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Search: Posts Made By: SpeculatorSeth

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 17th, 2022, 11:07 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

If you have a series of 10,000 samples the...

If you have a series of 10,000 samples the chances of this happening at least once is 99.257%

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=323777

So as always it comes down statistics in a...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 12th, 2022, 01:21 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Intelligence as measured by IQ has never been...

Intelligence as measured by IQ has never been something I have seen associated with successful trading. Of course, we have a very small sample of successful traders to work form. Of those that are...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 11th, 2022, 07:18 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Come on, you only beat me by a minute anyways :p

Come on, you only beat me by a minute anyways :p

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 11th, 2022, 06:56 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

I feel that I've already adequately covered this....

I feel that I've already adequately covered this. It's advanced statistics. Most people do not have masters degrees in math, and natural human intuition is terrible at seeing these things. We...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 11th, 2022, 05:38 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

I'm not sharing opinions. I'm summarizing our...

I'm not sharing opinions. I'm summarizing our best understanding from the latest empirical research. I find it a little silly that I have to argue with people about the effectiveness of empirical...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 11th, 2022, 03:57 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Yes, without an understanding of the data science...

Yes, without an understanding of the data science you are extremely unlikely to have success in modern markets. Not without some sort of other informational edge. Markets are very statistically...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 11th, 2022, 02:46 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

If people are so smart then let them talk about...

If people are so smart then let them talk about proven market behaviors that are backed up with empirical research.

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 11th, 2022, 12:58 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Financial markets have a tendency to exhibit fat...

Financial markets have a tendency to exhibit fat tails and other odd statistical distributions that make them difficult to analyze. Such distributions fool the tools that we are taught in school...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

April 10th, 2022, 05:10 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Kind of seems like it's just a losing battle...

Kind of seems like it's just a losing battle isn't it? The average person just doesn't think about performance over the course of 5 years. The average person doesn't understand the amount of data...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 28th, 2022, 06:30 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

They recently changed the rules allowing you to...

They recently changed the rules allowing you to be an accredited investor if you have a series 7, 65, or 82. My plan for spring break is to study for a Series 65. Most funds have a minimum...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 27th, 2022, 03:32 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

If we are truly at the start of a commodities...

If we are truly at the start of a commodities super cycle as some analysts believe then the CTA space will be a good place to look for opportunity. I don't know much about that industry or how to...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 26th, 2022, 06:03 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Ahh you're going to need a lot more trades than...

Ahh you're going to need a lot more trades than that. Remember that the more fat tailed a distribution is the more samples you'll need in order to get an accurate view of the distribution. If I'm...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 26th, 2022, 05:59 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

There are many advantages that institutional...

There are many advantages that institutional investors have over retail investors, but I have found that largely they're just playing a different game

I spoke with block traders when I worked at a...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 25th, 2022, 06:25 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Fair enough. I apologize as it's nothing...

Fair enough. I apologize as it's nothing personal. I have been streaming for five years, and the people that are just starting out definitely get the most use out of it. I just don't think enough...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 25th, 2022, 01:49 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Yes, well that's the scary thing. If 99% of...

Yes, well that's the scary thing. If 99% of traders can't hit a five year sharpe of .5 then how do you think they'll do on a more sophisticated metric? I only focus on sharpe because its the one...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 25th, 2022, 12:24 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

So I'll just come back to what's their 5 year...

So I'll just come back to what's their 5 year sharpe ratio?

I'm sorry that I end up picking on you, but it's really frustrating to talk about it in the thread already and still see people making...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 24th, 2022, 12:48 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

I really find the types of strategies I come...

I really find the types of strategies I come across to be all over the place. You'd think that most of the traders that come into my room would be mostly order flow, but it seems to match the larger...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 24th, 2022, 11:51 AM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Oh it's not even close. I don't take much risk...

Oh it's not even close. I don't take much risk on the futures, but I tend to lose overall with day trades. I've done pretty ok with micro treasuries, but it's still largely break even before the...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 23rd, 2022, 08:28 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

One really has to wonder how a hobby that has...

One really has to wonder how a hobby that has such a high failure rate can still attract so many willing participants. To sort this out I tried making a survey to which about 75 traders responded. ...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2022, 10:47 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

The point isn't that you aren't going to succeed....

The point isn't that you aren't going to succeed. The point is that it's not intelligence that is causing the majority of traders to fail. There are systemic reasons why the vast majority of...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2022, 03:52 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Trust me kid, I've watched the brightest among us...

Trust me kid, I've watched the brightest among us try for years and still fail.

If you are still relatively young and going to school for finance is a viable opportunity then it would...

Forum: Psychology and Money Management

March 22nd, 2022, 01:31 PM

Replies: 315

Traders with 5-10 years of experience but still not profitable

Views: 67,180

Posted By SpeculatorSeth

Part of the problem is just defining what is...

Part of the problem is just defining what is successful. My idea of successful is 5 or more years of trading with a sharpe ratio above .5. I do not hit those metrics, and you aren't going to find...

Showing results 1 to 22 of 22

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