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Non farm payroll traders here?


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Non farm payroll traders here?

  #1 (permalink)
Extra Dave
nottingham england
 
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Anyone trade the non farm payroll every month?

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  #3 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Yes, and no.

Yes - For the most part, we probably all trade the report, inadvertently, just because the market reacts to it.

No - You will probably find that many traders do not care what the report says. Personally, I prefer not to know anything about most reports, because it tends to create bias. And bias does not allow us to trade the market as purely.

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 Silvester17 
Columbus, OH
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I think what he means is to actually "trade" the report. to enter as fast as possible after the release.

a few things that are essential:

- know what the market has positioned itself before the release (knowing what the market wants to see)

- having a fast news feed like reuters, bloomberg etc

as it can be very rewarding in a short amount of time, it's also worth knowing what the other "job" numbers are (unemployment rate, private nonfarm payroll, average hourly earnings). and of course there're the revisions from the previous month that can have an impact.

a huge plus would be if the news would leak to you a few minutes before the release.

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  #5 (permalink)
 
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 xplorer 
London UK
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My 2 cents: I think trading the NFP as soon as the figures are released can be very tricky.

Firstly I'd address the question of what product to trade, given that different products react to the release in different ways.

For example, it seems usually problematic (or has been for the past couple of years) to trade indexes such as SP500 because of the interpretation of bad/good data that people attribute to NFP release, i.e. job numbers are good so some people may think that the Fed may increase interest rates and that prompts them to sell.

The products I have seen to respond in a more linear way to NFP are usually EURUSD and T-notes (10 year). Because of algos, though, attempting to enter the market as soon as the figures are released usually gets me to buy right at the top or sell at the bottom.

What has worked for me is to get onto a retracement which usually prompts for a continuation in the original direction of the spike.

Of course that approach wouldn't have worked in the last three releases including today , even though today we had mixed data: lower than expected headline figure but better than expected unemployment %.

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  #6 (permalink)
 
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 xplorer 
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Just trying to make sense of your comment Marc, you say you want to go in the opposite direction as GaryD's but then just copied his comment?

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  #7 (permalink)
Revan
Brisbane, Australia
 
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Yeah I'm looking into swing trading the non farm payroll, there is the actual report release and then there is the forecasted figures, anyone know much about where they source the forecasted figures and/or are there are multiple forecasts from various groups i.e. Bloomberg, Reuters etc?

Any links would be handy also if anyone knows some good sites, the first page of google does not always satisfy.

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  #8 (permalink)
ssp729
São Paulo, Brasil
 
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Revan, i have tried to forecast NFP... Do you think itīs possible?

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  #9 (permalink)
 
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 xplorer 
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I just realized NFP came out today as opposed to tomorrow....


I figured since July 4 in the US falls on Saturday, NFP was going to go ahead on Friday 3rd....


What's the deal? Does Independence Day get brought forward in terms of celebration if it falls on a w.e.?

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  #10 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
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xplorer View Post
I just realized NFP came out today as opposed to tomorrow....


I figured since July 4 in the US falls on Saturday, NFP was going to go ahead on Friday 3rd....


What's the deal? Does Independence Day get brought forward in terms of celebration if it falls on a w.e.?

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No, not exactly. But no one wants to give up the day off, after all....



So basically, it gets taken on the 3rd by anyone who can manage it.

As to the markets, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed on Friday, July 3 2020. On the CME, equity futures will be open only for a shortened session that will end at 12:00 PM Central Time (which Chicago is on), to accommodate the Europeans, basically. There will be no significant US-based trading volume, because no US traders will be in the equities markets. (I didn't check the other instruments, but basically there won't be many Americans doing much in anything.)

No one in the US is going to be at work on Friday if they can at all help it, government offices included.

Bob.

-------------

Update: after I wrote this I thought I would check for the official government holiday schedule, which is on the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website, which lists the holidays for pay purposes for the US government: https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/federal-holidays/

Here's a footnote they give about July 3 and 4 in 2020:

**July 4, 2020 (the legal public holiday for Independence Day), falls on a Saturday. For most Federal employees, Friday, July 3, will be treated as a holiday for pay and leave purposes. (See 5 U.S.C. 6103(b).)

---------------

Second update: people in the US will still consider July 4 the actual day, which of course it is, and this is the day for actual celebration. This is the day for barbecuing hot dogs and for beer and for fireworks and all that (probably somewhat restrained this year due to the virus, but still the real day.) But days off are not to be treated lightly. Some years ago, Richard Nixon moved to have all the official US holidays that didn't depend on a definite date to be moved to a Monday, to allow for more three-day weekends. I was of working age at that time (four or five centuries ago, I know), and I viewed this as the one thing he did that would have the most lasting impact, and so it has.

Most people probably don't know it was ever any other way, which is a measure of the permanence of the change.

Before this, the three-day weekend was a matter of chance: if the holiday fell on a Friday or a Monday, fine, otherwise we had to take days off as we could manage them.

But there is no way to get around days like "July 4" or the others that are nailed to the calendar, so we do what we can to maximize the time off, which after all is a major goal....

(But not, I will say, the only one or the main one, nor are the hot dogs and beer and fireworks and everything. July 4 is still an extremely major day in the US, other things aside, and for just about everyone, just to be clear about that.)

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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Last Updated on July 3, 2020


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