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Trading from fundamentals is the only way. IMO


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Trading from fundamentals is the only way. IMO

  #1 (permalink)
Revan
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 95 since Mar 2018
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Please read till the end.

Firstly this is rough and dirty but you get the point, secondly I don't know the ins and outs of the global economy but I'm not afraid to admit I'm wrong, I can be wrong, perhaps I am wrong, oh well then I can change and move forward but this is how I feel right now, take it for what you will.

Everyone even the pro's amongst this community are always talking about how trading is hard, I've come to realize why it's hard, it's just a coin flip.

We enter the market using whatever we have up on our platforms thinking it does something and sometimes it may but the catch is this, it's not longetive, because markets are not always so obvious and time goes by, we can't let time pass without trading, it is time without money, intraday scalper, swing trader, quarterly or annual investor it doesn't matter your time frame, a year without pay is a year without pay.

Trading sounds so "business like" when it's not a business at all, it's merely outright speculation and this will burn the ego's of some on here who like the business title! oh well! (now please calm down make use of your emotional intelligence and just enjoy my salty rant for entertainment purposes)

It doesn't matter where you set your win/reward ratio, it will even out on average to the easiest chance, every profit you make from a large target will be taken out by many small stops and vice versa.

Tell someone all they have to do is be better than a coin flip by just 5% so they net a 55% win rate, that 5% is merely a short term illusion, your losers will come near the end of the year, or next year, just you wait, I've flipped a coin and got heads 20 times in a row in some instances, just wait.


Here is another scam about this whole "trading" concept, every traded product, shares, bonds, options, futures etc.

All these things have an actual pre-determined money making purpose that is not trading the darn things!

With the bonds you fund government spending and then get paid back interest, the shares are a byproduct of income performance generated from existing companies, the futures are perfect for hedging commodities to run your businesses etc etc, all these financial instruments have one thing in common, they were not made for the specific purpose of outright speculation as much as they were made for fundamental business strategies.


This is the purpose of how these financial products are intended to be used to make money and do we use them in the correct manner?

Are we getting paid out the maturity of that bond? Are we hedging our wheat businesses for next years diminishing crop returns with futures? Are we looking at the balance sheets of the S&P500 companies??

[B]Nope! we trade based off zig-zag patterns! apparently that's the best we got.[B]


Why? - because we are not businesses and corporations, we are merely gambling speculators, that's why we don't even use the financial products for their intended design as the actual business' that moves the world does, so therefore I'm changing what "I do" from trading and formulating it into what is known as investing, I'm walking out the door, come along for the ride.


Rant/

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  #3 (permalink)
 
Anagami's Avatar
 Anagami 
Cancun, Mexico
Legendary Market Hustler
 
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Revan View Post
[B]Nope! we trade based off zig-zag patterns! apparently that's the best we got.[B]

Sweet rant, but the answer is a NO.

You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
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  #4 (permalink)
ApolloEleven
Mainz, Germany
 
Posts: 23 since Jan 2019
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Becoming a successful Trader is like being an athlete and constantly winning olympia medals. Only the best will make profits and the majority is loosing money. Becoming the best requires thousands of hours of working on your craft. And these rare profitable traders are out there, with proven track records over decades. And yes some of them are using only that "Zig Zag Stuff" on charts. Maybe you haven't met one of them so far, maybe you didn't see it yourself how somebody really is trading highly profitable and successful from home. A few of them maybe even started from rock bottom, from a 500$ trading account years ago, the usual american dream story. Wall Street is full of these stories and some of them are true.

If there is only one person in the world out there who is successfull in trading with a proven track record, it is also possible for you.

Maybe going to long term investing suits better to your character, day trading does work for a lot of others.
There are a million ways to your first million.

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  #5 (permalink)
 centaurer 
south africa
 
Posts: 169 since Dec 2018

Any business can be seen as "gambling". If you borrow money to open a restaurant you hardly have certain future cash flows, if that is not gambling then nothing is.

I have no shame in admitting I love placing bets that I believe have positive expectation. If you want to bet on 55% unfair coin flips I will take the side with the bias for whatever action you want to give within the context of a risk management system. I have a little model for betting on NFL games that only comes up a few times a year that I enjoy betting on.

I trade and even have real estate holdings! Imagine that. You can trade AND have long term stock investments AND bond investments AND hold real estate all at the same time. This is not a novel concept unless your net worth is the 10k in your trading account.

Not to mention the accurate pricing of securities is an incredibly important function of trading to society at large.

IMO only people who haven't done much valuation think a discounted future cash flow model is accurate and easy.

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  #6 (permalink)
 
deaddog's Avatar
 deaddog 
Prince George BC Canada
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
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Revan View Post
so therefore I'm changing what "I do" from trading and formulating it into what is known as investing, I'm walking out the door, come along for the ride.


Rant/

Are you going to "Invest" in specific equities based on fundamentals or are you going to go the index ETF route?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #7 (permalink)
Revan
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 95 since Mar 2018
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deaddog View Post
Are you going to "Invest" in specific equities based on fundamentals or are you going to go the index ETF route?

At the moment I'm dabbling in foreign exchange with the non farm payroll figures and their affect on the US dollar, if anyone has any suggestions on a specific index throw em up, keen to get ideas and specialise into an area of expertise.

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