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Search: Posts Made By: kevinkdog
Forum: Options on Futures July 21st, 2017, 08:32 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 579
Posted By kevinkdog
I think the point here was not the professionals...

I think the point here was not the professionals are on the other side of any particular trade, but that the professionals are out there, and their job is to make lots of money. They don't care...
Forum: NinjaTrader July 19th, 2017, 12:22 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 131
Posted By kevinkdog
Tradestation data also includes historical data...

Tradestation data also includes historical data for TF in the new RTY contract.
Forum: Beginners and Introductions July 18th, 2017, 07:42 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 155
Posted By kevinkdog
Did you include slippage too?

Did you include slippage too?
Forum: Traders Hideout July 17th, 2017, 04:04 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
It is easy. What most people call...

It is easy.


What most people call "expectancy" is just average trade value (#1 in both screenshots below)

Van Tharp also has something that is a risk adjusted expectancy, I call it Tharp...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 16th, 2017, 06:47 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
Different (paint) strokes for different folks, I...

Different (paint) strokes for different folks, I suppose.

I have the exact opposite experience - I know quite a few successful "finger painting" traders, but zero long term successful...
Forum: Off-Topic July 16th, 2017, 10:45 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 82
Posted By kevinkdog
Would this include traders trading the Nikkei...

Would this include traders trading the Nikkei Index futures on the CME?
Forum: Traders Hideout July 16th, 2017, 10:05 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
I definitely agree that both are needed to...

I definitely agree that both are needed to succeed!
Forum: Traders Hideout July 16th, 2017, 08:37 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
Here's my point: regardless of your style of...

Here's my point: regardless of your style of trading, if you don't have a way(s) of entry and exit that over the long haul produces profit, nothing else matters - you will lose.

Too many people...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management July 15th, 2017, 09:59 PM
Replies: 428
Views: 15,420
Posted By kevinkdog
Short book, and the main point of it is that...

Short book, and the main point of it is that everyone has a "Personal Legend" to follow. Basically, the world conspires to help you to achieve your goals. Motivational book, told as a fable. Short...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2017, 04:42 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
If you think "positive expectancy" is the same as...

If you think "positive expectancy" is the same as gambler's fallacy, I am confident you do not understand expectancy and how it can be of benefit.

Based on 25+ years of doing this, I can tell you...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2017, 03:15 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
I'm unsure how to answer your questions, but I...

I'm unsure how to answer your questions, but I will share this:

1. Any hedge fund or Commodity Trading Advisor will always ask you what you think your edge is, if they want you to trade with them...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2017, 02:38 PM
Replies: 592
Views: 134,989
Posted By kevinkdog
Battlestation #2

On days like today, I use Splashtop on Battlestation #2 to remote into Battlestation #1

https://futures.io/attachment.php?attachmentid=238021
...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2017, 10:53 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
1. no 2. yes Discretionary traders can...

1. no
2. yes

Discretionary traders can indeed have positive expectancy. The approach might be impossible to backtest, though.

Regardless of trading style, you can always use actual real...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 14th, 2017, 07:30 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,292
Posted By kevinkdog
Yes, it is called expectancy. If you don't...

Yes, it is called expectancy.

If you don't have positive expectancy, many of the other things on your list (iron clad discipline, superior money management, thousands of hours of screen time,...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management July 13th, 2017, 04:23 PM
Replies: 428
Views: 15,420
Posted By kevinkdog
Have you ever read The Alchemist?

Have you ever read The Alchemist?
Forum: NinjaTrader July 13th, 2017, 08:06 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 131
Posted By kevinkdog
Historical Data For New Mini-Russell on CME

I am trying to figure out what data providers are doing regarding the new mini-Russell CME symbol RTY, since it is transitioning from ICE to CME.

RTY started trading on July 10, 2017. So...
Forum: MultiCharts July 12th, 2017, 09:47 AM
Replies: 58
Views: 801
Posted By kevinkdog
$99 for 1 month of Tradestation, if you don't...

$99 for 1 month of Tradestation, if you don't make 10 round turn trades. Why not try that?
Forum: Traders Hideout July 12th, 2017, 07:13 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 177
Posted By kevinkdog
PJYU7 (very small volume) 6CU7 6SU7 J7U7 ...

PJYU7 (very small volume)
6CU7
6SU7
J7U7

FX Products (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/index.html)
Forum: Emini Index Futures Trading July 9th, 2017, 06:39 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 1,392
Posted By kevinkdog
Maybe they are using TF data for history. That...

Maybe they are using TF data for history. That is what I (and others) are trying to get Tradestation to do. It makes sense to use TF for history, since it is the same symbol (and this is what was...
Forum: Trading Reviews and Vendors July 7th, 2017, 09:28 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 3,078
Posted By kevinkdog
This is some great work. Hopefully people will...

This is some great work. Hopefully people will realize the implications of this - real time performance is usually not as good as backtest performance.

Thanks for sharing!
Forum: Trading Reviews and Vendors July 7th, 2017, 08:53 AM
Replies: 319
Views: 47,495
Posted By kevinkdog
I have similar metrics for a few strategies. If...

I have similar metrics for a few strategies. If your results are all out of sample or from walkforward, I would put more faith in them. It would obviously be nicer to see more trades.

The bigger...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 5th, 2017, 01:53 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 1,188
Posted By kevinkdog
I think the real reason why most...

I think the real reason why most educators/trading rooms do not show performance is because there is no profitable real performance to show.

Because of that, they invent a thousand untrue excuses...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 5th, 2017, 09:16 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 410
Posted By kevinkdog
This example is tainted. It is quite likely that...

This example is tainted. It is quite likely that in real time your trend lines would have looking nothing like this. Your lines sometimes come close to touching turning points, sometimes not.
...
Forum: Trading Reviews and Vendors July 5th, 2017, 08:15 AM
Replies: 319
Views: 47,495
Posted By kevinkdog
You could test them both at the same time. I...

You could test them both at the same time. I usually see the second order effects like this to be be a smaller driver than the variable by itself (first order effect).

In doing this, I am guided...
Forum: Trading Reviews and Vendors July 5th, 2017, 08:07 AM
Replies: 319
Views: 47,495
Posted By kevinkdog
There are a couple of tricks I use to help narrow...

There are a couple of tricks I use to help narrow down parameters and ranges. The first thing is that in my experience if you have a lot of parameters to start, your system is too complicated. So...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 1803

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