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Showing results 1 to 16 of 16
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Posts Made By:
brentf
Forum:
Commodities
July 8th, 2014, 07:58 AM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
The new crop bean spreads over the pas week...
The new crop bean spreads over the pas week provide an example of reduced corrrelation between the price of the nearby and the spread. Flat price of X has dropped approx $1.30 while the X/K has lost...
Forum:
Commodities
July 2nd, 2014, 12:31 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
Very interesting charts, suggests a strong...
Very interesting charts, suggests a strong correlation between nearby spreads and price for Crude oil. I would guess that the correlation decreases for a commodity where the nearby spread approaches...
Forum:
Commodities
June 30th, 2014, 01:01 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
USDA report this am increases bean acreage, very...
USDA report this am increases bean acreage, very negative for X beans, expect new crop bean spreads to weaken given increased carryout.
Forum:
Commodities
June 29th, 2014, 09:15 AM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
With respect to the nearby month and fundamental...
With respect to the nearby month and fundamental analysis, the correlation between the deliverable stocks and the open interest is the single most important influence on a grain spread. In a...
Forum:
Commodities
June 16th, 2014, 12:14 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
N/X bean spread has narrowed to $2.06 over as...
N/X bean spread has narrowed to $2.06 over as funds liquidate N.This is an example of the value of COT that I was trying to make earlier.
Forum:
Commodities
June 11th, 2014, 10:03 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
Re bean spreads ; the bean spreads have the...
Re bean spreads ; the bean spreads have the potential to change significantly due to the shift in global production. The point that I am trying to make is that this won't show up in technical...
Forum:
Commodities
May 23rd, 2014, 05:20 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
The bean spread that is going to get interesting...
The bean spread that is going to get interesting over the next month is the N/X. funds long 130k N, half the open interest. I think they are going to take delivery of zero. Could get ugly if they...
Forum:
Commodities
May 20th, 2014, 07:44 AM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
Yes, the COT report should be taken into...
Yes, the COT report should be taken into consideration when trading a spread. 30 years ago the COT report didn't exist, the market would make an educated guess re composition of open interest. Now it...
Forum:
Commodities
May 19th, 2014, 11:14 AM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
When you look at a spread like this you have to...
When you look at a spread like this you have to look at the deliverable stocks vs. open interest. The planting progress report issued on Mondays will give you an inkling of the deliverable stocks in...
Forum:
Commodities
May 19th, 2014, 10:38 AM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
Re fundamental over short term, U/X bean spread...
Re fundamental over short term, U/X bean spread traded today at 52 1/4, the large inverses between old crop/new crop reflects the historically tight carryover. If producers get beans planted early, U...
Forum:
Commodities
May 15th, 2014, 07:01 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
Yes there is seasonality in the bean spreads,...
Yes there is seasonality in the bean spreads, that is an advantage over other commodity futures. However, the seasonality of the bean spreads is changing as a result of the large increase in SA...
Forum:
Commodities
May 14th, 2014, 10:27 AM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
In 2003/04 crop year the soybean carryout was 112...
In 2003/04 crop year the soybean carryout was 112 mil bushels which was historically tight. Nearby prices moved higher in order to ration supply and avoid running out of supplies. 2004/05 saw an...
Forum:
Commodities
May 13th, 2014, 02:09 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
new crop bean spreads at a carry due to large...
new crop bean spreads at a carry due to large carryout for next year, market now at 395 million bus, compares to 130 for this year. tipping point for bean spreads something less than 175 mil bushels...
Forum:
Commodities
April 25th, 2014, 08:10 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
new crop bean spreads
New crop bean spreads at a carry, rationale is that carry reflects record large production. Carryout projected approx 200 m bus, not a lot of room for error. I think spreads are undervalued, at a...
Forum:
Commodities
April 25th, 2014, 03:42 PM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
Grain Spreads
In the mean time, lets have a discussion on grain spreads, lots of opportunity this summer, want to get long new crop bean spreads...
Forum:
Commodities
April 25th, 2014, 11:40 AM
Replies:
99
commodity spreads
Views:
30,155
Posted By
brentf
commodity spreads
I have traded commodity spreads for the past 30 years, looking to collaborate with another party to incorporate strategies into algorythims..any interest ?
Showing results 1 to 16 of 16
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