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Search: Posts Made By: Fat Tails
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index October 15th, 2011, 04:20 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
Interesting analysis.... Short term impact...

Interesting analysis....

Short term impact of purchasing treasuries : Drives up demand and therefore lowers interest rates, drives down exchange rate.

Medium term impact of purchasing...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 20th, 2011, 04:58 AM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
America's Debt Burden

Financial Times (German Edition), April 20, 2011.


https://futures.io/v/6pdmmp.jpg


Charts attached for 6E and GC.
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 14th, 2011, 06:59 AM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
The $ is the quote currency for index futures and...

The $ is the quote currency for index futures and commodities. So there is always a positive correlation induced by its strength or weakness. Sometimes you think that you trade index futures, but in...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 12th, 2011, 12:55 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
Some more fundamentals

A simple calculation per today

US public debt per today: $ 9,652,196,858,759.48
Source: Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 9th, 2011, 11:49 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
POMO Rally and the Fundamentals

Some links allowing a fundamental view on the Dollar Index.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/117xx/doc11705/Budget_Chartbook_Show_SlideShare.pps
...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 9th, 2011, 05:29 AM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
Just a technical note

When comparing absolute values over a longer period, merge-backadjusted charts can be misleading. Although they display the relative size of swings accurately and can be used for Fibonacci analysis,...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 5th, 2011, 06:41 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
The wheel is reinvented from time to time. Let us...

The wheel is reinvented from time to time. Let us look at what market profile really is:

It is a simplified volume distribution (based on TPOs instead of real volume) allowing to produce a picture...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 5th, 2011, 04:50 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
Naked POC ?

This is not invisible on a chart. There was a narrow range day on Thursday 31st, which extended into the night session (Globex) of Friday April 1. Prices then broke out to the upside and came back to...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 4th, 2011, 01:02 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
Have a fib confluence line around 1329.75 (not...

Have a fib confluence line around 1329.75 (not shown). Below chart with a single indicator, analyzing price action.
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 4th, 2011, 12:09 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
I only finished the multi time frame auction...

I only finished the multi time frame auction range indicator this morning. Something new. :)

The fib indicator is not available for free. And the colored ranges are just there to show off a bit,...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index April 4th, 2011, 11:42 AM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
Comparing the Picture

This is my picture for ES. Price action is a little above the pivot range and the rolling 3 day pivot range (which includes the balance point). This makes up for a slightly bullish to neutral...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index March 29th, 2011, 05:31 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
Just some Fib Retracements for the same chart.

Just some Fib Retracements for the same chart.
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index March 29th, 2011, 10:11 AM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
An Example of a VWAP Trade

This is an example of a nice VWAP trade.

CL is in an uptrend and retraces to a support zone as identified

- by the VWAP of the current session
- the floor pivot S1
- the supertrend indicating...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index March 29th, 2011, 06:17 AM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
No, we are not putting on size and we do not use...

No, we are not putting on size and we do not use the VWAP as a benchmark. But as small traders we may exploit the behavior of the larger market participants. If the VWAP is regularly sold, I may...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index March 28th, 2011, 04:23 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
VWAP or Pivot Range?

Afterwards the price action always looks meaningful. But were you able to predict, that the VWAP would win against the pivot range?
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index March 28th, 2011, 03:47 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
An alternative way of presenting the range,...

An alternative way of presenting the range, detected by simple expansion bar indicator.

These were two consecutive narrow range days, which increases the probability for a trending day tomorrow.
...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index March 24th, 2011, 05:21 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
ISEE sentiment jumped from 74 yesterday to 173...

ISEE sentiment jumped from 74 yesterday to 173 today.

Yesterday the index had the second lowest value of 2011 (after March 10) , today it has the fourth highest (after January 5, January 18 and...
Forum: Emini and Emicro Index March 24th, 2011, 04:26 PM
Replies: 926
Views: 137,490
Posted By Fat Tails
I had expected an up move today. Reason was...

I had expected an up move today. Reason was yesterday's extremely low reading of the ISEE index (put/call ratio) in combination with an upclose. This showed that

- there was fear and uncertainty...
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