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Search: Posts Made By: CobblersAwls
Forum: Commodities May 24th, 2018, 05:18 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
"Darren Woods is mounting a strong defense of his...

"Darren Woods is mounting a strong defense of his plan to rescue Exxon Mobil Corp. from its share-price slump with $200 billion of investment over seven years that’s at odds with the belt-tightening...
Forum: Commodities March 29th, 2018, 01:17 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Would it be fair to say that the ideas and...

Would it be fair to say that the ideas and concepts themselves are not too complex, but that a lot of the skill in this form of trading comes from the risk management of the trades?

You briefly...
Forum: Commodities February 1st, 2018, 01:59 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Interesting points SMCJB, I've looked into these...

Interesting points SMCJB, I've looked into these correlations in the past and found some correlation but the note about products further along the curve is really interesting. I may have to do some...
Forum: Commodities January 14th, 2018, 09:01 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Yes, in the images I posted it represents an...

Yes, in the images I posted it represents an inverse correlation.

So as the USD strengthened, Oil price declined. As you point out USD has since weakened whilst Oil price has strengthened. So the...
Forum: Commodities January 1st, 2018, 08:39 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
How China Will Shake Up the Oil Futures Market

Key Notes:

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) will allow Chinese buyers to lock in prices using local currency (RMB) and will also allow international traders to trade the contract...
Forum: Commodities November 5th, 2017, 04:44 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Events in Saudi Arabia

A lot of news over the last 24h coming out of SA.

First there was the thwarted missile attack, then the announcement of a series of very high profile arrests of certain key figures in an...
Forum: Commodities August 5th, 2017, 01:48 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Hedge Fund Closures

I found it interesting that on the back of Pierre Andurand finally admitting defeat on his bullish bet we now see Andy Hall closing down his main fund. From a speculative standpoint, one could...
Forum: Commodities July 27th, 2017, 03:37 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Very interesting...does this mean that you could...

Very interesting...does this mean that you could potentially do without an autospreader and still be competitive?
Forum: Commodities July 25th, 2017, 08:17 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
I wonder if this could be for some...

I wonder if this could be for some accounting/balance sheet reason - for example if the well has been drilled then it counts as a 'proven reserve' or something like that in which shale companies can...
Forum: Commodities May 29th, 2017, 12:55 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
I know this Q was aimed at SMCJB but I thought...

I know this Q was aimed at SMCJB but I thought I'd help answer as he's covered a lot of ground on this subject and most of this can be answered without any specialist knowledge:



Collect the...
Forum: Commodities May 13th, 2017, 06:11 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
J Kemp's Charts

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=233985
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=233986
Forum: Commodities May 11th, 2017, 01:23 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
I suppose it also depends how much more people...

I suppose it also depends how much more people use self-driving cars. To add some musings:

In cities - if people stop owning cars and taking a taxi/uber becomes a lot cheaper due to them being...
Forum: Commodities May 8th, 2017, 03:25 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Will be interesting to see how positioning has...

Will be interesting to see how positioning has changed during the latest sell-off to $44's. Perhaps recent long liquidations could be bullish for oil, but then again we could some rotation around...
Forum: Commodities April 20th, 2017, 11:44 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Hi, No this is the first time I've looked...

Hi,

No this is the first time I've looked this type of relationship although I'd assume another interesting one would be Ethanol (from corn) and Gasoline due to their blending in the US.
Forum: Commodities April 20th, 2017, 07:33 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Is Crude Oil taking cue from Vegetable Oils?

Interesting report from the CME out a few weeks ago:

Is Crude Oil Taking Cue from Vegetable Oils? - CME Group...
Forum: Commodities April 19th, 2017, 03:49 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Saudi's Balancing Act

"After a lesser draw than expected to crude inventories, oil is selling off on this third Wednesday in April. As strong imports from the Middle East this week should help to buoy inventories for next...
Forum: Commodities April 17th, 2017, 03:16 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
You may find the following useful, I found the...

You may find the following useful, I found the material by J. Choi particularly useful when trying to understand some of these new concepts. Read through related posts on this forum, SMCJB has...
Forum: Commodities April 14th, 2017, 06:58 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Its CLZ7 vs 9/0/1 - the graph is very...

Its CLZ7 vs 9/0/1 - the graph is very interesting, especially the shape of that curve movement if just focusing on the data points from Jan 2017 onward.




Thanks!
Forum: Commodities April 14th, 2017, 08:48 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
I was measuring CL flat px vs a variety of...

I was measuring CL flat px vs a variety of spreads. One interesting dynamic I noticed is that, depending on how much data you reference, the information gathered can look quite different. On the left...
Forum: Commodities April 14th, 2017, 06:49 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Some Charts and thoughts on Trump re Oil

Spreads:

Been killing some time in the office today and did some charting. Noticed an interesting dynamic whereby the CL M1/M2 spread begins to drift lower whilst other longer dated spreads hold...
Forum: Commodities April 12th, 2017, 05:45 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Just guessing but I reckon they represent Ask and...

Just guessing but I reckon they represent Ask and Bid with L being Last
Forum: Commodities March 31st, 2017, 07:55 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Just some additional charts in relation to my...

Just some additional charts in relation to my last query on spreads.

Comparing M7/Z7 to Z7/M8 gives quite different results with M7/Z7 still in contango but Z7/M8 in backwardation and re-iterates...
Forum: Commodities March 30th, 2017, 02:26 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Backwardation vs Contango

I read an interesting piece by John Kemp yesterday ( Goldman takes on the Brent spreads: Kemp | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-kemp-idUSKBN16Z1DM) ) in which he discussed the...
Forum: Commodities January 17th, 2017, 03:28 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Thanks for the info, I checked them out and it...

Thanks for the info, I checked them out and it appears they were acquired by Platts in 2011 so must have become quite mainstream, perhaps reducing their edge? i'd imagine Platts charge quite a hefty...
Forum: Commodities January 15th, 2017, 06:49 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 618,039
Posted By CobblersAwls
Tanker Tracking

Anyone had a look at replicating some of the methods the OOTT team use for tanker tracking?

How prevalent are these methods in the industry? I'd assume they use more advanced methods to gain more...
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