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Posts Made By:
Btrader11
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 06:23 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
Blind confidence in your time series modeling. ...
Blind confidence in your time series modeling. That's never gotten anyone into trouble in finance before. Look, I've modeled vol surfaces for a long time. Of course, there's value in historical...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 05:41 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
Your flash crash model is built on a sample size...
Your flash crash model is built on a sample size of 1. Further, there was no actual underlying news event in that scenario. Surely, the vix would behave very differently if markets sold off 8.2% on...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 05:26 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
You shouldn't be comparing the Sep 2015 1650 put...
You shouldn't be comparing the Sep 2015 1650 put to any option in August 2011. It's nonsensical. We live in 2015 in a much different environment (vix is now half of what it was). As we sit here...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 04:43 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
No doubt, that is true. I'm not against selling...
No doubt, that is true. I'm not against selling vol and if sized appropriately I do believe it will be positive expectancy long term (although the ride could be bumpy). However, some of the sizing...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 04:34 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
The 1650 strike put (3 delta) that I used in my...
The 1650 strike put (3 delta) that I used in my example (taken from today's pricing) is 20% out of the money. The options you show above are 33% and 37% out of the money. Not even close to apples...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 03:54 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
Some info here on Vix spikes: A Brief History of...
Some info here on Vix spikes: A Brief History of Fear?VIX Over the Last 25 Years - Six Figure Investing (http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2011/07/a-brief-history-of-fear/)
Check out the spike to 150...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 03:51 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
If there's a major terror attack, natural...
If there's a major terror attack, natural disaster, etc. that occurs while the market is open, do you really think there is going to be someone there to willingly sell you puts (or vix calls)? ...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 01:59 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
A -21% move was considered unreasonable and...
A -21% move was considered unreasonable and impossible...until it happened. That's exactly the point - neither you or I can sit here and define what can reasonably happen. If you're saying that...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 12:36 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
I'm not trying to be argumentative, so please...
I'm not trying to be argumentative, so please don't it take it that way. Just trying to do a healthy exploration of the risks - can never be a bad thing. To that end, a couple of points:
1. Why...
Forum:
Options
July 2nd, 2015, 10:44 AM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
Thanks. Just wanted to make sure I'm appreciating...
Thanks. Just wanted to make sure I'm appreciating the magnitude of all of this. Presumably, the greatest risk here is a large gap event. Based on that graphic, it seems like 2,000 would be a...
Forum:
Options
July 1st, 2015, 11:51 PM
Replies:
7,370
Sticky:
Selling Options on Futures?
Views:
1,999,036
Posted By
Btrader11
Do I understand correctly that pnl over this...
Do I understand correctly that pnl over this period was 19,646 x (3.43 - 1.60) x 50 = 1,797,609 ?
Showing results 1 to 11 of 11
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