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Search: Posts Made By: worldwary
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 17th, 2011, 06:50 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
It works until it doesn't, and then your account...

It works until it doesn't, and then your account is blown.
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 14th, 2011, 08:48 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
If you look at nickemp's chart in post # 75, the...

If you look at nickemp's chart in post # 75, the red dots represent the expected return using a fixed bet of $500.

For instance, the chart shows that the expected return is about $75,000 if you...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 14th, 2011, 04:46 AM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
Unless I've missed something, I think the issue...

Unless I've missed something, I think the issue isn't that the formula is flawed per se, but rather that the results are not optimal.

This is because the profits posted in those charts would be...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 13th, 2011, 08:26 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
To push the thought experiment a bit further,...

To push the thought experiment a bit further, let's assume you have a system with an overall positive expectancy of $50 per trade and an overall success rate of 60%.

If you break the data down...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 13th, 2011, 04:02 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
Yes, I understand the distinction and agree that...

Yes, I understand the distinction and agree that expectancy is the proper measure.



In trading, how do you know if your bets are correlated?
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 12th, 2011, 01:35 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
This is where the rubber meets the road I think....

This is where the rubber meets the road I think. In a thought experiment you can establish the win rate by definition; in the real world the win rate can be guessed at but is subject to change...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 05:51 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
I ran some numbers through my spreadsheet and...

I ran some numbers through my spreadsheet and gave this a bit more thought. I find myself agreeing more with Fat Tails now.

If your system has a winning percentage greater than 50%, then the...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 3rd, 2011, 12:18 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
I agree with this. I've walked through the logic...

I agree with this. I've walked through the logic and convinced myself that if you have say a 60% success rate and therefore can expect more winning strings than losing strings over a large sample,...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 2nd, 2011, 08:09 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
Thanks for the interesting post. This was a new...

Thanks for the interesting post. This was a new idea for me and I wasn't really sure I understood the implications so I created a quick spreadsheet to let me experiment. I've attached the spreadsheet...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management April 2nd, 2011, 02:12 PM
Replies: 204
Views: 48,632
Posted By worldwary
A common tactic among trend followers (like the...

A common tactic among trend followers (like the Turtles) is to add to winners.

The implication from this thread, if I understand correctly, is that it would not make sense to add to winners...
Showing results 1 to 10 of 10

What are the most important features in a trading platform? (choose three)

 

 
 


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