NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Daily TPO homework for DAX and NQ


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one shrekchenbin with 616 posts (265 thanks)
    2. looks_two gisot with 19 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 rdaytrader with 7 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 iq200 with 5 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one michaelleemoore with 2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two shrekchenbin with 0.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 roadahead with 0.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 gisot with 0.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 64,449 views
    2. thumb_up 275 thanks given
    3. group 43 followers
    1. forum 674 posts
    2. attach_file 658 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Daily TPO homework for DAX and NQ

  #491 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

Cac cash opens inside Thursday's range. The price felt heavy.
Plenty of resistance above.
The best risk reward short would be from 4825, if it is able to trade towards that level.
Now it is even unable to trade above 4800 mark.

The key to this question is whether ES is able to break above 2630 decisvely. Otherwise, the whole equity space is still on the verge of breaking down from the major support of Thursday low.

In this environment, you should be ultra careful when taking counter trend longs. Try to frame the market in the bearish sense. See how bounces are opportunity to sell (by using the trend line break of course).




shrekchenbin View Post
Cac has broken the 4880 support, now it seems that it is inevitable for it to test the big consolidation area at 4600, where a bounce might be able to find.
Ultimately, that level is going to break as the overhead supply is going to weight on the price to break towards a full 200% extension of the crown formation or M top formation.


In the execution time frame, we should not chase too much into the low as the price has been over extended to the low and market positioning is overly short. The path of least resistance is for it to bounce up to seek some buy stops before


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
Online prop firm The Funded Trader (TFT) going under?
Traders Hideout
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
59 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
36 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
25 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
19 thanks
The Program
19 thanks
  #492 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

1. The market positioning in ES during the globex session is neutral with a slight bullish tilt based on hope of over sold bounce.
The bulk of the overnight inventory has been placed below 2620 and 2630, hence a sharp mark up into the 2650 is going to be met with profit taking. Looking above 2650, the ES would run into strong overhead supply zone at 2655. The 2671.25 is the key area of resistance to watch because it is the 61.8 fib of the whole Friday decline and the initiation point of the upthrust leg out of the Friday open. The bears would have the benefit of the doubt so long as the price is held below at that level.

If ES really wants to go lower, it is very likely to auction higher into those resistance zone for the bears to get a better trade location for their shorts.



2. The Russell has more constructive base formation. I would like to buy into a successful test of the 1442 level for a spring setup. The key resistance of the day is also the 61.8 fib of the whole Friday decline at 1468.7.

Reply With Quote
  #493 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274


1. Cac has made a new lower low. But beware of the possibility that it could develop into a h reversal pattern.
At this moment of speaking, the Cac is positioning just above the 2 day VWAP which is usually a chop zone. Either bear or bulls could initiate from that point on. Hence I am sitting on my hands to see what Cac is trying to do.

By looking at the longer term chart, I like the idea of waiting for the price to trade high into a stronger resistance before taking a short. The good resistance lies at 4815, which is the 61.8 fib of the two legged decline, and 4825, which we have identified yesterday.

Reply With Quote
  #494 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

It stays in balance waiting for a break out.



shrekchenbin View Post
1. Cac has made a new lower low. But beware of the possibility that it could develop into a h reversal pattern.


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #495 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

Yesterday's late rally in ES was certainly impressive but at the same time desperate.
Because the big buyers know all too well that if the 2600 neckline (at this moment it is still a support line) breaks, the top formation would complete and the buyers of this year would all be trapped at the high. This is going to create an overhead supply or, even worse, rush for an exit door.

Yesterday, the big buyer gained an upper hand by pushing the price high enough to clip the session high to run stops. However, the big sellers quickly re-emerged. Today's NY session would be very crucial. My primal hypo is for it to range below 2645 and 2580 in order to prepare energy for a bigger bounce into the 2700 region.

There is also a possibility that the neckline would break today or tomorrow. Given what i have seen up to now, the neckline is not going to hold for very long in ES.



shrekchenbin View Post
1. Cac has made a new lower low. But beware of the possibility that it could develop into a h reversal pattern.
At this moment of speaking, the Cac is positioning just above the 2 day VWAP which is usually a chop zone. Either bear or bulls could initiate from that point on. Hence I am sitting on my hands to see what Cac is trying to do.


Reply With Quote
  #496 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

NQ has broken a W bottom formation, the 200% extension of that pattern would set this instrument to 6905 level, which is above a cluster of swing points.
This would be a nice target for the market maker to squeeze the shorts and run stops.

Reply With Quote
  #497 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

ES has a similar bullish reversal pattern.
The pattern fulfillment could sent price close to 2780.
The situation is remarkly similar to that of the Week of Nov 19, when weak shorts are trapped at the low.

What follows an entrapment of the shorts are short squeeze. But I would expect a lower high to be formed somewhere below 2800 and then back down to take out the neckline at 2600 decisively on a close basis.

Out of the open, you should monitor buyer failure pattern for shorts instead of selling blindly into potential resistance.
The market positioning of the last few days have been very short, the possibility of a violent snap back to correct the inventory is very high.
Note that we would have soon have a bullish gap open in ES. Go with the unclosed gap as the gap trading rule holds for the day unless something substantial happens.




shrekchenbin View Post
NQ has broken a W bottom formation, the 200% extension of that pattern would set this instrument to 6905 level, which is above a cluster of swing points.
This would be a nice target for the market maker to squeeze the shorts and run stops.


Reply With Quote
  #498 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

1. Cac has caved out a big base formation. A successful break of that formation could send this price back above 4900 to retest the neckline of the big M top. The medium to long term bias remains bearish, but we should keep an open mind for the market to move from too short to balance or even short term too long. In the weekly time frame, the market is positioning itself below the weekly pivot at this moment. A better risk reward shorts are available when it probes above the weekly pivot.

At this moment, I am monitoring two trend lines to guide my bias visually. Basically, follow the trend line, until it breaks.


Reply With Quote
  #499 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

1. ES is poised to open above yesterday's value but within yesterday's range. It is likely that it ES is going to probe higher on the back of bear exhaustion. I am still looking at the 200% extension and weekly R1 area to be the likely location the bulls are targeted for this week. The 2760 to 2780 is the area with great risk reward for shorts.


2. Russell has been the weakest of the big four US indices. The best short scenario for short is for it to have a false break of this triangle and then falls back below the trend line. In the shorter term time frame, it is bullish and prices are not over extended above the two day value area.

Reply With Quote
  #500 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274


Cac runs into a major support turned resistance and got a rejection there.
This could mark the weekly high just before ECB. The major trend is down in European equity space, I don't really see Draghi is able to do anything to buck the trend because it is out of his mandate.

If there is a spike during the press conference, then it would be a news driven false rally providing me the best opportunity to sell at a better price.

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on March 29, 2019


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts