto 2 is the 1 min chart of the selloff this morning.
You can read all the comments on the chart.
This morning I slept late so I missed the setups in the morning.
Yes, still way too much couldhaves and shouldhaves in my trading..

Slept late? It must have been a good night last night then

I like what you put on the charts. I miss all the S/R levels that make it onto my charts. I guess I use about twice as many as you, but that's probably something that will sort itself out when I start looking at the actual trades rather than just the setups. My guess is that at least half the setups I put on my charts end up losing. I'll look at today's chart tomorrow morning.

Hello Adamus,

yes I think we all have slightly different SR levels.
Looking forward to see your charts.
I completed the simtrading beggs setups for about 8 weeks. Results were a hitratio of 0.55 and profit/loss ratio of 2:1. It was very nice to see that the hitratio and profit/loss ratio was fairly constant every week. Ofcourse it was simming, I tried to capture the emotions by " forcing" myself to end the week profitable.
Using 2 6E futures profits would have been 50-100 pips per week.
I have no clue if these are good numbers or not since I have not much experience.

What helped me is the perfect trading in hindsight excercise of a member called Cunparis. After a day of simming look at your charts in hindsight and look what you should have done if you traded " perfect" , what entries you missed, and what mistakes you made.


Next, I want to share an interesting observation I made on de 6E.
It is not a beggs-setup but just crazy observation of me. I have not tested it, I just see it sometimes.
1. A low is formed
2. A congestion occurs
3. A spike to test the low appears.
4. Trend reversal.

Idea is to jump on the test-spike. Difficulty lies in recognizing it will be a spike and not a trend continuation.
See chart for example this morning:

Zwaen 

I completed the simtrading beggs setups for about 8 weeks. Results were a hitratio of 0.55 and profit/loss ratio of 2:1. It was very nice to see that the hitratio and profit/loss ratio was fairly constant every week. Ofcourse it was simming, I tried to capture the emotions by " forcing" myself to end the week profitable. Using 2 6E futures profits would have been 50-100 pips per week. I have no clue if these are good numbers or not since I have not much experience.

Your profit / loss ratio - that's the average win over the average loss, right? It sounds good. What sounds even better though is the consistency. You need to put some processes in place to take yourself to the next level. Just like the 'perfect trading' that Cunparis talks about, there are other methods as well, you need to force yourself to carry out each step of the plan.

On the subject of forcing yourself, I don't understand how you can force yourself to end the week profitably.

re: the spike pattern you are looking at - does volume analysis help? Have you tried the 'Better Volume' indicator (I think that's what it's called) - it display volume per range. I don't look at volume (it's not on the YTC PAT trading plan) but I read some stuff on another thread about it here.

Hey,

the hitratio was between 0.50 and 0.60 for all weeks ( with being positive trade if at least T1 is reached) and profits were averaged 2 times larger than average losses.

with forcing I mean creating somewhat the same emotions you would experience using real money. Offcourse it is impossible to force x pips or y$ from the market, but I meant setting a target you will have to reach. Since beggs advices not to trade real money until you are able to sim your setups for 4 consequitive positive weeks, it builds some pressure for me because time was passing by ( without income )
When you sim ( other than testing ideas and setups ) you have to be extremely serious in my opninion. You have to trade if it was your real mony. I read somewhere jstnbrg advice to trade only real money until you are able to reach some specific profit-figure in your sim-account, to experience somewhat the emotions involved trading real money. For example, would you let a trade go 20 pips against your position? ( offcourse if it is part off your plan you can, but with my " beggs-setups" it is not desireble).

With the volume, I don't know. I read a lot of Sam Seiden who states that volume is actually low at turning points, despite all literature which states to look for high volume. I think - for now- practising beggs should be enough to net a positive figure in trading account, and I want to learn some approach very thoroughly ( instead of flying from one method to another )

Did some trading this morning?
Which setups you like best?

Zwaen 

Hey, the hitratio was between 0.50 and 0.60 for all weeks ( with being positive trade if at least T1 is reached) and profits were averaged 2 times larger than average losses. with forcing I mean creating somewhat the same emotions you would experience using real money. Offcourse it is impossible to force x pips or y$ from the market, but I meant setting a target you will have to reach. Since beggs advices not to trade real money until you are able to sim your setups for 4 consequitive positive weeks, it builds some pressure for me because time was passing by ( without income ) When you sim ( other than testing ideas and setups ) you have to be extremely serious in my opninion. You have to trade if it was your real mony. I read somewhere jstnbrg advice to trade only real money until you are able to reach some specific profit-figure in your sim-account, to experience somewhat the emotions involved trading real money. For example, would you let a trade go 20 pips against your position? ( offcourse if it is part off your plan you can, but with my " beggs-setups" it is not desireble). With the volume, I don't know. I read a lot of Sam Seiden who states that volume is actually low at turning points, despite all literature which states to look for high volume. I think - for now- practising beggs should be enough to net a positive figure in trading account, and I want to learn some approach very thoroughly ( instead of flying from one method to another ) Did some trading this morning? Which setups you like best?

You could of course open an account with a spread betting brokerage where you can put on real-money trades for very small position sizes - on the forex though, not the future. But it sounds like you are close to reaching 4 consecutive profitable weeks in sim anyway.

That is one of the reasons I am staying with forex. I want to start off with $25,000 rather than $125,000 position size. That assumes I get through this testing phase without going crazy.

I don't think any of the YTC PAT setups would involve taking 20 pips heat. The maximum I see so far is where the spike reaches 15 pips beyond the S/R level. First, the 1% money management could filter those trades especially if you're trading two full lots on the futures. Secondly you might not get better than 1:1 RR depending on the target.

re yesterday's chart. if I was only allowed one trade, I would have taken the BPB at 1.4325 - although the T1 would have been a break-even for sure, perhaps the T2 as well.

I also liked the BOF at 1.4270.

I loved that sell-off at 15:00 London time, but I saw no possible entry. Nor into the retrace / profit-taking after. That's why I left it off-screen on the chart. I would stop at 17:00 anyway.

Hey Adamus,

I put some comments on your chart. Nothing amazing, but just when to look for setups i.e. when to anticipate certain setups and thoughts.
Btw priceaction way too volatile ( no ) for me right now on 6E