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Search: Posts Made By: SMCJB
Forum: Commodities March 22nd, 2024, 10:11 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Not financial trading specific, but interesting...

Not financial trading specific, but interesting opinion about physical trading and the bad stuff/bribery that goes on.

Bloomberg :- Oil Trading Is Still Rife With Bribes. Time the Industry Cleaned...
Forum: Commodities March 19th, 2024, 04:37 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Fed Funds futures saying no rate cut till May. Of...

Fed Funds futures saying no rate cut till May. Of course they could be wrong!
March ~ 94.6725 = 5.3275%
April ~ 94.6725 = 5.3275%
May ~ 94.6925 = 5.3075%
(Settles against the monthly average of...
Forum: Commodities February 24th, 2024, 04:56 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
blackgrey45 while I obviously believe that we...

blackgrey45 while I obviously believe that we should let the markets sort these things out, that obviously assumes that the markets are fair. The US for many reasons has lost a lot of its industrial...
Forum: Commodities February 24th, 2024, 11:26 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
FT Alphaville :- Reimagining the SPR, Adapting...

FT Alphaville :- Reimagining the SPR, Adapting the Federal Reserve’s playbook for commodity risk
By Daleep Singh and Arnab Datta'

FT Link :-...
Forum: Commodities February 18th, 2024, 02:39 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
I rented a Tesla last summer from Hertz. Thought...

I rented a Tesla last summer from Hertz. Thought it would be an interesting experience since I only had an 80-90 mile drive each way. In theory should have been able to get to my destination and back...
Forum: Commodities February 18th, 2024, 11:12 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Re: Well Decline. Yes. Drillers are more and...

Re: Well Decline.
Yes. Drillers are more and more effective, getting more oil out of places we never thought we could do previously. They also do it faster and faster as well. Downside is the...
Forum: Commodities February 12th, 2024, 11:36 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Reuters :- Investors dump oil after US refinery...

Reuters :- Investors dump oil after US refinery shutdown
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/investors-dump-oil-after-us-refinery-shutdown-kemp-2024-02-12/

Portfolio investors abandoned hope...
Forum: Commodities February 9th, 2024, 12:48 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Sorry didn't page down that far. It's got 2675...

Sorry didn't page down that far. It's got 2675 replies and 594,000 views. Big Mike it should be at the top.
Forum: Commodities February 9th, 2024, 10:34 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Hey Big Mike if I search for "CL" or "Crude" this...

Hey Big Mike if I search for "CL" or "Crude" this thread doesn't show up in the search results?
Forum: Commodities February 8th, 2024, 10:54 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Reuters :- BP Whiting, Indiana refinery to be...

Reuters :- BP Whiting, Indiana refinery to be shut up to three weeks -sources

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-whiting-indiana-refinery-be-shut-up-three-weeks-sources-2024-02-07/
...
Forum: Commodities January 31st, 2024, 01:34 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Thanks Big Mike. The link in question uses the...

Thanks Big Mike. The link in question uses the site archive dot is to get around paywall news sites.
Forum: Commodities January 31st, 2024, 11:43 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Interesting thread... ...

Interesting thread...

https://twitter.com/big_orrin/status/1752426395454652873?s=43&t=5x-Uwd8ukHbUDGhdPWOHtw

1. short 🧵

I think what we are seeing is the oil world separating into two...
Forum: Commodities January 31st, 2024, 11:35 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
And it continues. Between 8/1/23 and 1/30/24...

And it continues. Between 8/1/23 and 1/30/24 CLM24 moved up just 11c while CLZ33 moved up overly $11! (Good luck trying to trade that though!)
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=337393
Forum: Commodities December 21st, 2023, 11:41 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Random Musings.... ...

Random Musings....

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=336839
Forum: Commodities December 4th, 2023, 09:32 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
josh the argument is that with Production at...

josh the argument is that with Production at almost 14 million bbl/day that the SPR is far less important than it used to be. The US is virtually oil self sufficient.

When SPR data started back...
Forum: Commodities November 16th, 2023, 11:03 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
From John Kemps 'Best In Energy' today U.S....

From John Kemps 'Best In Energy' today

U.S. CRUDE futures are trading in contango for the first two listed months (Dec/Jan and Jan/Feb) as traders become more confident supplies around the NYMEX...
Forum: Commodities November 10th, 2023, 03:37 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
https://twitter.com/big_orrin/status/1722921871748...

https://twitter.com/big_orrin/status/1722921871748767962?s=43&t=5x-Uwd8ukHbUDGhdPWOHtw
Interesting thread. Does a good job illustrating the huge lead time between buying a cargo of crude and getting...
Forum: Commodities October 3rd, 2023, 12:05 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
John Kemp's most recent chartbook. ...

John Kemp's most recent chartbook.

https://jkempenergy.files.wordpress.com/2023/10/cushing-oil-inventories-and-prices.pdf
Forum: Commodities September 28th, 2023, 03:26 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Generally yes. I understand that the Arb to...

Generally yes. I understand that the Arb to Europe is currently closed. Need to remember that WTI is now part of the Brent/BFOB/'whatever you want to call it' basket, but it's Houston WTI not Cushing...
Forum: Commodities September 28th, 2023, 02:53 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
It's a Cushing 'thing' not an 'oil thing'....

It's a Cushing 'thing' not an 'oil thing'. Fundamentals for the general oil market are not nearly as tight as they are for Cushing, OK.
...
Forum: Commodities September 19th, 2023, 10:35 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Slightly off topic but illustrating what the...

Slightly off topic but illustrating what the impact of the recent $20 jump in crude has to other industries...

This BQC newsletter is very Ags centric and this monthly update discusses the...
Forum: Commodities September 12th, 2023, 10:43 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
From John Kemps "Best in Energy" today. (For...

From John Kemps "Best in Energy" today.
(For clarification Distillates includes Diesel, Gasoil, Heating Oil, Kerosene and Jet Fuel and hence is the other high-value products other than gasoline)
...
Forum: Commodities August 17th, 2023, 05:04 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 18TH AUGUST ...

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 18TH AUGUST

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Sep23 increasing from $6200 to $6600 +$400
Tier 2 /...
Forum: Commodities August 15th, 2023, 03:59 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Firstly let me clarify that while I do trade lot...

Firstly let me clarify that while I do trade lot of crude (and natgas) I'm predominantly a relative value spread trader and not an outright trader. So I'm not sure how much weight I would put into...
Forum: Commodities August 14th, 2023, 12:42 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 613,493
Posted By SMCJB
Bulls :- Demand is fine (but not great) and the...

Bulls :- Demand is fine (but not great) and the market can't handle these opec supply cuts. Only reason market has been balanced for the last 18 months is because of SPR sales and that's ending.
...
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