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Search: Posts Made By: aquarian1
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 19th, 2017, 05:58 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Time forecasting package

There is a time forecasting plug-in package for Weka.

It comes with a db of apple stock prices in 2011. date, O/h/l/c and adjclose.

If you open in an just run the forecast the package will...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 17th, 2017, 07:33 PM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
------------------------ my thoughts on the...

------------------------ my thoughts on the terror barrier --------

By getting emotionally involved with the new idea you raise your vibration to that idea which is high and higher than the lower...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 17th, 2017, 07:32 PM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
Breaking through the terror barrier

source:
7. Paradigm Shift Bob Proctor - Breaking Free from Negativity - Ep. 7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxREnLeqIW8

Min 8
Your old condition causes the fear. To get through the terror...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 17th, 2017, 06:44 PM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
Ideas the seeds of creation

It is this all achievement, all earned riches, have their beginning in an idea!

If you are ready for the secret you already possess one half of it; therefore, you will readily recognize the...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 17th, 2017, 03:24 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Discretionary trading and ML

How might ML help us, we discretionary traders?

Two possible approaches (among several) come to mind:


testing our setup to establish win frequency
combining key inputs to help generate a...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 17th, 2017, 02:53 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
ZeroR

ZeroR counts occurrences and predicts all most on the most common.

So if you had 1000 days and 600 up days and 400 down days it would predict (classify) all days as up days - as it is the most...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 17th, 2017, 02:48 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Summary so far

Use ZeroR to establish a baseline
NaiveBayes often works very well even when the independence assumption clearly doesn't apply.
In time series analysis you have to put your thinking hat on and be...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 16th, 2017, 03:07 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
overfitting

The automatic time series forecasting package at default settings can give a very low error (when trained on entire data set - which you shouldn't do) and over-fitting. Overfitting is a bad thing...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 16th, 2017, 12:21 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Hold out data

In ML you often to the training of your model with 10-fold cross validation. (reusing 9 of 10 data slices in different combinations.) However you can't do this with time series data because the order...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 16th, 2017, 12:02 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
time series

There are 3 courses on Weka. I am now doing the 3rd one. In the most recent lesson we have gotten to time series analysis.

In lesson1.2 he does stuff one step at a time - manually so you can see...
Forum: Trading Journals October 16th, 2017, 11:42 AM
Replies: 856
Views: 56,048
Posted By aquarian1
low risk but high cost events

"Two elements of human psychology contribute to our irrational neglect of preventive measures. We are not good at giving the appropriate weight to low-risk events, however catastrophic they may be,"...
Forum: Trading Journals October 16th, 2017, 11:19 AM
Replies: 856
Views: 56,048
Posted By aquarian1
30 yr anniversary of Black Monday

19 Oct is the 30 year anniversary of 19 Oct 1987.

from today's news:
"Today, the South Korean and U.S. navies kicked off massive combined drills off the coast of the Korean peninsula amid...
Forum: Trading Journals October 15th, 2017, 07:16 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 3,542
Posted By aquarian1
Fat Pitch Week 437

HOW= 2555.50
LOW= 2539.25
Week 437 = 16.25
Week Dir = 1


https://futures.io/attachment.php?attachmentid=242625
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 13th, 2017, 05:38 PM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
three morning things to do

Bob Proctor on How to Visualize, Think and Grow Rich & Reading | #TalksAbout 01 Catalin Matel of Romania
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsrFT5WPybw

3 things to do each morning:

1. take a pen...
Forum: Trading Journals October 11th, 2017, 07:28 PM
Replies: 856
Views: 56,048
Posted By aquarian1
Prospect theory

Prospect theory contains four main elements.

First, individuals derive utility not from wealth (or consumption) levels, but rather from gains and losses relative to some reference point.7
...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 11th, 2017, 01:06 PM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
inspirational dissatisfaction

We are happiest when we are striving to achieve a goal. When we achieve one goal, it’s a natural human tendency to set another, usually bigger, one.

W. Clement Stone calls it inspirational...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 11th, 2017, 12:31 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Traders edge

I think in this thread I am trying to put forward that our knowledge of trading, having been in the trenches helps us when we move forward in applying possible tools such as ML.

There are a lot of...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 11th, 2017, 12:20 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Neural Networks 2

Well not much - at least for datamining.

I take notes as I am doing the lessons (these lessons are youtube videos).

2 neutral net options
1. The Voted Perceptron (under function Classifiers)...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 11th, 2017, 12:01 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Neural Networks

Last night I did the lesson on neutral networks. The instructor is not very impressed. He did his Master Thesis on them (at U of Calgary - which seems to have a strong ML comp sci dept), and made an...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 11th, 2017, 10:10 AM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
opportunities

Opportunities are not windfalls.

Winning a sweepstakes makes you instantly rich; encountering an opportunity means you will have to go to work.

When you have attuned your mind to recognize...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 10th, 2017, 08:04 PM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
Plan for success

The best plan of action is one that provides opportunities for others to benefit if they wish to work with you toward the accomplishment of your goals but that does not depend upon these people for...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 10th, 2017, 06:06 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
continuing the cost-sensitive model

When I looked at the credit model example I could see a parallel to trading.

In the credit model 1000 loan applications are the training set (the training set would be be like your data base...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management October 10th, 2017, 10:09 AM
Replies: 486
Views: 18,359
Posted By aquarian1
Faith

Faith is the head chemist of the mind. When faith is blended with thought, the subconscious mind instantly picks up the vibration, translates it into its spiritual equivalent, and transmits it to...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 9th, 2017, 07:01 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
Big Mike Thanks Mike. The reason is in...

Big Mike

Thanks Mike.

The reason is in the post after yours. (you are too quick for me!). :-)

I want to stay apart from the existing threads on automation that I see being much more linear...
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading October 9th, 2017, 06:50 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 493
Posted By aquarian1
So this is why I made this thread. I don't see...

So this is why I made this thread. I don't see using ML for trading as a simple throw numbers in the top and turn the crank. One needs to understand the complexity of trading to intelligently apply...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 2873

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