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Search: Posts Made By: Surly
Forum: Trading Journals November 25th, 2014, 10:51 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Like MFB says - doesn't matter, just don't fade...

Like MFB says - doesn't matter, just don't fade it. OPEC meeting Thursday so all the delegates are in Vienna and so rumors are going to be flying all week so stuff like this will likely keep...
Forum: Trading Journals November 21st, 2014, 10:26 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
daily EMAs CL

The globex rally last night took us right to the 20 EMA on the daily chart. First time we've touched the 20 EMA since October 1st. Only reason I care about this is that is graphically represents...
Forum: Trading Journals November 21st, 2014, 09:55 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
cl trendline

Here's those same trendlines again.

https://futures.io/attachment.php?attachmentid=166756
Forum: Trading Journals November 19th, 2014, 09:01 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Yes - we are traders, not analysts. We have to...

Yes - we are traders, not analysts. We have to rely on the chart to tell us what to do and what not to do. At the end of the day:

"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"...
Forum: Trading Journals November 19th, 2014, 08:52 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Crude in Contango

The price of all forward contracts in the WTI market have been in backwardation for the last several months. IOW, the price of the forward months have been below, in some cases $2 below, the front...
Forum: Trading Journals November 14th, 2014, 10:29 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
I agree completely. I've drawn this channel with...

I agree completely. I've drawn this channel with lines but those lines need to be 100 ticks wide. I think that markets are very visual (ala Jim Dalton) and so yes, these lines represent supply and...
Forum: Trading Journals November 14th, 2014, 10:09 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Currencies

Currencies seem like the most "macro" markets out there - they are all in relationship with each other and are valued by the economic relationships and competitions between whole nations. They are...
Forum: Trading Journals November 14th, 2014, 09:47 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
CL Trendlines

I've been watching these trendlines for weeks now. I keep adjusting the upper trendline as CL makes bounces and that trendline continues to be very easy to fit to the reaction levels - in other words...
Forum: Trading Journals November 12th, 2014, 12:29 PM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
I like this rule. I'm writing this down... ...

I like this rule. I'm writing this down...

Here's some music while I wait.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA2el5NSlfc
Forum: Trading Journals November 12th, 2014, 12:27 PM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Thanks for this - I'm starting to see how CL...

Thanks for this - I'm starting to see how CL works like this: lunch hour, games (flush above HOY), etc. The mistake I made today was getting scared off of longs by the flush down into 77.25 at 10 am...
Forum: Trading Journals November 12th, 2014, 10:35 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
FWIW

While I'm waiting for oil to recover from its recent move, here are some pretty pictures. I started late this morning and so saw the failed A down after 8:30 cst. I am reading the current situation...
Forum: Trading Journals November 10th, 2014, 05:46 PM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Yes! "reasonable risk" has to be based on market...

Yes! "reasonable risk" has to be based on market generated information. I'm entering the trade because of market-generated information (can't make it above the OR and hold/follow-through then can't...
Forum: Trading Journals November 10th, 2014, 02:40 PM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Aarrrgh. I got fooled by this as well. The strong...

Aarrrgh. I got fooled by this as well. The strong move up in the European session threw me off. Its done that a hundred times before and each time I am somehow thrown off by it. We were struggling...
Forum: Trading Journals November 7th, 2014, 01:15 PM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Availability Bias and Breakouts

I don't want to distract from the thread but I wanted to post a personal observation about my own trading that may help others and hopefully also help me. We are at the top of a clear range in CL...
Forum: Trading Journals November 7th, 2014, 10:35 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
trading from resistance

I was a bit late getting into this as I was having trouble with my data connection (not getting realtime for several instruments). The question is, where to take 1 off? My first look will be the open...
Forum: Trading Journals November 7th, 2014, 09:14 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
CL 8:15 am cst

For now I see CL as triangulating (slowly forming a "triangle" or consolidation) after the big spike down to 76. Because we are well within the range of 2 days ago I am thinking of today as an...
Forum: Trading Journals November 6th, 2014, 11:41 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Thanks for this - after I opened a long from...

Thanks for this - after I opened a long from 77.50 area I was just not seeing any buying coming in and bailed. When I saw the market flush below the rth low of yest and bounce back up I took a long...
Forum: Trading Journals November 6th, 2014, 09:33 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Draghi and the ECB

Press conference just finished. I think the biggest take home is that Draghi said very clearly that the ECB balance sheet would continue to expand while "other CB" balance sheets will contract (here...
Forum: Trading Journals November 5th, 2014, 08:52 AM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
A new Soros

This will rally gold but it might just provide an opportunity for someone like George Soros to come along and break the Swiss National bank. Now that would be a big play!

Short CL from 77.57,...
Forum: Trading Journals October 20th, 2014, 06:43 PM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Thanks - yes, that is a good enough reason....

Thanks - yes, that is a good enough reason. Lately we've had much bigger ranges so it seems the possibility is higher for larger ranges to occur. But the probabilities almost certainly still favor...
Forum: Trading Journals October 20th, 2014, 04:17 PM
Replies: 1,262
Views: 104,565
Posted By Surly
Nice work on that short from the open. The...

Nice work on that short from the open.

The reversal in CL around 81 was difficult for me to recognize in real time - kept seeing places to short while CL climbed from 81 back the low 82's. The...
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