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Search: Posts Made By: SMCJB
Forum: Psychology and Money Management 3 Hours Ago
Replies: 5
Views: 124
Posted By SMCJB
Well if you were backtesting a system I would say...

Well if you were backtesting a system I would say Walk Forward Optimization should help prevent being a 'calculator millionaire' but since your trading is more discretionary I honestly don't know.
Forum: Traders Hideout Yesterday
Replies: 529
Views: 20,732
Posted By SMCJB
It's not much of a negotiation when one side lays...

It's not much of a negotiation when one side lays down all the rules.
Forum: Bitcoin Trading April 28th, 2017
Replies: 58
Views: 4,891
Posted By SMCJB
Not sure "use" is the same as "viabile",...

Not sure "use" is the same as "viabile", interesting story though.
For now it's way to volatile to be viable in my opinion.
When you transfer like that what exchange rate do you get?
Forum: Options on Futures April 28th, 2017
Replies: 5,951
Views: 624,234
Posted By SMCJB
Technicality maybe but selling ES puts is a...

Technicality maybe but selling ES puts is a directional trade, and the reason it works most of the time is because of upward bias of equities. The reason no other commodities allow you to be short...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 28th, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
Expanding on my previous answer, right now z9z0...

Expanding on my previous answer, right now z9z0 has a 3c bid/ask, z0z1 8c, z1z2 11c. z2z3 11c, z3z4 21c.
Hence the bid/ask on the z901 fly is 11c, z012 fly 19c, z123 fly 22c, z234 34c!
As such...
Forum: Vendors and Product Reviews April 28th, 2017
Replies: 284
Views: 40,964
Posted By SMCJB
Ahh okay. Yes I agree you can optimize the...

Ahh okay. Yes I agree you can optimize the walkforward itself, different is/os periods, different start dates etc etc and that would obviously could lead to over fitting, which is why you shouldn't...
Forum: Trading Journals April 27th, 2017
Replies: 82
Views: 2,128
Posted By SMCJB
I'd second what Grantx said. While there is an...

I'd second what Grantx said. While there is an expected etiquette here, it's one of respect, unlike many other online forums. Criticism is great, as long as its respectful.
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 27th, 2017
Replies: 113
Views: 3,647
Posted By SMCJB
Move over John Kemp.... I see you posting...

Move over John Kemp....

I see you posting some of the LNG charts on Twitter. Why not post some of these as well?
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 27th, 2017
Replies: 113
Views: 3,647
Posted By SMCJB
Nice charts Ron. Wish I could say these were...

Nice charts Ron.

Wish I could say these were mine but they are all from John Kemp's daily email... (free to join)...

Winiter was warm

https://futures.io/attachment.php?attachmentid=232956
...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 27th, 2017
Replies: 113
Views: 3,647
Posted By SMCJB
LNG exports are growing, and swinging the...

LNG exports are growing, and swinging the supply/demand imbalance back the other way. Despite a warm winter, we enter the injection period with stocks significantly below last year, and a lot closer...
Forum: Vendors and Product Reviews April 27th, 2017
Replies: 284
Views: 40,964
Posted By SMCJB
Walkforward (the way Kevin teaches it) is the...

Walkforward (the way Kevin teaches it) is the bane of my existance, but also probably a life saver. I have so many things that look good at first but never can get past walkforward. That tells me...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 27th, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
So that is the z789 - z890 butterfly spread. ...

So that is the z789 - z890 butterfly spread.

The further back you go the less volatile they are, although in the really long dated ones the settlements are often bad and not updated enough. Most...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 27th, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
Yeap thats z7-z8-z9 and z9-z0-z1 Just curious...

Yeap thats z7-z8-z9 and z9-z0-z1
Just curious can you chart spread(CLES12Z7-CLES12Z8-CLES12Z8+CLES12Z9)?

The thing that surprises me is the shape of the fly curve.
All CLZ butterflies... z789...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 26th, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
When I chart flies I normally only look at EOD...

When I chart flies I normally only look at EOD data.
During the trading day I have a spreadsheet that calculates what the true value of every contract is and then calculates what the implied value...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 23rd, 2017
Replies: 4
Views: 702
Posted By SMCJB
What you pay in brokerage, is the combination of...

What you pay in brokerage, is the combination of exchange fees & your brokers clearing fees.
If you lease a seat, you'll still have to pay your brokers clearing fees.

Seats are $500/month....
Forum: Traders Hideout April 21st, 2017
Replies: 1
Views: 161
Posted By SMCJB
Risk Parity Funds

aquarian1

Bloomberg: Paul Tudor Jones Says U.S. Stocks Should ‘Terrify’ Janet Yellen...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 21st, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
With this move today WTI z7-z8-z8-z9.... all back...

With this move today WTI z7-z8-z8-z9.... all back in contango again for the first time in almost a month and only the 14th time in the last 96 days.
Right now the only part of the WTI curve...
Forum: Options on Futures April 21st, 2017
Replies: 5,951
Views: 624,234
Posted By SMCJB
I'll repeat that ron99 and others have shown that...

I'll repeat that ron99 and others have shown that 'optimal time decay' involves selling option with a greater time to expiry that that, and to close position at a 50-60% profit rather than wait to...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 21st, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
Dated Brent is like the "Cash Brent" price. It...

Dated Brent is like the "Cash Brent" price. It represents the price of Brent cargoes that have specific loading dates and is the worlds mostly widely used benchmark for pricing physical crude.

See...
Forum: Options on Futures April 21st, 2017
Replies: 5,951
Views: 624,234
Posted By SMCJB
ron99 and others have shown that 'optimal time...

ron99 and others have shown that 'optimal time decay' involves selling option with a greater time to expiry that that, and to close position at a 50-60% profit rather than wait to expire.
Forum: EasyLanguage Programming April 20th, 2017
Replies: 6
Views: 360
Posted By SMCJB
Highest (Function) The Highest function...

Highest (Function)

The Highest function returns the highest price over a range of bars.

Syntax
Highest(Price, Length)

Returns (Double)
The highest Price found over a range of Length bars.
Forum: Options on Futures April 20th, 2017
Replies: 5,951
Views: 624,234
Posted By SMCJB
That's a great point, and probably worth it's own...

That's a great point, and probably worth it's own discussion. If you trade/have automated systems for USD:EUR what do you do ahead of the French Election? Do you switch of your ES & GE systems before...
Forum: Options on Futures April 20th, 2017
Replies: 5,951
Views: 624,234
Posted By SMCJB
Or French Terrorist Attack. Two Policemen just...

Or French Terrorist Attack. Two Policemen just killed in Paris.
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 20th, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
I think these article could have been written...

I think these article could have been written much better, quoting bank analysts and consultants as if they were traders, and making what I think are confusing statements alluding to "Dated Brent"*,...
Forum: Commodities Futures Trading April 17th, 2017
Replies: 1,922
Views: 145,994
Posted By SMCJB
Who?

Who?
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How many trading buddies do you follow or share with?

 

 
 

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