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Search: Posts Made By: Narcissus
Forum: Trading Journals Today, 05:46 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Thanks for your comments. Stats is the...

Thanks for your comments.

Stats is the beginning of my homework/prep for daytrading. It tells me only about the PAST i.e winner in the market by the END of the day in similar market conditions. I...
Forum: Trading Reviews and Vendors Today, 03:25 AM
Replies: 41
Views: 26,865
Posted By Narcissus
I took a trial membership for 1 month @...

I took a trial membership for 1 month @ www.marketlife.com

I highly recommend him to any beginner or intermediate trader. Though I may not be renewing my subscription, the money is well spent. I...
Forum: Trading Journals Today, 03:07 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
The best teacher I had in trading so far is ... ...

The best teacher I had in trading so far is ...

Adam H Grimes.

He has so much free stuff in his website marketlife.com and some amazing insights in his blog.

I briefly mentioned in Salao...
Forum: Trading Journals Yesterday, 02:46 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
I agree. I focus mostly on the odds. Reasoning is...

I agree. I focus mostly on the odds. Reasoning is just a comfort blanket.:sarcastic:

Thanks for your thoughtful comments.:)
Forum: Trading Journals Yesterday, 10:47 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
It's a high probability trade based on a large...

It's a high probability trade based on a large data set of 5000 trading days over 20 years. Gap down probability for Monday is around 65% but I agree that the next event has 50% statistical outcome....
Forum: Trading Journals Yesterday, 08:21 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Smart vs Stupid decision I learnt something...

Smart vs Stupid decision

I learnt something very powerful, yet very obvious, from the book 'Thinking in Bets'.

When we think about our stupid decisions in the past, usually we think of bad...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 10:47 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
The Bull market resumes My equity curve had...

The Bull market resumes

My equity curve had a pullback last week and we are seeing an impulse move now.

Odds worked in my favor this week. Though my scale in/out was somewhat conservative this...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 10:33 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 24 2022 Review Long bias executed well...

June 24 2022 Review

Long bias executed well but not aggressively (i.e no scale in or re-entry).

1/2 size @ RTH open and scale out within an hour. After that there were limited opportunities and...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 11:38 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 24 update 2 Still flat and price...

June 24 update 2

Still flat and price holding in the 3880s.

I was considering buying 60s, above vwap but may call it a day and have an early weekend.

Meanwhile, I have an interesting...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 10:14 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 23 update 1 That's a pretty quick and...

June 23 update 1

That's a pretty quick and impressive move by the bulls.

Long 1/2 size at open. Reluctantly, I have to add.

After 10 AM spike, I sold half at 3870 and the rest at 83. Flat...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 08:54 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 23 2022 Friday Prep Stats are bullish. ...

June 23 2022 Friday Prep

Stats are bullish.

Plan is to go long @ RTH open 1/2 size.

I'm unsure whether adding to a winner above ONH is a better strategy or adding to a loser @ vwap a good...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 07:13 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Stat Session - Gap UP Since I'm considering...

Stat Session - Gap UP

Since I'm considering overnight holds in the near future, currently studying the historic patterns of gaps.

Over the last 20 years, RTH opened gap UP 2600 vs gap Down...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 05:55 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Follow up conversation ---- The rules we...

Follow up conversation
----

The rules we need depend on our individual weak spots.

I picked up my 3 cardinal sins and imposed FIRM rules to tackle them.

Sin 1 - Holding losers overnight...
Forum: Trading Journals June 24th, 2022, 12:22 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Response to another elite member's journal entry ...

Response to another elite member's journal entry

"Lately I've been considering whether or not there's something seriously wrong with me which would make it so that I'm not cut out for trading."
...
Forum: Trading Journals June 23rd, 2022, 11:44 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 23 Review Short bias executed as per...

June 23 Review

Short bias executed as per plan. Seemed to work really well. Scaled out at the best location (retest low) and then scaled in on the bounce. When I began to pat myself, I should have...
Forum: Trading Journals June 23rd, 2022, 11:30 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 23 update 2 Short 1/2 size. ...

June 23 update 2

Short 1/2 size.

Extremely choppy with a slight bullish slope but my bearish bias persists. Anyone using Moving average or other trend following system will be having a very...
Forum: Trading Journals June 23rd, 2022, 10:20 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 23 update Went short as planned and...

June 23 update

Went short as planned and seemed to be working and scaled in after vwap test. Howevere, due to DTN data issues, there was a bit of lag in charting. Hence went flat. Unfortunately...
Forum: Trading Journals June 23rd, 2022, 09:19 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 23 2022 Thursday Prep Somewhat...

June 23 2022 Thursday Prep

Somewhat conflicting data. Though it's bullish, the 'odd days of ETH down RTH up' I'm less confident of the calculations.

When I consider these unique factors, it's...
Forum: Trading Journals June 23rd, 2022, 02:32 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Combining probabilities to improve execution ...

Combining probabilities to improve execution

I wrote in my #11 post about the 'odd days'. RTH higher close but ETH lower close.

The following day is more likely to be bearish. Whilst I'm...
Forum: Trading Journals June 22nd, 2022, 11:59 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Collision of probabilities When we have 2...

Collision of probabilities

When we have 2 opposing probabilities based on price action, it can be confusing.

For example, we had an Outside reversal day with lower close yesterday. It was also...
Forum: Trading Journals June 22nd, 2022, 10:45 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 22 2022 Review Bullish bias executed...

June 22 2022 Review

Bullish bias executed very well.

Scale in was a bit more aggressive in the first 30 mins and exercised more patience in scale out.

My final scale in could have been...
Forum: Trading Journals June 22nd, 2022, 12:30 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
June 22 Update 2. Picked up 1/4 size just...

June 22 Update 2.

Picked up 1/4 size just above ETH vwap. Not sure whether I will add but sure will hold this till EOD.

-------------------

Fun stats. We are having a very unusual day...
Forum: Trading Journals June 22nd, 2022, 10:44 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
July 22 update 1 Long @ open as momentum...

July 22 update 1

Long @ open as momentum shifted to bullish @ RTH open.

Able to scale in and out twice and at a better location today. Currently flat.

Still looking to go long at the next...
Forum: Trading Journals June 22nd, 2022, 09:19 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
July 22 2022 Wednesday Prep Stats are...

July 22 2022 Wednesday Prep

Stats are BULLISH.

But there is a dilemma. Trend and momentum indicators are still bearish.

I can play this in 3 different ways.

1. Wait for trend &...
Forum: Trading Journals June 21st, 2022, 11:19 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 3,749
Posted By Narcissus
Strange stats - Big Gap Days When we get BIG...

Strange stats - Big Gap Days

When we get BIG gap days (defined by the time frame i.e biggest in the last 20 days/ 1 month, rather than the actual size), the following day is quite bearish. Sample...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 340

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