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Search: Posts Made By: Fat Tails
Forum: Psychology and Money Management March 17th, 2012, 01:09 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Yes, the expectancy takes into account the...

Yes, the expectancy takes into account the R-Multiple (ratio winning to losing trade) and the winning probability.

So does the Kelly Formula.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 9th, 2012, 07:56 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Most of the casino games such as roulette are...

Most of the casino games such as roulette are random games. As there is no strategy to win a random game with a negative expectation it is even useless to try. Black Jack is an exception, because due...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 17th, 2012, 05:41 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
We are multiplying, because the three toin cosses...

We are multiplying, because the three toin cosses are independent of each other. Each toin coss has a probability of 50% of producing heads or tails. So any string - whether it is TTT or THT or HHH...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 16th, 2012, 09:09 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
If the person who throws the coin does not know...

If the person who throws the coin does not know any specific turns and twists to influence it, it should be random.


No, not really. I am afraid you are confusing things. There are different...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 11th, 2012, 12:43 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
I was talking about conditional probabilities of...

I was talking about conditional probabilities of finite subsets.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 11th, 2012, 12:39 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
I did not confuse @devdas...

I did not confuse @devdas (https://futures.io/member.php?u=3376), and I answered his post. Some of the other readers may be confused, but I do not mind.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 11th, 2012, 11:43 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Thanks for pointing this out. Of course, if you...

Thanks for pointing this out. Of course, if you talk about a probability, you first need to specify the design of the experiment - or the rules of the game that you want to play.

With the toin...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 11th, 2012, 11:30 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
If I look at your avatar, I understand why you...

If I look at your avatar, I understand why you don't want to open the box.

Half-cats that have been sitting in a box for a while tend to be hungry.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 11th, 2012, 07:12 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
https://futures.io/v/z4p8sk.jpeg

https://futures.io/v/z4p8sk.jpeg
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 11th, 2012, 06:15 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
The charts do not disprove independency. The...

The charts do not disprove independency. The odds for having 3 tails in a row are .5 x .5 x .5 = .125, because the tosses are independent.



This is a fallacy. There is no maximum. However, the...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 9th, 2012, 02:14 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
If you have a regular coin and throw it 3 times,...

If you have a regular coin and throw it 3 times, each toss is independent from the prior toss - the coin does not have a memory - and the probabability of getting 3 heads in a row is

0.5 x 0.5 x...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management January 8th, 2012, 04:23 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
If you are not afraid of Calculus

I have recently bought this book and it looks quite interesting.

Richard A. Epstein: The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Second Edition

"A background in upper-level undergraduate...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management November 29th, 2011, 01:13 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
This depends on the rules of the casino. You may...

This depends on the rules of the casino. You may not place any bet after the "rien ne va plus", and this may be well after the ball has started to roll. Otherwise there would be no reason for using...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management November 28th, 2011, 04:57 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Of course, if you measure speed and angular...

Of course, if you measure speed and angular momentum of the ball after it has been released, then you may calculate an estimate of where it will stop. Not easy though, because you have to place your...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management September 15th, 2011, 05:58 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
The mathematical expectancy for betting red,...

The mathematical expectancy for betting red, black or green is the same for a European bord. Betting $1 will yield

Red or Black : $ 1 * 18/37 - $ 1 * 19/37 = -1/37 = - 0.027 $
Green: ...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management September 15th, 2011, 02:52 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
This thread is about understanding that -as long...

This thread is about understanding that -as long as the wheel is even - there is no superior betting strategy for Roulette. The house will always win in the long run.

Roulette is a negative...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management July 7th, 2011, 04:31 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Not as dangerous as no knowledge. And then it is...

Not as dangerous as no knowledge. And then it is not the question who has built the car, but who drives it. :becky:
Forum: Psychology and Money Management July 7th, 2011, 04:20 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
I remember several sources for test of a...

I remember several sources for test of a combination of random entries with a defined exit strategy.


(1) One of the first sources is the 1991 classic by Charles LeBeau / David Lucas: Technical...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 27th, 2011, 10:32 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Van Tharp's definition of the System Quality...

Van Tharp's definition of the System Quality Number uses his own definition of th expectancy, which is based on the R-multiples. As I have stated, I do not understand, what is R, it seems to be an...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 25th, 2011, 07:22 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Hi Arpad, thank you for your answer. As I...

Hi Arpad,

thank you for your answer. As I have the 2nd edition of the book by van Tharp, I have checked his definitions for the expectancy. Indeed, he defines expectancy as the "mean R Multiple"....
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 24th, 2011, 03:44 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Hi Arpad, please look up the defintion of...

Hi Arpad,

please look up the defintion of the expectancy (or mathematical expectation). You will find it in the trader's wiki here as well. It is not a ratio but an absolute value. The definition...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 19th, 2011, 11:26 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Think about it again. Roulette is a sucker's...

Think about it again. Roulette is a sucker's game, because the only way to win is sheer luck.

Your "system" is funny, because it has no impact on the results.

It is like playing in a lottery....
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 19th, 2011, 10:25 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
If you play roulette, you have a negative...

If you play roulette, you have a negative expectancy. Your probabilities were less than 50/50. You simply did not play long enough to lose all your money.

In roulette there is no such thing as hot...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 19th, 2011, 03:34 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
Casino(1), Trading(2) or Opera(3): Entertainment...

Casino(1), Trading(2) or Opera(3): Entertainment will cost you some money.

Unless you are the House(1), have an edge that you exploit in a repetitive and boring manner(2), or you are one of the...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 18th, 2011, 04:11 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By Fat Tails
This would be progressive betting. If you...

This would be progressive betting. If you increase your bet size after a losing trade, this is known as a Martingale strategy. It is one of the commonest mistakes of traders and known as averaging...
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