I'm bored so I generated (with the R code below) right now the simplest ramdon "chart" I could imagine:

 

Code

set.seed(100) x <- c(1,-1) steps <- sample(x, size = 1000, replace = TRUE) cumulative_steps <- cumsum(steps) plot(cumulative_steps, type = 'l', main = 'Chart', xlab = 'time', ylab = 'price', xaxt='n', yaxt='n')

It's basically a ramdon walk (50% chance of going up or down, starting at zero).

If you're knowledgeable in technical analysis and/or price action you should be able to analyze this "chart". Channels, Flags, Double tops/bottom, trend lines, support/resistance levels etc. They're so easy to spot on. Our brain does a extremely good job at detecting patterns in general. Markets are pretty much ramdon themselves, but it does not mean they are intractable.

IMHO, traders have to be careful to not become "wizards of the closed markets"

I woke up feelling bullish today

But my entry was terrible...



Changed my perspective to bearish and inverted for a scratch.

Let's go!

And it's done!

Recap:

1) bought because I was bullish
2) recognized my error and inverted (with a small profit)
3) I was right this time

Q: How come I was bullish and then became bearish?
A: Nothing special. Technical analysis (with no indicators at all) and price action

Q: how did you define the exit targets?
A: a bit of intuition. I noticed I was becoming tired and the US will be up soon. So I made a partial exit at the break out leg extreme. I really knew price would at least touch $76.00 (you know why). So I waited for the possible 2nd leg down (or the continuation of the first) and exit as soon I could (because the profits so far were excelent).

brunobt 

Markets are pretty much ramdon themselves

That's an interesting statement and one I would debate. Perhaps this explains your current approach to trading? If you believe that markets are pretty much random, then you don't believe you can accurately predict their behaviour given enough skill and experience? So you say to yourself, hey, it's mostly a random walk, but I'm really smart, so if I use my intuition then I can unconsciously detect the short-term inefficiencies. Perhaps? No offence intended, genuinely trying to help

I wish you the best of luck. I you want to become a professional trader, I would start with challenging the belief that markets are pretty much random because it may be limiting your potential. Btw, I'm a computer scientist, not a mathematician/statistician/economist, so please don't throw equations or theories at me

mgcharl 

That's an interesting statement and one I would debate. Perhaps this explains your current approach to trading? If you believe that markets are pretty much random, then you don't believe you can accurately predict their behaviour given enough skill and experience? So you say to yourself, hey, it's mostly a random walk, but I'm really smart, so if I use my intuition then I can unconsciously detect the short-term inefficiencies. Perhaps? No offence intended, genuinely trying to help I wish you the best of luck. I you want to become a professional trader, I would start with challenging the belief that markets are pretty much random because it may be limiting your potential. Btw, I'm a computer scientist, not a mathematician/statistician/economist, so please don't throw equations or theories at me

Yep, you're wright.

In short:

1) liquid markets are random (in reality, they tend to be random, in some "limit" concept);
2) the observed randoness is a consequence of the players interaction (given some restraint conditions);
3) randomness doesn't mean you can't beat the markets (it's something more elaborate);
4) markets "need" traders in order to become random;
5) that's why market inefficciencies are wiped away (after some time t_0 ) by trading activity;
6) there's an economic reason (but it's a grey area) that justifies the "revenues" all kinds of market players "receive";
7) I think I complicated things more than necessary
8) my trading (mental) framework is based on providing liquidity wherever/whenever necessary;
9) price action is a tool I use to tell myself a story ("prices bounced 2 times in a support zone, leaving behind a double bottom pattern");
10) I think the storytelling part is just a pile of cr@p, but I use it all the time because it seems to work;
11) I don't have a definitive answer to explain why it works... maybe it's a grafícal representation of collective behavior (bullsh!t)
12) I'm wrong in about 30% of these topics, but it doesn't matter too

Bruno

Bearish so far



Looking for a nice swing down or a reversal up.

If it's moving I'm in

1) started bearish;
2) market did 2 legged pull back to a double top resistance (M5 chart);
3) I was selling as the market was rising;
4) fear;
5) I was still confident in my initial analysis (doji star at 6:30 in M30 chart was nice);
6) as I just can't time the market, I have to be prepared ("Anything can happen, including everything");
7) Price might touch $74.00 today (you know why) - feelings of greeeed;
8) still bearish;
9) back to the game.

Yesterday I read an introductory small book to the oil market. I love books "for dummies", but this one was for children! It's enough for me for a while

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/2333.htm

That's it for today!

brunobt 

That is not to say I'll not follow the news, but I should have a general idea of what's going on. I'll search for a podcast, magazine etc specialized in the oil/energy market.

Just to be clear (my English sucks!), I don't follow the news.... never. I'm not a market analyst and I don't know how to interpret those things. I don't even like to read about oil. Looking at price and volume is difficult enough for me.