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Search: Posts Made By: SMCJB
Forum: Traders Hideout July 17th, 2015, 01:48 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
Apologies bad example on my behalf. Since the...

Apologies bad example on my behalf. Since the resulting game is the same in both scenario's I agree the "decision space is {bet on sun rising, bet on sun not rising}".

I should have picked...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 17th, 2015, 01:14 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
While I agree that p = 0 or 1 are extremely...

While I agree that p = 0 or 1 are extremely unlikely cases, they are obviously (along with 0.5) the easiest cases to illustrate. Your also right that in real life "p is not necessarily static...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 16th, 2015, 05:08 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
While you've given some colorful analogies,...

While you've given some colorful analogies, Gamblers Fallacy, Lottery Tickets, Sun Rising Tomorrow, Russian Roulette, and even marrying Taylor Swift you still have not explained how you can make...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 13th, 2015, 04:46 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
Just to confirm there is no ill will on my side,...

Just to confirm there is no ill will on my side, hopefully none on yours either.

Unfortunately this is the ‘thread subscription notification’ email that I got....
Forum: Traders Hideout July 12th, 2015, 03:42 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
Agree completely. As previously stated I think...

Agree completely.
As previously stated I think that properly separating the Up/Down and Down/Up to each have probability p(1-p) rather than saying the probability of the end node of 2 is 2p(1-p)...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 12th, 2015, 12:23 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
With the greatest respect (and be assured i have...

With the greatest respect (and be assured i have a lot of respect for you) but I'm not sure I agree.

Firstly your probability diagram notation is a little confusing to me as the sum of your...
Forum: Traders Hideout July 11th, 2015, 10:23 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
Could you elaborate? I'm not sure whether your...

Could you elaborate? I'm not sure whether your saying something about the analysis or about yourself.
Forum: Traders Hideout June 22nd, 2015, 06:59 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
I suspect we are talking about different...

I suspect we are talking about different things...

To put this in perspective below are two slides from a presentation I gave a few months back.
CL01 refers to the prompt month for outrights,...
Forum: Traders Hideout June 9th, 2015, 12:03 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
What you are describing is similar to what is...

What you are describing is similar to what is called a mean reverting process, and I would agree that this analysis would not hold for a mean reverting price process. The most common way to model...
Forum: Traders Hideout April 11th, 2015, 08:54 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 21,114
Posted By SMCJB
Why you should add to winners and never add to losers

Why you should add to winners and never add to losers

I recently got an email from Kevin Davey of KJ Trading, aka kevinkdog, regarding his latest blog post entitled “Peel Off Trading”...
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