Listening to the podcast was funny, I like they way they split it all up to make it a dialogue. They mention both the authors of the Willpower book - Baumeister and Tierney.

In fact the stuff by Baumeister has been so widely quoted in various articles and programmes that I thought I'd already read the first 3 chapters of the book somehow - of course I hadn't, I'd just bought it.

I think a lot of it is directly related to what we are trying to do in trading, to do the right thing which we planned and not to be led into doing the wrong things.

So far though, the book's just a random collection of different scientific research, theories and examples. The author does promise to tie it all together into something implementable, but I haven't found that bit yet. So far I've got a bunch of tricks to help like: make pledges to your girlfriend or in public; have a big mirror on your desk so you can see yourself; get a mentor; monitor your progress; do things steadily, not in binges; compare yourself with a group of others doing the same thing, etc. etc..

One thing actually that you have just confirmed when you mentioned your sleeping habits is that you only have to exert willpower when you initially do something or in a one-off situation. If you make something a habit, it then requires no willpower, and you can save the willpower energy for other things. This is why getting to bed at 10:30 for me has been so impossible - I manage to do it about once a fortnight, and each time it requires almost heroic levels of effort. However now that I have my graph to monitor my bedtime, I have now done two consecutive nights and it wasn't such an issue. I can blame the graph for the inconvenience it causes when I have 10 other things to do rather than go to bed, which is what previously always kept me up.

The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)

19. Buy low, sell high, except in a clear and strong trend (see chapter on trends). In a bull trend, buy High 2 setups even if they are at the high of the day, and in a bear, sell Low 2s. However, the market is in a trading range for the vast majority of the time. For example, if the market has been going up for a few bars and there is now a buy signal near the top of this leg up, ask yourself if you believe that the market is in one of the established clear and strong bull trend patterns described in this book. If you cannot convince yourself that it is, don't buy high, even if the momentum looks great, since the odds are great that you will be trapped.

Great stuff, simple. KISS.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

No lessons given really, just to stick the plan, if anything.

Goal today

More sticking to the plan.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,338
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week, normal session 12:30 to 16:00..

forexfactory.com

Code All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday 08:00 EUR Med Spanish Unemployment Rate <- 26%! Insane. 09:30 GBP High Prelim GDP q/q GBP Low Index of Services 3m/3m 13:30 USD High Unemployment Claims 15:00 USD Med Treasury Sec Lew Speaks 15:30 USD Low Natural Gas Storage

Higher Time-frame

It is now veering off course upwards for the continued credibility of the Apr 17 swing high. Either we get some movement downwards today or we are facing some extended sideways action.

Volatility

20 day volatility 107 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 21 (10 year max 96)
As before, daily is almost at year's high 119, but hourly is still well below Feb & Mar levels, sinking again.

Asian Session

50 point range, slightly higher volatility at 4.5, something very bullish happened, probably in China, causing a surge and a blow-off with a couple of upper tails, sinking slightly into end of session. Bullish, trendy, abrupt swing points, probably held by the 1.3050 level for lack of anything else in sight.

London Session

Carried on the Asian move, maybe pushed up mid-session by knock-on from the British GDP news. Not very volatile but some chop and some rounded swing points setting in with bar overlap, tails and barbed wire all beginning to appear. Pushing up into R at Tuesday's high and looking to set up a news-driven break-out or failure with the US Unemployment.

Trader State

Physical: good, except today is a fasting day - as yet unproven bad side-effect on my trading, judging by Monday (although that was combined with lack of sleep)
Mental: good.
Fatigue: improving slowly. I'm allowing myself to have a sleep break during the day to catch up on sleep debt.
Motivation: Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.


Session Notes and Review

13:16 - instead of a lull before the storm, it broke out early. Take your time, captain, don't crash this plane.

So I managed one trade once the big sell-off had finished.

With my new monitoring taking over the role of discipline, I was checking all 12 points on my entry procedure before allowing myself to place an entry order.

I was too slow to catch most of the set-ups - a lot of them didn't give any signals anyway. The ones which were tradeable (by a trader of my distinctly average skill), well I missed 3 of them, but I caught the last one.

The first set-up that came after I started - I only saw it afterwards, didn't have a clue about going short after the news, I was trying to think "long or short" but I couldn't do it. The market had been rallying since yesterday morning and I'd figured in the higher time-frame analysis that the swing high just made and the ensuing sell-off were in danger of getting snuffed out. So that just left the news to make me bearish, and it didn't.

Set-up 7 just above the London session low gave me a short feeling. It had put in a choppy series of dojis and tails and looked like going into a rally, but then put in a couple of lower highs and broke downwards, but I was too slow and refused to chase it.

Set-up 10 was great, if a little slow and a little low on the reward side. Little spike up signalled the end of the stall and the sell-off, so I had my entry stop waiting.






Today's Result

Trade 1: 8.5 and 5.5 points
Total: 14 points
New equity in sim account: £95,377 (helped by the GBP/USD rate)

Lessons Learnt

Get quicker and better with the procedure. Why didn't I take this more seriously a year ago?

The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)

20. Every segment of every chart commonly can be classified as more than one pattern, and almost always the patterns will point in the same direction. All you have to see is just one to place a trade. For example, a Failed Final Bear Flag long can also be a Double Bottom Bull Flag, and this might also be a Bull Spike and Trading Range Reversal that reversed up after overshooting a trend channel line and a larger bull trend line, and it can progress into a Spike and Channel Bull. If you recognize any of these, you can place a trade even if you do not see all of the others.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Patience and learning

Goal today

No disasters

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,379
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week, session 13:00 -> 16:00

forexfactory.com

Code 07:00 EUR Low German Import Prices m/m 09:00 EUR Med M3 Money Supply y/y EUR Low Private Loans y/y 13:30 USD High Advance GDP q/q USD Med Advance GDP Price Index q/q 14:55 USD Med Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment USD Low Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

Higher Time-frame

The bears made a bid to get the sell-off back on track but they still have more work to do. Got to make a new weekly low if it's going to look bearish next week. On the daily yesterday left a big upper tail so that helps.

Volatility

20 day volatility 107 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 21 (10 year max 96)
As before, daily is almost at year's high 119, but hourly is still well below Feb & Mar levels, & sinking.

Asian Session

Bullish again with a strong push mid-session, range 48, volatility 4.5. Pushed away from '00 but couldn't make '50. Quite choppy but the push up was a nice trend. Just before and afterwards were choppy. Finished almost at its high.

London Session

Managed to reverse the Asian session in a long choppy sell-off. Definitely making a range day. Lots of tails, overlap, rounded swing points and terrible swing progression.

Trader State

Physical: OK
Mental: Worried about progress.
Fatigue: Some but managing to catch up
Motivation: Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts. - Winston Churchill

Session Notes and Review

Missed set-up 1 completely. Would have been good, another one gone. Only got my lack of attention to blame - I was trying to fix the slow loading data from Interactive Brokers. NinjaTrader and InteractiveBrokers is not a good combination. Who knows whether I would have picked the entry right if I had been watching.

Set-up 2 after the GDP data news was not a good set-up, the triangle was more of an excuse to let me trade, I have no idea whether anybody else watches that sort of thing. It broke upwards in a fake move and then reversed back down to the EMA20.

Set-up 3 was a classic PB set-up, beautifully formed, only low probability in mid-range. I took it and bailed when it failed to do what I figured it should do if that was a real PB. Actually I didn't bail, I had my stop above the entry candle so it was pretty close.

So far so good, except losing 3 points instead of making 10. But I'm following procedure pretty well and that loss is not going to cause any hiccups. These conditions don't suit my set-ups unless the market's at the ceiling or the floor of the range, so set-up 1 was really the only high probability set-up.






Today's Result

Trade 1: -3.5 & -3.5 points
Total: -7
New equity: £95,352

Lessons Learnt

It takes my checklist to stop me entering silly trades in mid-range on set-ups that aren't in my plan. Need willpower to resist the temptation, so I guess I know it's not a habit yet.

Cloudy 

Hi Adamus, have you considered trying tick chart or range chart? It may be these days there's too much HFT front-running and causing too many spikes and overlapped bars on minute charts. Maybe a 377 or 1131 tick chart (originally CJBooth's settings) on the 6E could help filter a little of the noise to help gauge the price action, or something like this: RangeNoGap | [AUTOLINK]NinjaTrader[/AUTOLINK] Bar Chart By RJay

Hi @Cloudy

I just saw your comment on AJ's Journal and with your comment on my journal above, I can't ignore it anymore. What's the deal with the HFT front-running and the spikes and all that you're talking about, and why would tick charts make a difference?

I looked up the CJBooth stuff and it looks interesting but there is way too much stuff for me to go over it right now, so I've put it on the back-burner list. I assume it's not directly involved with the HFT effects you mention?

And the 'spike edge' you mention on AJ's journal, I can't work out what that is - as far as I was aware he's using some DOM-based software from @DionysusToast which shows you so-called iceberg orders in the order book - which is great but not possible in the inter-bank forex market.

I'm adding another Behavioural moving average chart to my monitoring - how many days do I start my trading session on time? Today it's zero points. Very full weekend, no chance to do my weekly review so I am doing it now, and there seemed to be a hundred minor issues to fix ranging from issues with Ninjatrader (3 issues currently subject of posts on ninjatrader.com/support), a ton of information I picked up from other people, plus sleep issues forcing a horizontal time-out at 11:00AM this morning. What is bad on the sleep issue is (a) girlfriend saying "oh I wish I had the time to catch up on sleep" and (b) I actually got a good night's sleep last night but feel still tired despite that. Needless to say I didn't get to bed on time last night, there was way too much necessary stuff to take care of before being able to hit the sack. I need a sleep debt read-out in the lower left corner of my visual field, similar to the read-out the Terminator has for showing info on human targets.

(2) I am now writing down my weekly reviews. (Thanks to @BigMike for the forum, as ever)

(3) S/R - reduce the amount of lines on the screen to a minimalist set of levels when there is too much due to consolidation playing havoc with the swing points on the screen.

(4) Note my notes by writing brief but important notes down on a piece of scrap paper in front of my laptop during the session.

(5) Need to speed up my set-up processing powers in real-time. I'm going to try lumosity that Mr AJ mentioned here

(6) I'm going to take the best 3 to 5 set-ups or just plain interesting price action each week and keep it for future reference. I'll either print them or just keep them on my hard drive as screenshots and chuck out the old ones or less interesting ones when I get to maybe 30, so I've got a good library of really interesting bits of market history to dive into when I need some examples or some price action to reset my visual recognition system.

The first:



My goals for this week are straight-forward: just to stay on the straight and narrow path, implementing my monitoring to make sure I am doing so, and slowly entrenching that behaviour as habit. If I miss every trade, that's as maybe but the issue will not be solved just by diving in unprepared. If I get bored and frustrated, that's part of the price to be paid, and I won't let it be an excuse to lose control again.

The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)

20. Good fill, bad trade. Always be suspicious if the market lets you in or out at a price that is better than you anticipated, but if the setup is good, take it. The corollary of bad fill, good trade is not as reliable.

Good point, but typical comment "but if the set-up is good, take it". I mean, if you got a great fill, then the set-up just got a bit worse, according to this.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Speeding up while maintaining control is not easy. I'm reminding of that poor guy in the Winter Olympics bobsleigh event whose bob totally left the track and smashed him into a concrete pillar at max velocity.

Goal today

Control first, speed second.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,352
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week. Late session.

forexfactory.com

Code 09:10 EUR Med German Prelim CPI m/m 09:10 EUR Low Retail PMI 10:12 EUR High Italian 10-y Bond Auction 13:30 USD Med Core PCE Price Index m/m USD Med Personal Spending m/m USD Low Personal Income m/m 15:00 USD High Pending Home Sales m/m

Higher Time-frame

It looks like the Euro is entering another choppy grinding sell-off similar to the kind of PA that occupied it for most of March. This makes me hold back from taking any long-term bias unless the market's at the top or the bottom of the sell-off channel. It looks like it's at the top at this point in time @1.3100

Volatility

20 day volatility 105 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 21 (10 year max 96)

Unchanged from Friday almost - as before, daily is almost at year's high 119, but hourly is still well below Feb & Mar levels.

Asian Session

Typically volatile Monday morning. Gapped up on the open, swiftly closed the gap (3 hours), then went back up again half-way - 35 point range, volatility only 2.5 (!). A bit choppy, rounded and abrupt swing points, not moving clearly, finished mid-session.

London Session

No morning reversal, straight into a rally, low volatility, bounced off 1.3100 and got a bit choppy before falling into the 11 to 12 o'clock doldrums.

Trader State

Physical: good, eating today, no illness, just cold again but no theory I know of says that ambient temp is a trading risk
Mental: brain still ticking over
Fatigue: working on sleep debt but still a way to go
Motivation: Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. The fearful are caught as often as the bold. -- Helen Keller (1880-1968)

Session Notes and Review

Very short session today, but long enough to see plenty that I couldn't interpret

I basically just watched the market rally in a broken, stilted fashion from 14:30 to 16:30.

There was an interesting set-up at 1.3100 where I really had no bias if it was going to go up or down and I kept trying to run through my procedure to get a valid entry order, but each time it failed because I failed to work out what I thought it should show next to validate my premise. Too tired and low on blood sugar I think.

Otherwise in hindsight at 16:00 it looks perfect.




Today's Result

No trades

Lessons Learnt

I don't have enough experience to get the kind of set-ups that appeared today.

Adamus 

Hi @Cloudy I just saw your comment on AJ's Journal and with your comment on my journal above, I can't ignore it anymore. What's the deal with the HFT front-running and the spikes and all that you're talking about, and why would tick charts make a difference? I looked up the CJBooth stuff and it looks interesting but there is way too much stuff for me to go over it right now, so I've put it on the back-burner list. I assume it's not directly involved with the HFT effects you mention? And the 'spike edge' you mention on AJ's journal, I can't work out what that is - as far as I was aware he's using some DOM-based software from @DionysusToast which shows you so-called iceberg orders in the order book - which is great but not possible in the inter-bank forex market.

Hi Adamus. Sure. Here are some posts on HFT:

HFT High Frequency Trading So i keep hearing traders complain about HFT, about how its changing everything. There's a ton of posts about it all over the web, Cramer even complains about it alot. I want to know how many people really believe that trading has become difficult …

HFT High Frequency Trading 'CME Group data flap shuts down regulator's research program' cme data leak: CME Group data flap shuts down regulator's research program - chicagotribune.com (0,4124230.story) Also, imo, the report seems to imply futures trading is …

HFT High Frequency Trading HFT traders deal in nanoseconds.... Only way you can bet to that level is with tick based bars...

HFT High Frequency Trading CNBC, (2:50 minutes in) Manoj Narang on how "humans should only invest long term"; basically saying daytrading, (presumably no 30min,1,4hr, or swing trading) is better left to HFT. 3000107634 Older 60 minutes report featuring Narang's …

HFT High Frequency Trading Excellent report on High-frequency trading in the foreign exchange market SD Electronic markets: Before and after..

In general tick (or range, renko, etc.) charts can show more of the price movement like within big spiky minute based bars which are hard to gauge intrabar. I was making kind of an off-hand comment in AJ's journal because I'm a believer in that HFT bots compose most of the volume now and makes it hard for retail traders to get good fills and cause of a lot of fakeout spikes and such. Al Brooks has said he has felt the difference within the last 5 years also. Of course there is debate on both sides. I'm of the side that HFT has a significant effect on making trading harder more so on minute based charts.

This trader talks about illiquid markets due to HFT and how it's messing up his trading.
Financial Armageddon - part 2 of 5 - YouTube
Financial Armageddon - part 3 of 5 - YouTube

CJBooth's method doesn't have anything to do with HFT. Sorry, if I sounded like confusing the two. CJ's method has a few setups , two of which I really like and still look for. mainly "w or lazy w" continuations.

AJ details his spike & edge method here:

AJ's Journal _____________________ AJ's Trading Rules __________________________ Continuation - Enter on the consolidation / PB side that is OPPOSITE the direction of the trade. This keeps your loss at minimum if wrong on …

Yes, he's using jigsaw tools to help see the order flow at those critical spike or edge points. I'm still new to orderflow
and would like to learn about it more.

The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)

22. Trends are always forming pullbacks that look like terrible entries but are profitable and reversals that look good but are losers. Most trend pullbacks follow just enough of a climax to make traders wonder if the trend has ended and trap traders out of entering on the pullback. Also, the trend reversals are just good enough to attract and trap Countertrend traders. If you trade Countertrend, you are gambling, and although you will often win and have fun, the math is against you, and you will slowly but surely go broke. Countertrend setups in strong trends almost always fail and become great With Trend setups, especially on the 1 minute chart.

Is that a typo? I don't follow why he says "trend reversals are just good enough to attract and trap countertrend traders". If a trend has reversed, the countertrend trader will profit so what's he talking about?

Lesson Learnt Last Session

I need more chart time.

Goal today

Stay on the straight and narrow.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,351
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week, normal session 12:30 - 16:00

forexfactory.com

Code 00:01 GBP Low GfK Consumer Confidence 07:00 EUR Med German Retail Sales m/m EUR Med GfK German Consumer Climate 07:45 EUR Med French Consumer Spending m/m 08:00 EUR Med Spanish Flash GDP q/q 08:55 EUR Med German Unemployment Change 09:00 EUR Low Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 09:30 GBP Med Net Lending to Individuals m/m GBP Low M4 Money Supply m/m GBP Low Mortgage Approvals 10:00 EUR Med CPI Flash Estimate y/y EUR Med Unemployment Rate EUR Low Italian Prelim CPI m/m 13:30 USD Med Employment Cost Index q/q 14:00 USD Med S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 14:45 USD Med Chicago PMI 15:00 USD High CB Consumer Confidence

Higher Time-frame

We have a swing high on the 17th and a swing low on the 24th but a lot of chop in-between, making it tempting to believe it's going to evolve into a choppy, grinding sell-off as in March. Equally likely it could just chop sideways for a while in the range between the 2 swing points.

Volatility

20 day volatility 104 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 21 (10 year max 96)

As before, daily is almost at year's high 119, but hourly is still well below Feb & Mar levels and decreasing.

Asian Session

Very quiet until 6 but then sprung up to the S/R above from Friday two weeks back. Range 37, volatility 2 jumping to 3. Must have been the European economic news. at 06:30. Finish at the highs.

London Session

Came off the Asian highs, didn't revisit them, just sold off for 3 hours. Trended with good pull-backs and retraces, some tails above the swing highs, below the swing lows, stopped at the SMA50 and consolidated there thro the midday quiet period. Fairly abrupt swing points, a bit choppy around 1.3070, interacting well with the Asian low and the '00 level, and a bit of nightmare trying to interpret what it's doing at the SMA50.

Trader State

Physical: cold again - it's now officially colder inside because I turned the heating off. Today is no food.
Mental: good, but late again, annoying.
Fatigue: blew last night's getting-to-bed-on-time point. Fatigue still up there.
Motivation: Some things arrive on their own mysterious hour, on their own terms and not yours, to be seized or relinquished forever. -- Gail Goodwin (b. 1937)

Session Notes and Review

Started late for various good but avoidable reasons. So the rally had begun before I was really paying attention.

Seemed to me that the market was putting in a bounce off the SMA50 on the 60min chart during the London session. That bodes well for further rallies this week.

The rally produced quite a few set-ups and but I didn't get into a trade until the top. The problem with all the set-ups in the rally, just like Thursday 26th's sell-off, is that I couldn't get in on any set-ups. If I mess up the entry procedure timing or some other mistake, that's tolerable because I can improve on it, but a lot of the set-ups are without signals or sometimes even any good PA.

The early stages of the trend today had some interesting set-ups but I was late so that was too bad. Once the rally broke into new higher territory, it was strong enough to warrant taking pull-back set-ups. I seriously missed the one at 14:50 which was presented on a golden platter.

The break-out of 1.3150 was pretty good too with a down-up trigger on the 3-min. Missed it due to distractions. That's a discipline issue I'll only get to grips with when I've got a few of the simpler discipline issue sorted, like starting on time, getting enough sleep etc.

I felt I was also missing out through tiredness, just not getting the response I should be getting from my subconscious.

The frustration from the missed set-ups/opportunities finally got to me and I managed to find some wriggle room, a bit like Houdini in one of his performances breaking free from a heavily chained straight jacket.

I dived into one pull-back set-up at 15:18 which I knew was wrong and I hadn't done the 12 steps of control. I managed to come to my senses and bail out for B/E though. Again, it cost me later because I was away from the chart when the real pull-back set-up occured at 15:27.

This probably led directly in to doing exactly the same bad discipline entry as 5 mins earlier! Crazy. To make matters worse I violated my risk/reward rule and pulled the stops right down to avoid getting stopped out as the market put in another familiar sized pull-back. The trade got into profit, but the trend started to fail and I bailed.

I then gave into the frustration and extended my session past 16:00.

I tried to catch a bounce off the EMA20 at 16:15 but the move failed. Now that was a good trade, although I could have bailed out at a better price.






Today's Result

Trade 1: 0 points
Trade 2: -2.5 and -3.5 points
Trade 3: -4 and -4 points

Total: -14 points
New equity: £95,294

Lessons Learnt

I need to get better at visualising what sort of PA I want to see from the market to confirm the entry premise, and what PA would negate the entry premise. Those are the two points of control that I abandoned today but are totally necessary to keep my plan on track.

I think I need to practice bailing out on bad PA, but not just hitting 'close'. I think it would be better to pull the stops in tight to the end of the bar giving the bad PA, and then moving the stop along behind if it's not hit.

The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)

23. The easiest time to make money is in the first 90 minutes, and some of the easiest trades to spot are failed breakouts and breakout pullbacks of patterns from the prior day. Beginners should avoid trading in the middle of the day and in the middle of the day's range.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Need more screen time.
Need to focus my frustration on something other than getting another entry.
Need to get the hang of visualising what might happen next, good and bad.

Goal today

Discipline first. More control, less speed - I'm still in training, I have to make habits, not money.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,295
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Holiday in Europe - lower volume, more volatility if market is thin

forexfactory.com

Code EUR French Bank Holiday EUR German Bank Holiday EUR Italian Bank Holiday 07:00 GBP Med Nationwide HPI m/m 09:30 GBP High Manufacturing PMI 13:15 USD High ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 14:00 USD Low Final Manufacturing PMI 15:00 USD High ISM Manufacturing PMI USD Low Construction Spending m/m USD Low ISM Manufacturing Prices 15:30 USD Med Crude Oil Inventories USD Low Total Vehicle Sales 19:00 GBP Med MPC Member Broadbent Speaks USD High FOMC Statement USD Med Federal Funds Rate

Higher Time-frame

Confirmed the up-trend with a break above the last swing high. Tentatively that would mean the rally from July last year is still alive.

Volatility

20 day volatility 106 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 21 (10 year max 96)

As before, daily is almost at year's high 119, but hourly is still well below Feb & Mar levels and decreasing.

Asian Session

Low volatility 2.5 points, range 18.5 points. Flat except a bit of rumbling around 1:30AM.

London Session

Really low volatility at 4 points on the 20ATR. Bounced off the Asian high then made a nice little rally up to S/R at '00 and stuck there for the midday quiet period.

Trader State

Physical: good. Back in thermals rather than messing around trying to get the broken thermostat on the heating to work. Not hungry either.
Mental: good. I think. Need an objective measure for this one.
Fatigue: so far so good, not had any wave of fatigue hit me yet.
Motivation: I am never afraid of what I know. -- Anna Sewell (1820-1878) Wonder what she was talking about.

Session Notes and Review

So let me get this right: in low volume e.g. on a holiday where a whole country or two haven't shown up to trade, we have what is called a thin market. The market was beautiful looking at the trend in the London AM session. Guess looking at it in hindsight and trading it are two different things. But the max volatility was low.



Set-up 1 was one that I could have been in on if I'd been on the ball. I was kind of late and hurrying to get the prep work done and looking at the market. I was looking at it on the 1-min - a perfect PB. It was pulling out of the pull-back and halted briefly for a min and at that point because the 1-min bear candle could only manage 1 tick retrace, I knew it was a good entry. I didn't take it as I knew I hadn't gone thro the points of procedure and while I did that, it rose and came back down which put me off and then bam, it practically gapped up.

Set-up 2 was a pull-back failure. It's right in the middle of no-man's-land on the way to 1.3250 and I was expecting it to carry on straight up, but the failure of that great 3-min candle down-up combination almost got me short. I should have had a sell entry stop positioned a tick below the failure candle. I don't remember now why I didn't. Too quick, maybe.

Set-up 3 was initially going to be a long, but the pull-back failed to bounce at the 20EMA / London AM high, so I took it as a failure. I wanted to dive in straight away at the bottom of the 3-min candle that closed below the 20EMA but I hesitated, I hate seeing my entry at the wrong extreme of a bar. Instead my prediction for how it would pan out well said it would not go straight to the next level in one bar - how often does it do that? Once every ten set-ups. So as it retraced I entered where it had retrace up to the 20EMA and started back down again. I was watching the 30-sec chart. I'm not sure this is a good habit to develop - might be alright for timing stuff like that, but IB doesn't provide tick history, just minute bars, so I can only practice that live.

The market moved more in my direction but retraced over the entry point and the 20EMA to within half a tick of my stop, but then moved down to my target nicely. I put my two half-orders in one lot for this since it was strictly counter-trend.

Set-up 4 was at the swing low above 1.3200 and I got the strong urge to enter at 1.3210 but fluffed it going over my procedure too slowly and having problems with the visualization again.

Could have ended as a loss anyway since the rally reversed after poking its head over the 20EMA.

Set-up 5 was shaping up to be the YTC PAT "complex PB", starting out with a nice pair of candles doing the down-up signal but then failing to progress and putting a couple of dojis. Again I got the strong urge to dive in, short this time, after the upper tail of that succeeding bear candle spiked to the 20EMA.

I didn't enter, too slow again, and the ensuing move was way too quick and slightly too brief, wouldn't have hit my target before it whipped back north. That candle and the next had me bullish but the 1-min chart looked wrong, although not wrong enough to signal a short entry, and it was too volatile anyway.

Set-up 6 was slow grinding torture, and I tried using the hot keys to make an entry thinking they placed stops when they actually placed limits. The second entry though was good as the set-up looked about to pan out. It had my target 1 really close at 1.3200 and the failure to get past that made me bail on both parts.







Today's Result

Trade 1: 9 and 9
Trade 2: 0.5 and 0.5
Trade 3: 6 and 3.5
Total: 28.5 points
New account equity: 95,372.

Lessons Learnt

Hmmm. Yes, just need to practice more, stick to the plan, increase the discipline, keep monitoring it and of course, start on time when I meant to. Starting at 12:30 would be ideal but 13:00 will do, and any time after that is just slack, considering I have from 9:30 to prepare and just get wrapped up in other stuff.

The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)

24. When you are about to take any trade, always ask yourself if the setup is one of the best of the day. Is this the one that the institutions have been waiting for all day? If the answer is "no" and you are not a consistently profitable trader, then you should not take the trade either. If you have two consecutive losers within 15-minutes or so, ask yourself if those were trades that the institutions have been waiting hours to take. If the answer is no, you are overtrading, and you need to become more patient.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

The hotkeys place limit orders, not stop orders.
Being late for the session is dumb.

Goal today

Visualize what you think you should see, and what you think you shouldn't see for a profitable position.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,371
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day although yesterday was a holiday in Europe - potentially thinner market again.
Normal session 12:30 to 16:00.

forexfactory.com

Code 08:15 EUR High Spanish Manufacturing PMI 08:45 EUR Med Italian Manufacturing PMI 09:00 EUR Low Final Manufacturing PMI 09:30 GBP High Construction PMI 10:00 EUR Med French 10-y Bond Auction 12:30 USD Low Challenger Job Cuts y/y 12:45 EUR High Minimum Bid Rate 13:30 EUR High ECB Press Conference USD High Trade Balance USD High Unemployment Claims USD Med Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q USD Med Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 15:30 USD Low Natural Gas Storage

Higher Time-frame

Spikey day yesterday made the daily chart look ambiguous - I was looking for confirmation that the old swing high is now below us and we are on a rally again, or alternatively we are putting in a double top here and going back down.

The thought that swings it for me is that yesterday's big upper tail could be just a feint by the bulls and they'll come back stronger to continue the rally.

It is currently messing around at the 50SMA on the 60-min chart. A bounce maybe.

Volatility

20 day volatility 105 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 20 (10 year max 96)
As before, daily is almost at year's high 119, but hourly is still well below Feb & Mar levels and decreasing.

Asian Session

Range 20.5, volatility 3. Quiet and slightly bearish, again stuff going on around 1:30 - 2:30. A bit choppier than usual but so quiet.

London Session

Didn't manage the morning reversal again, just sold off down to '50 and came back up again, chopped around the hourly 50SMA and then went wild on the 12:45 European rate news.

Trader State

Physical: not cold with extra layers on - sun only hits my window here in the late afternoon. Hungry day.
Mental: good.
Fatigue: probably some, had good sleep but failed to get into bed on time again (despite the monitoring - although I have been getting to bed earlier - just not early enough)
Motivation: The clarity of solitude brings meaning to life, but beware! Meaning crumbles so easily under the onslaught of others' opinions. (don't remember where I got that from and it's not coming up in google with any hits)

Session Notes and Review

Bad day in terms of the equity curve, dented it badly although analysis will show whether it was a serious lack of discipline or a well paid-for (with sim money) learning experience. I am seriously not sure at this point, all I can say is I was I think I was trigger happy, but I did manage to hold out longer against the mounting feelings of missing out which built up quickly with all the ground covered by the Euro today.

Like I said previously, at the moment this isn't about making money despite the pain of a slumping sim equity curve. It's about building habits and search-and-destroying the weaknesses. All will be laid bare.

If all else is pure crap, at least I experienced first hand the ECB rate cuts and US employment stats double whammy. If anyone knows why it bounced around like that before tanking, I'd love to know. I mean, who was buying then? Seriously.



Anyway, I got to work for 12:50, late but better than before. I optimistically thought I could complete my prep work in 30 mins, but I need an hour. Should have started at 11:30 to begin trading at 12:30 - I still need to write more stuff down. Even my goals for the day, I spent 5 mins trying to remember what they were as a memory exercise rather than looking back at what it was that I'd read just an hour before. Stupid. Stupid mistakes are pretty cool though, they are easy to fix.

Set-up 1 was at the top of the 12:45 news event rally, it bust out over 1.32 and came back across the resistance zone, but I was too slow to catch the long entry. Ideally it was at the close of the H1 candle at 13:03 but I was running thro my routine too slowly. It just sneaked it at the target if I'd had one 1.5 ticks below the next level.

Set-up 2 came after the reversal at 1.3215 S/R, I got short, it wasn't so quick. It then did exactly what I didn't want it to do so I bailed, and bailed well, holding for it to come back a bit.

Set-up 3 was after the US news came out, and I would have got short if I'd been quicker - 3 mins seemed long enough to wait for a reaction and I hadn't figured the press conference would have a bigger effect. The market dropped below the 20EMA in that 3 mins and didn't bounce back enough - well, not until the next bar - doh!

Set-up 4 came after the crazy stuff died down a bit and the market was testing the last swing low. It pulled back real quick all in one bar on the 3-min and gave some quick short signals on the 30-sec chart but I was way too slow and within a minute it was down at the next level.

Set-up 5 put in a hanging man against the run of play which got me looking at those previous lower tails suspiciously too - so a big retrace, too quick to screw up fortunately as the trend took hold again and it pushed down nicely making up-down reversal candles but too soon - I think I was waiting for the candle to finish to place my short entry so it was long gone.

Set-up 6 was where the control started slipping. The frustration at missing out was masking any feelings about getting in or staying out, and getting that feeling is currently only a recommendation, not a law for my entries. Maybe I should change that.

Also here I had missed out the S/R level at 1.3075 where the market has sky-rocketed on Tuesday. I was trying to go short straight into that support zone stupidly.

The entry was on a simple pull-back where I figured it had bounced down off 1.3100 - I did my due diligence like greased lightning - waiving some of the usual thoroughness due to frustration and putting the stops way too tight - you can only see the pattern on the 30-sec chart.

The error on the close stops in that volatility compounded my frustration and I tried to re-enter but got the position size wrong, bailed and went to work out the problem.

Got back to the chart to see the pull-back looking even bigger and better so I got in real quick again - I forgotten how much of the golden procedure rules I managed - but I got in short for a 3rd shot and I guess I missed the volatility check because I got stopped out 2 ticks from the top of the swing high.

I still hadn't identified my omission of the '75 S/R level and when it broke the higher low to head down to the lowest low again, I entered short - still on my discipline lite version.

At that point I realised the S/R level was missing and I quickly added it in. Breaking that S/R level relieved some of the frustration and put me back in semi-control. Not enough control to ditch the position when the target was missed and the market broke back above what should have been the last candle.

I held it all the way up through set-up 7 thinking that would hold - but it doesn't do that. 9 out of 10 times when it fails to hit the target and retraces to the entry, it's reversed. At that point the set-up looked good as a break-out failure and I reversed into a long, target '00. Poor late entry - should have entered at the break of the dip down a bar earlier, then I would have been in position to handle the retrace spike, but it didn't ever get to '00 anyway.

I missed the later action where it looked likely to start selling off again more from the '75 level at 15:20 and then set-ups 8, 9 and 10 ensued fairly normally and I was back to my plodding checks 1 to 12, missing everyone of them.








Today's Result

Set-up 2: -2 & -2
Set-up 6a: -5.5 & -6.5
b.: just commission lost, putting in a 10K lot order that IB rejected
c.: -7.5 & -7.5
d.: +0.5 & -1.5
Set-up 7: -0.5 & -1

Total: -33.5
New equity: £95,235 (my ambition is to get sim account to £100K before going real money)

Lessons Learnt

Take into account the volatility when placing the stops. Doh.
Double check the S/R levels.
When frustration reaches critical mass, get out. Take a break. Go make a coffee. Whatever. Feel it, counter-act it. Doh.