1/10/2018 Trade 1: This was a good read but a bad fill and a bad non-exit. I got hit by a flipper. I saw the market pop on strong volume after showing weak bids and buyer absorption (commonly a sign of absorption/buyer refreshing), so I bought 123-165. A half second before I was filled, the bids at my price plummeted from 1500 to 600, sellers hit the 600, and the market both filled me and immediately went 1 tick against me. I should have exited at this point. I was too busy placing my stop order though, and wondering why the market wasn't bid 165 like it was a second ago.

I've tried to screenshot the trade as best I can.
Before...


and After...


This action took place in less than a quarter second. I didn't have time to pull my bid, but I should have hit out and taken the 1 tick loss as soon as I saw that I was flipped.


1/10/2018 Trade 2: I saw buyers absorbing 260, I offered 260 and was filled, and then price ticked against me again. I saw later that the morning's action was nothing but a whipsaw and I think that part of the reason that my trades were immediate losers is because of the choppy action. I put on another contract at 255 after seeing heavy seller action. I exited at 245, which was admittedly too early, but worked well because of the range-scalp nature of this morning's trade. This SOB also made me sweat. It took almost ten minutes to get my first scale out, which I've come to realize is very unusual. I was bidding 240 to exit my second contract but I pulled the bid up to 245 after not getting filled at 245 a couple of times.



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For 1/11/2018:

Buyers dominated today after some morning chop.
High = 123-030
Low = 122-225

Thesis: The players that caused pain by selling yesterday will cause pain by buying tomorrow. But wait--shouldn't market technicals mean after a significant low breaks that we get 61.8% selling and all sellers do it in increments of 69 contracts?
Of course not. The market commonly moves in the direction of most pain, and I believe that most pain will be caused by buyers pushing ZN up through 123-080 to stop out late shorts, and perhaps revist 123-135 just to make everybody scratch their heads.

The play: Stop run up through 123-080.
The counter: ZN opens around 122-000 without any real direction. Expect range scalps and tough trade like we had this morning to dominate, with an overall lower bias to the transactions.

The ON action is more bearish than I had expected. I think that sellers are really going to hit this hard, and I'm going to revise my thesis for an expectation of a push lower towards the 245 HVN and then the 225 lows. Good trading everybody!

I scaled up from a 1 lot to a 2 lot today. And, as Murphy's law would have it, both of my trades were stop outs this morning. The issue wasn't a psychological one stemming from me freaking out over the increased size. It was an issue stemming from me being ill-practiced in reading and trading choppy ranges.

And that was all we had this morning--terribly choppy ranges as traders waited for the auction. I've decided to add a rule to my trade plan. If there is an auction or other bond market news later in the day, I will not trade in the morning. I'll take the day off and get another hour worth of sleep instead of risking my capital in tough markets.

1/11/2018 Trade 1: I executed this trade very very well. I saw the absorption, I saw the sellers yank prices back in an effort at "The Lure", and I immediately executed when I saw the market drop a tick. Unfortunately, I think I ran into a bout of bad luck today. I basically ended up selling the middle of the range and stopping out at the top of the range. I saw tons of seller absorption too after I put the trade on, which is what compelled me to add another contract. Once I had been filled on full size for the trade, sellers really backed off and buyers became the aggressors.



1/11/2018 Trade 2: I saw ZN selling off and I made the decision to hop on the short side of things (a note: very few of my trades have been longs of late). I chased the market down from 300 and ended up selling 285. This was two ticks off of the low, and I was expecting a stop run lower as the day wore on. I was wrong. My execution wasn't great. I should have hit the bid sooner with everybody else and picked up a couple of ticks that way. I'm mentally frustrated at having two stop outs the very damn day that I consciously decide to put on more size. I need to be wary of my emotions going into tomorrow's trade, or it could end up being quite costly for me.

Things I noticed today during the chop:

Buyers were aggressive at the lows and sellers were aggressive at the highs. Usually it's the other way around, and usually we see absorption at lows/highs instead of aggression. This is going to be key for me to look for in the future. The middle of the range saw reeeeeeeeeally weird trade, too. Instead of a typical 1500x1500 inside market, it was something like 200x2300. The bids and offers were pretty skewed, there was lots of reloading bids and offers only to then pull them, and it was a tough read overall.

Next time I see this BS trade going on--and only because I'm not yet practiced at trading it--I'm going to halve my size and be very very picky with my entries.
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For tomorrow, 1/12/2018:

It's Friday. Things go wonky on Fridays. People lose their ass on Fridays as they try to cap off a great week with a couple of winners, only to have things quickly go south. I'm seeing a bearish flag/triangle/pennant/price action forming down here between 122-235 and 123-050 on an hourly timeframe. I'd bet that everybody else sees the same thing and is going to work to sell with trade below 122-285. If and only if we see trade down there, tons of volume hitting the bid, and price moving lower, then I will be a seller.

Otherwise I'm going to anticipate unpredictable price action--because it's a Friday--and choppy bullish trade. IMO, this would be the perfect kind of trade to stop out weekend shorts above 123-050 so that sellers can come back next week and really bash ZN again.

I traded terribly on Friday. I was angry and annoyed coming into the open because of some issues with my insurance provider, and I'm sure that this propagated into my trading. I had four trades on full size and all hit full stop. I wasn't seeing the auction well, I was trying to sell when there were clear signs of accumulation, and I revenge traded instead of following my drawdown rules.

Speaking of which, I had no clearly defined drawdown rules before screwing up on Friday. I now have clearly defined drawdown rules.

My first two trades will be on full size, no matter what. If they are both losers, I will cut my size in half for my third trade. If the third trade is a loser, I will stop trading for the day. If a second day occurs wherein I hit my daily drawdown, I will not trade for the third day.

On the other side, I will have no daily "profit target". I will have a cap on my losses in a winning streak, though. If I have two losers in a row during a day which has seen many winners, I will stop trading for the day.
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In reviewing my week's trades, I'm seeing that most of my winning ideas are coming when I'm seeing absorption on the bid or offer. My screwups on Friday all came when I saw the absorption occurring but decided that a stop run would be imminent. I traded poorly and I lost money as a result because I was not seeing the market in the moment. I had preconceived notions and I was imposing my beliefs on order flow which didn't give a rip either way what I thought. I lost money on Thursday, but I didn't trade terribly. There were a couple of options I saw in reviewing the day's action which I missed. I think I need to really really really focus better on the DOMs and the action in front of me when I'm trading. It's so easy to get distracted and let concentration lapse.

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When I am focused, determined, and calm, I am a good trader. Regardless of outcome, the only thing I can control on a daily basis is my preparation for the market to come. I can control my concentration during the timeframe that I trade. I cannot control my P&L. But, if I consistently and repeatedly make decisions which have a statistical edge to them, I will make money.
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Part of the statistics I want to keep track of are "Trades Missed". In doing so, I wish to quantify the opportunities that I see outside of stressful market hours, and determine the outcomes of these trades over a large data set. Basically, I want to see if my perception of opportunities is refined, and I want to see what the resultant payout on these opportunities is.

I'll be playing my recordings at 2x speed and keeping track of what trades I would have taken and the MFE/MAE on each.

lax99 

I traded terribly on Friday.

But you had a good plan!
(You even had some help with better core inflation numbers).

On the day prior (11th), your plan:

Quoting 

For tomorrow, 1/12/2018: It's Friday. Things go wonky on Fridays. People lose their ass on Fridays as they try to cap off a great week with a couple of winners, only to have things quickly go south. I'm seeing a bearish flag/triangle/pennant/price action forming down here between 122-235 and 123-050 on an hourly timeframe. I'd bet that everybody else sees the same thing and is going to work to sell with trade below 122-285. If and only if we see trade down there, tons of volume hitting the bid, and price moving lower, then I will be a seller.

@lax99 How did you not do well on Friday?
I don't understand.

The only thing I can think of is that you were not working shorts on the way down to stops, but you were working shorts AFTER the run on stops below the swing low (22'5).
Is this what happened?

Selling leg a/b is a lot lower risk than selling leg x/y. With leg a/b, you have liquidity at lower levels still.

kellys 

But you had a good plan! (You even had some help with better core inflation numbers). How did you not do well on Friday? I don't understand. The only thing I can think of is that you were not working shorts on the way down to stops, but you were working shorts AFTER the run on stops below the swing low (22'5). Is this what happened?

Yes, that's exactly what happened. After the market cracked past the 285 that I was looking at, my plan went out the window and I thought "Well, I might as well play the continued short side to see trade below that swing low. Part of the issue was that I didn't trade my plan to get short along with the stops at 285. Part of the issue was that I was unprepared for a market made down around 240/250 after the news.

I sold after the short location was gone, I bought after the shorts didn't work, and I revenge traded one last time for no good reason. Really, all things accounted for, I'd consider it a blow out day.

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For the week of 1/14:

I'm overall expecting that ZN continues higher. The long term momentum is to the downside, but with the strong buying we saw at Friday's lows--which exceeded the ON lows from last Wednesday--I think that buyers are going to have the upper hand this week. We also have a long term channel which saw trade near the lower bounds throughout this week.

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For tomorrow, 1/15:

I don't anticipate another break lower. There are two cases in which I'd consider my bullish expectation to be correct.

1) ZN shoots up tomorrow from the open, after opening near the middle of this overnight range. It breaks 123-010 and 123-050, which gives about 12 ticks of an expected 18 tick range.

2) ZN trades lower. It auctions near 122-270 around a few last significant lows. Buyers absorb, and the market turns up off of the lows.

If it loses 122-220 I'll consider my idea to be wrong.
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Tomorrow is going to be all about focus for me. Focus, managing loss limits, and seeing the auction process and order flow for what it is instead of for what I want it to be.

lax99 

________________________________________________________________________________________________ For tomorrow, 1/15: I don't anticipate another break lower. There are two cases in which I'd consider my bullish expectation to be correct. 1) ZN shoots up tomorrow from the open, after opening near the middle of this overnight range. It breaks 123-010 and 123-050, which gives about 12 ticks of an expected 18 tick range. 2) ZN trades lower. It auctions near 122-270 around a few last significant lows. Buyers absorb, and the market turns up off of the lows. If it loses 122-220 I'll consider my idea to be wrong. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Tomorrow is going to be all about focus for me. Focus, managing loss limits, and seeing the auction process and order flow for what it is instead of for what I want it to be.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Day off!

kellys 

Martin Luther King Jr. Day Day off!

No kidding! I sat down, saw the open barely trade 500 contracts, checked for news, and realized my mistake. I'll be back at it again tomorrow! Have a good one kellys

lax99 

No kidding! I sat down, saw the open barely trade 500 contracts, checked for news, and realized my mistake. I'll be back at it again tomorrow! Have a good one AlwaysValue47

Have a good day off and good luck tomorrow!

1/16/2018 Trade 1:

I sat around for a while this morning (relatively speaking) without trading. I didn't see any opportunities making themselves available. My first long was late. I saw ZB tick up four ticks or so around 6:35 MST and I kept my order sitting at the bid in ZN. I was finally filled on a backtick which turned out to be the end of the move. I scratched out for a -1 after seeing ZB go bid but ZN offer lower.

In the future, I need to be quicker on a move which I want to execute as markets tick up or down in tandem. My late bid was what cost me, and if I had paid up at the market (at a lower price) I would have been sitting in a better position.

I was bid at 030 around 6:50, but I pulled the order because there were no trades going through. The bullish momentum that I had seen for the last few ticks was not continuing, and my overall thesis that we'd see an 050 stop run was not playing out. I'm proud of this order pull. Three thousand got sold at the market not even a second after I pulled the order and I protected my capital by seeing this action correctly.

1/16/2018 Trade 2:

I bid 030 later in the day after seeing buyers absorbing that level and refreshing the bids to a total of 2k contracts bought. My execution was solid, I clicked right as I realized what was happening, and I didn't hesitate to enter the market. I actually "got the edge", too. ZN ticked up after my long was filled and I was sitting pretty!--but only for a moment. The market ticked down and paused for a second. I suppose that I could have hit out for a -1 instead of taking a stop at -2, but I really don't see how that was the right decision to make in this scenario.

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Anyway, it was a tough day today to lose twice in a row after coming off a losing Thursday and Friday. I know my edge is still there waiting for me to exploit it. It's just a matter of being patient, waiting for the order flow to show me a tell, and getting a little bit lucky here and there.

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Frankly, the order flow at today's 045 highs wasn't remotely bullish. There wasn't a catastrophic stop run, we didn't pop five ticks... It just kind of stalled. There were a couple of players looking to play the breakout (~500-700 bought at 045). The final tell was really the fact that buying just stopped after a few thousand had been slung around the 040 area. ZN trades 1 tick below the highs of the current range, and the best the buyers can do is 13 contracts? This wasn't the only trade that went through; however, the fact that buyers weren't swallowing up the offer and stopping out shorts up into 070 and higher has me concerned.

864 traded into the offer at 045. More than 30,000 traded at 040 on both sides of the market. Where the hell were the buyers? It wasn't like 045 was offered for ten seconds. ZN went 045 offer repeatedly over a 10+ minute period. It ended up turning lower in afternoon action, for a range of 123-045 x 122-270.
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And this leads me into Wednesday's thesis:

Players are not interested in higher in ZN. We run stops, beginning with 122-270 as today's low. If the run gains legs, we trade past 225 and then 200 on the way to new lows for the year. If I'm wrong, we'll likely see absorption around 122-250 as a sort of inverted H&S play on a 1H timeframe, and it'll be right back into the high volume chop between 123-000 and 122-290.

Nobody was interested in buying