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Search: Posts Made By: Sagal
Forum: Options on Futures June 16th, 2019, 08:25 AM
Replies: 7,113
Views: 935,470
Posted By Sagal
I am with you at 100% and this is also my...

I am with you at 100% and this is also my strategy (after mixed results trying to get 4 spread contracts expiring each month and opening them 4 months in advance).
Forum: Options on Futures June 16th, 2019, 06:37 AM
Replies: 7,113
Views: 935,470
Posted By Sagal
Good to see some fresh thinking on this topic. ...

Good to see some fresh thinking on this topic.
My impression for commodities with regards to Cordier's recommendation is that a lot has changed since he wrote his books:
- of course he went...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 9th, 2019, 08:40 AM
Replies: 105
Views: 9,138
Posted By Sagal
Maybe it was an old post like the one on...

Maybe it was an old post like the one on seasonality but I noticed that you were once involved in oats myrddin. Is is still the case?
I have an unachieved story with oats, I started to really like...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 9th, 2019, 08:25 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 86
Posted By Sagal
Copper is called: 'Dr Copper' for a good reason...

Copper is called: 'Dr Copper' for a good reason isn't it?
So it correlates with industrial activity and expansion of the infrastructure (road, highway, airport etc.) and the home market activity...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 9th, 2019, 04:49 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,582
Posted By Sagal
Good to know myrddin. I have a Naked Put Option...

Good to know myrddin. I have a Naked Put Option for November on Silver at 13.75. But even if it goes well, it will be far from making up for some recent losses with spread options in May for gold and...
Forum: Traders Hideout June 8th, 2019, 12:22 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 5,155
Posted By Sagal
After reading Briese's book on COT, I found his...

After reading Briese's book on COT, I found his website which is great and another one to which I have just made a donation as I really like it a lot (in particular the seasonality graph and the COT...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 5th, 2019, 03:43 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Good for you for the Coffee... Well if it goes ...

Good for you for the Coffee...
Well if it goes below 98 I will change my short-term views

Fundamental is mixed for Cotton and as for many things currently will depend on tariff issues. On top of...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 5th, 2019, 02:59 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Few comments today on OJ and Coffee C. For OJ,...

Few comments today on OJ and Coffee C. For OJ, the short-term picture is darkened but I didn't check the forecast, hurricane etc.
For Coffee C I knew that it can only be very difficult...that's...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 4th, 2019, 02:38 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Maybe the first sign of a slow down for Orange...

Maybe the first sign of a slow down for Orange Juice. High of the day: 112.6 Low of the day: 107. Volume 1119. These data summarized what I do not like with OJ...
The week is not over, currently...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 1st, 2019, 06:08 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,582
Posted By Sagal
Concerning Gold, do no miss the extensive gold...

Concerning Gold, do no miss the extensive gold report below from "in gold we trust" (as I mentioned recently I bought Van Eck Gold miners ETF ) and with around 18% of my capital invested in precious...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading June 1st, 2019, 03:58 AM
Replies: 46
Views: 2,637
Posted By Sagal
November and December 2018 I was buying the dip...

November and December 2018 I was buying the dip and I was bullish and quite sure that 58 on the brent will hold, then sure that 50 should hold and I used at a time for a short period up to 3 long...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 31st, 2019, 06:55 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Right I mixed up the name. I think I got your...

Right I mixed up the name.
I think I got your point as summarized in this article
https://www.hedgefundtips.com/what-the-commitment-of-traders-says-about-orange-juice-futures/


The COT...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 31st, 2019, 12:45 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Record net short position for commercials for OJ...

Record net short position for commercials for OJ was -33170 on 11/18/1997
Record net long position for commercials for OJ was + 9102 on 07/03/2001

Record net short position for non-commercials...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 30th, 2019, 02:46 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Concerning OJ as we discussed I am not as sure as...

Concerning OJ as we discussed I am not as sure as you are.
Seasonality. End of June beginning of July on 5, 15 and 40 years is one of the three lowest points of the season and lower than May.
AT is...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 30th, 2019, 11:43 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Edit on COT books:...

Edit on COT books: https://cotbase.com/resources/books
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 30th, 2019, 10:04 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
I found this technical publication that is...

I found this technical publication that is reflecting my views on the question (the conclusions)
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6566076.pdf
One day I will read one or both of the two...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 30th, 2019, 09:31 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
For what it's worth the book has 2.5 stars at...

For what it's worth the book has 2.5 stars at amazon review and 54% of buyers that commented on (out of 22 in total) gave one star.
But it is correct that I didn't read his book.
Briese's one has...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 26th, 2019, 04:39 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Ok I got it. Except for some very specific...

Ok I got it.
Except for some very specific commodities and in some specific occasions (precious metals, some softs?) I still have the impression that most of the COT users are more watching the...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 25th, 2019, 08:24 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 2,374
Posted By Sagal
Time to come back on this topic. OK there was...

Time to come back on this topic. OK there was 31.4MMT of lean hogs bought by China this week but the real question for me (I am short call option at 114 HEQ19 and it has already lost more than 70%...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 25th, 2019, 05:43 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,582
Posted By Sagal
https://futures.io/attachment.php?attachmentid=266...

https://futures.io/attachment.php?attachmentid=266230
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 25th, 2019, 05:37 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,582
Posted By Sagal
Finally I went to a long term long position on...

Finally I went to a long term long position on Gold Miners (Van Eck Gold Miners ETF). My Platinum ETF position started in 2016 is in red so I am careful there.
To go on with the discussion on the...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 25th, 2019, 05:13 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
On Coffee C my positions are currently bullish...

On Coffee C my positions are currently bullish but in my opinion it will be short-lived and ready to go the other side (up to September-October then again from February 2020 on) particularly if the...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 25th, 2019, 04:44 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
I would like to extend on the COT and I would...

I would like to extend on the COT and I would appreciate Myrrdhin if you are more specific on which aspects exactly do you based on to say that the COT is bullish for OJ and Coffee C. I am certainly...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading May 22nd, 2019, 06:42 AM
Replies: 68
Views: 4,482
Posted By Sagal
Good to know your positions Myrrdin. I am short...

Good to know your positions Myrrdin.
I am short in OJ (OJU19) after having lost my bet on a short put 110 (too much supply not enough demand) and looking forward to increase short position if prices...
Forum: Options on Futures May 5th, 2019, 07:20 AM
Replies: 7,113
Views: 935,470
Posted By Sagal
Thanks I understand that most of the selling...

Thanks I understand that most of the selling options sellers are stopping quickly the trade if the price of the underlying goes against them and take profits sooner (at the latest at 50%). Finally as...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 49

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