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Search: Posts Made By: ddouglas
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 7th, 2012, 11:48 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 28,632
Posted By ddouglas
Yes, excellent! That's all I was trying to say...

Yes, excellent! That's all I was trying to say in the first place.

Then, it's the trader's job to try to make each parameter have the highest probability of winning - ie, taking with-trend...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 7th, 2012, 11:16 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 28,632
Posted By ddouglas
Does this mean you have no probability of...

Does this mean you have no probability of winning? Or a un-determinable probability of winning? In all reality, neither one of these things is true. Not only do you still have a probability of...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 7th, 2012, 10:07 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 28,632
Posted By ddouglas
Yes, exactly. Then you cannot fairly...

Yes, exactly.



Then you cannot fairly discuss probability - because probability without market context is the only way to compare trading performance against pure "random chance alone."

This...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 7th, 2012, 09:13 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 28,632
Posted By ddouglas
I didn't say anything about random walk - nor do...

I didn't say anything about random walk - nor do I subscribe to it.

I said that the idea of 50% probability is wildly flawed, and does not account for the other parameters that are imposed on...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 7th, 2012, 08:42 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 28,632
Posted By ddouglas
I don't want to rain on your party, but you...

I don't want to rain on your party, but you understand what I mean, right? I hear "50%" all the time from all kind of different sources.

Truth is, the minute you add a qualifier to that 50%, it...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 7th, 2012, 08:13 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 28,632
Posted By ddouglas
This is more than highly arguable, it's downright...

This is more than highly arguable, it's downright false. The chance of the market moving in the direction of the trade is, in fact 50/50 - as the market can only go with or against the trade...
Showing results 1 to 6 of 6

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