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My 2 cents...

  #41 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Bloomberg : The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of the Market

Interesting Read


Quoting 
The top 100 bitcoin addresses control 17.3 percent of all the issued currency, according to Alex Sunnarborg, co-founder of crypto hedge fund Tetras Capital. With ether, a rival to bitcoin, the top 100 addresses control 40 percent of the supply, and with coins such as Gnosis, Qtum, and Storj, top holders control more than 90 percent. Many large owners are part of the teams running these projects.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/the-bitcoin-whales-1-000-people-who-own-40-percent-of-the-market

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  #42 (permalink)
 
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SMCJB View Post
Bloomberg : The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of the Market

Interesting Read



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/the-bitcoin-whales-1-000-people-who-own-40-percent-of-the-market

The kartels
The syndicats
The parties

THE indicators is to watch their wallet address,
if they leave, the remainder are the bag-holders
pretty easy Algo...

It does not often get that easy....

good luck...

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  #43 (permalink)
 
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It's all good. Excitement. Volatility.

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  #44 (permalink)
 
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SMCJB View Post
Bloomberg : The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of the Market

Interesting Read

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/the-bitcoin-whales-1-000-people-who-own-40-percent-of-the-market

I was at a holiday party yesterday and someone started talking about Bitcoin and mentioned he thinks the vast majority of the interest when futures trading opens later today is going to be short. He was kind of a blatherer so I didn't spend too much time trying to ask him to quantify why he felt this was such a certainty. I did mention this fact about a very small number of whales controlling 40% of the market cap. He responded that if any of those big holders wanted to leave, they wouldn't even be able to do so easily because the transaction speed on bitcoin is limited to 6 BTC per second. He reasoned that any whale who wants to control downside risk would hedge using the futures.

Bitcoin?s Big Problem: Transaction Delays Renew Blockchain Debate

I have no idea whether this holds merit, because I can't wrap my head around the relationship between a limited transaction-speed, volume, and liquidity. If the conclusion is that there is low liquidity inherent to the market, then his argument may be valid ... but that doesn't seem likely to me, for an instrument that is viewed as having the potential to behave as a global currency.

If there are 16.5 million BTC currently, then if each transaction were 1 BTC it would take 763 hours, more than 31 days, to turn over the entire supply. Is that a lot? A little? I assume most of the volume is done in very small fractional BTC transactions. If I am a whale and I need to unload say 100 BTC, and that has to get chunked out into many small transactions, how long will it take me, and what will the price of BTC be by the time I am done unloading?

If any of you smart fellows have any insight into this, or just want to call BS on it, I'd love to understand it a bit better.

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  #45 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
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There is so much misinformation out there. First, this talk on the whales: okay you tell me that you're a huge Bitcoin holder that you're going to tell other huge Bitcoin traders that you want to sale out to give them early warning. What garbage and nonsense! What is true is that you might act in concert to provide liquidity to the market at extremes.

If you want to know what's really driving the BTC market right now: it is bots. They will get on the bid or ask with huge size and push the market around by triggering other high frequency bots. But, that is not that much different from what I seen in the ES where the bots will post big size when they detect limit orders or other traders selling out and then run the HFT right in front of those imbalances. It is a bit more random and extreme in BTC though.

There is a risk with the futures. There are a few risks actually. One risk is that these whales haven't had to truly compete when the market declined. That might change and it would be bearish. Also, more volume means they can exit their core positions. This is a risk because it is presumed these whales do not need the money. They are strong hands. As they sell out, the distributions will move toward weaker hands who probably don't have as much conviction to hold.

You can move as much Bitcoin per transaction as you want. It is the number of transactions per second that are the limiting factor. The miners collect the payout BTC and the transaction fees. You compete against others to have your transactions included in the latest block. The higher the fee you pay the faster your transaction completes.

Also, none of the trading today on any exchange takes place on the Bitcoin network. It takes placed on the exchange. Right, you can anticipate they will hedge versus selling out because there are fees associated with selling out and buying back in. So, hedging is cheaper and more convenient. It is also safer because they can keep their Bitcoin offline. This is not at all new. Some of these non US regulated exchanges are already doing huge volume with way more leverage then the CME/CBOE are offering.

Remember, these CME/CBOE are cash settled meaning that someone is taking the other side of the trade for the short or long. It also means that for shorts, you have to be cash rich because you can't post your BTC as collateral. This makes the products not that great for shorting. Basically, what you can anticipate are whales hedging during some of the downdrafts who want to be long term long Bitcoin (bullish). If such a trader felt the whole thing was a bust, they'd probably just sell out their entire position.

Just to recap

1. None of the electronic trading today takes place on the actual Bitcoin network.
2. You can send as many bitcoins per transaction as you want. The fees are per transaction.
3. For every trader who shorts Bitcoin, there must be a buyer on the other hand. Cash must be posted as collateral for CBOE/CME.
4. The article on the whales sounds like it was written by someone who has no real information on the matter. Sure, they might collaborating but it must benefit them.
5. Some exchanges, Coinbase, have sell limits that limit the amount you can sell per week. This is set by the exchange. It has nothing do with the Bitcoin network.
6. As for the distribution of holders, it is estimate 80% of stocks are held by the top 10%. The top 1% own nearly 40% of all stocks. So, it does sound more extreme but perhaps not that much more extreme.

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  #46 (permalink)
 
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Another illustration of how things can become messy :

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/08/cryptocurrency-300m-dollars-stolen-bug-ether

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  #47 (permalink)
 
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  #48 (permalink)
 
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I saw some articles where a bubble burst in crypto currencies is painted/down played as "no big deal", Bitcoin is nowhere near to the internet bubble, but I think that one needs to compare the SUM of all crypto currencies in order to make a more relavant comparison. The "Internet Bubble" was not Altavista alone, or Yahoo, or Cmgi, or ...

If you notice that many of the smaller crypto currencies went up today with 20% and more, i think we are create a bubble of much more than a trillion dollar before end of the year..

A quick sum of the largest initiatives tells me a capitalization of 0.437 T$ (sorry was typo before, we are beyond 437 B$)


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  #49 (permalink)
 
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There are 195 countries in the world, on investing.com alone, i found 1364 crypto currencies and related initiatives...

The top 90 crypto currency have a joint market cap of 434.27 B$
Their value increased today with an amount of 36.42 B$ or roughly 9.15% (average)

I can understand that in the crypto currency market there is something that will make it and change the
world as we know it today. But i can not understand that all of the initiatives (i took the 90 biggest one's)
will survive and that there is a reason for them to increase 9.15% today only...

And with my payment system back-ground, i can tell you that 10 tx per second is not a system that is going
to change the world, such a system can not even handle the volume of a small country like Belgium
where the national payment switch handles 200tx / second (not even talking about UK, Germany or France
which are much bigger countries..)

Attached is my rough calculation for today..

For me this is as sure a proof of a bubble as EMC2 was for Einstein.

The only problem is that i can not calculate the top of that bubble (i'll think, maybe i'll be able to come up with
some metric, market cap stagnation, etc..

People with smart ideas can message me

Attached Files
Elite Membership required to download: cryptos.xlsx
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  #50 (permalink)
 
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Nice summary of different crypto currencies can be found here

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