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Search: Posts Made By: Nickemp
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 19th, 2011, 02:25 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,708
Posted By Nickemp
Here is the problem with the roulette strategy. ...

Here is the problem with the roulette strategy. Even if there were such a thing as a casino that didn't limit bets you are effectively playing a game with a 47% chance of winning. That means you...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 12th, 2011, 03:36 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,708
Posted By Nickemp
That's not correct I have shown that for a...

That's not correct

I have shown that for a given percentage win you gain is greater if you increase your position size when you are having a string of wins than if you keep your position size the...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 9th, 2011, 06:55 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,708
Posted By Nickemp
Changing position size like this is NOT...

Changing position size like this is NOT equivalent to fixed fractional position sizing. The bet size is reduced dramatically as soon as a loss comes along. With FF the be size decreases a little...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 9th, 2011, 06:49 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,708
Posted By Nickemp
Lets try it like this. 1500 trades. Standard...

Lets try it like this. 1500 trades. Standard win/loss is 500. When there is a win then increase by 50%. Keep doing this until there is a loss then go back to 500.

I have added red blobs to...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 8th, 2011, 07:34 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,708
Posted By Nickemp
Just in case you were wanting to give up on this...

Just in case you were wanting to give up on this method of position sizing. Have a look at what happens if your win rate is 55% - Hint. Look at the scale along the bottom
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 5th, 2011, 06:17 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,708
Posted By Nickemp
Here is the same deal except increasing R by 0.5%...

Here is the same deal except increasing R by 0.5% each time.

From these two I would say this is worthwhile as long as you win rate is better than 50%. It doesn't seem to rescue a 50% win rate
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 5th, 2011, 05:37 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,708
Posted By Nickemp
I read thread this yesterday and found it very...

I read thread this yesterday and found it very interesting. I used to have discussions like his with a programmer buddy who was a Math PHD. He hated TA and insisted markets were random so no...
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