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Search: Posts Made By: SMCJB
Forum: Options January 14th, 2021, 11:11 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
April is a different animal. Even if we do get a...

April is a different animal. Even if we do get a winter cold blast, and deplete storage, supply in April is still greater than demand, so it shouldn't spike like the winter can.
Forum: Options June 26th, 2020, 05:33 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
re: Natgas. Somebody forwarded this to me I...

re: Natgas. Somebody forwarded this to me I believe it's the most recent Goldman Sachs research outlook but can not be sure of its accuracy.

GS on GAS "last shoe to drop"By the end of this summer...
Forum: Options June 25th, 2020, 07:20 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Massive storage injection announced today for...

Massive storage injection announced today for last week. Believe the 120 BCF was not only a record for this week but also the largest in any week June thru October in the last 10 years. Storage at...
Forum: Options January 9th, 2020, 03:38 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Storage for the week ending January 3rd, 44 BCF...

Storage for the week ending January 3rd, 44 BCF Withdrawal, smallest withdrawal ever for this week of the year!
Forum: Options January 7th, 2020, 06:09 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
You will see more volatile prices at specific...

You will see more volatile prices at specific locations (Algonquin, which is basically Boston, is the most expensive and volatile gas in the country, in mid November it got as high as $6/$7) but as...
Forum: Options December 23rd, 2019, 11:25 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Sagal & myrrdin, Mike Green of Thiel Macro has...

Sagal & myrrdin, Mike Green of Thiel Macro has done some excellent interviews on Real Vision TV that discusses how institutions have implemented yield enhancement programs (read : volatility selling...
Forum: Options October 25th, 2019, 09:06 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
When prices get very low, it's normally because...

When prices get very low, it's normally because of large supply surplus. In situations like these the chance of sustained volatility is also low, so volatility goes down as prices go down. The...
Forum: Options September 19th, 2019, 09:25 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
A lot of it is 'associated gas' meaning that when...

A lot of it is 'associated gas' meaning that when you drill an oil well you actually get oil plus 'associated gas'. So in order to lower production they would also need to lower oil production and...
Forum: Options August 28th, 2019, 11:41 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Waha (and Permian) earlier in the summer actually...

Waha (and Permian) earlier in the summer actually traded negative, meaning you couldn't give it away for free you actually had to pay somebody to take it. (For example Waha May Gas Daily Average...
Forum: Options August 9th, 2019, 12:49 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Don't apologize. Nothing to apologize for. I was...

Don't apologize. Nothing to apologize for. I was just making a joke!

There's obviously a place for analysis and modelling but I generally agree with you that simple is better, and definitely think...
Forum: Options August 9th, 2019, 11:09 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
You mean you didn't read ...

You mean you didn't read

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41aB%2B5tSkYL._SX345_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
Forum: Options August 8th, 2019, 07:13 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
It's the volatility of the underlying. Very...

It's the volatility of the underlying. Very sophisticated traders may also look at the volatility of volatility (for example there are options on the VIX which itself is a volatility index) but...
Forum: Options August 7th, 2019, 10:04 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
I think there's also a burn-out factor. If your...

I think there's also a burn-out factor. If your an experienced trader and participating here to hopefully learn some new things, but to also give a little bit back and help others, there are only so...
Forum: Options July 31st, 2019, 03:11 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Production? They are producing so much gas in...

Production? They are producing so much gas in some area's of the country they have quite literally been giving it away the last few months. (Why? Isn't enough transport available to move the gas out...
Forum: Options July 27th, 2019, 07:17 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
My bank actually waives my wire fees, but I have...

My bank actually waives my wire fees, but I have most of my excess cash in their investment side and they do charge for wires. So if it's an urgent wire I pay the fee, if not I transfer to checking...
Forum: Options July 27th, 2019, 05:07 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
You sure that's to wire IN? Wire OUT fees are...

You sure that's to wire IN? Wire OUT fees are common but not wire in. You can often avoid wire out fees by using ACH/ETF. Of course my bank charges me to wire out!
Forum: Options April 10th, 2019, 05:07 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Lower implied volatility

Lower implied volatility
Forum: Options March 8th, 2019, 12:00 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Know nothing about Gold currently but think that...

Know nothing about Gold currently but think that this answer contains excellent advice to everybody.
Forum: Options November 15th, 2018, 10:33 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Sorry should have put this in the first post, but...

Sorry should have put this in the first post, but didn't realize they sent these out in different announcements.

In addition CL, HO, RB outright margins also going up $450
...
Forum: Options November 15th, 2018, 10:30 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
If I interpret this CME Performance Bond...

If I interpret this CME Performance Bond Requirement (aka margin) changes correctly it is saying that they are increasing the volatility scan ranges for most oil options effective after the close of...
Forum: Options September 10th, 2018, 09:53 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
NatGas Article by Andrew Hecht that talks a lot...

NatGas Article by Andrew Hecht that talks a lot about the storage fundamentals

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205006-natural-gas-falls-toward-bottom-end-trading-range
Forum: Options September 7th, 2018, 05:26 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Gun to my head, buy or sell NGZ8, I would rather...

Gun to my head, buy or sell NGZ8, I would rather buy than sell! As you say her trade is based purely on historical seasonals and not fundamentals, but I think the fundamentals are very different this...
Forum: Options August 17th, 2018, 09:57 AM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
I have a Real Vision subscription (well worth the...

I have a Real Vision subscription (well worth the money if you can afford it) and most of the people they interview have generally been bullish gold for a while now - just as it has slipped 15% in...
Forum: Options April 18th, 2018, 05:21 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
Something everybody keeps talking about is the...

Something everybody keeps talking about is the massive record setting bullish non-commercial/speculator position in the oil complex in general and in Brent specifically. Fear is that when people...
Forum: Options February 19th, 2018, 07:56 PM
Replies: 1,598
Views: 283,283
Posted By SMCJB
You mean other than they guy 5 posts before you...

You mean other than they guy 5 posts before you...
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