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Search: Posts Made By: SMCJB
Forum: Commodities July 8th, 2018, 09:41 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
The Canadian Syncrude outage is expected to...

The Canadian Syncrude outage is expected to affect Cushing crude stocks for the next two months and Trump's Armada of Saudi Crude Oil can't get here until October, hence the explosion in Q-V...
Forum: Commodities June 10th, 2018, 10:26 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Not familiar with NT but you can program...

Not familiar with NT but you can program automated spread trading in Tradestation so would assume you can on other systems as well. As guidoisot said though, there is the issue of executing both legs...
Forum: Commodities August 26th, 2015, 12:15 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Correct. It's not like an option spread where...

Correct. It's not like an option spread where there are a difference in 'premiums'.
Glad I could help.
Forum: Commodities August 26th, 2015, 11:22 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Well hopefully you have more conviction than...

Well hopefully you have more conviction than 'Hope'!

If your trading a spread as a position you profit (or lose) based upon how the spreads move, aka how the individual months move in relation to...
Forum: Commodities August 26th, 2015, 10:58 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
I don't trade Soybeans often but yes Sep is...

I don't trade Soybeans often but yes Sep is Premium to November. If you roll (sell Sep/buy Nov) you won't actually collect premium but you will have a position in November with a lower cost basis.
Forum: Commodities May 21st, 2015, 05:09 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
It's (not surprisingly) not that simple. ...

It's (not surprisingly) not that simple.

Many commodities have extremely seasonal supply and demand profiles, and their forward curve often reflects that supply/demand profile rather than any...
Forum: Commodities July 1st, 2014, 11:20 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
I didn't want to answer this at the time you...

I didn't want to answer this at the time you asked as it was PropArb's original comment. Due to the lack of a current response though I believe that PropArb was saying if you were to chart the prompt...
Forum: Commodities June 19th, 2014, 05:23 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
I agree. So unless I have a strong opinion on the...

I agree. So unless I have a strong opinion on the prompt I try to avoid prompt spreads.

I think in this case brentf did have an opinion on the prompt based upon COT analysis.
Forum: Commodities June 11th, 2014, 11:18 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Thanks brentf for the info. I've got in and out...

Thanks brentf for the info. I've got in and out of my bean spread and have no plans to re-enter currently.
Forum: Commodities June 7th, 2014, 12:40 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Fri 6/6 ZS U-X settled at -45 exactly the type...

Fri 6/6
ZS U-X settled at -45 exactly the type of move we were hoping for last week. Thankfully still had about half of position left but exited last of position at 48. Still good trade, 5 1/4...
Forum: Commodities June 4th, 2014, 09:49 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
More on the SB V-K spread. Since...

More on the SB V-K spread.

Since seasonalgo.com's analyze shows that the optimal entry date is June 6th I ran some charts that showed the change in the V-K spread from June 6th to n days later....
Forum: Commodities June 4th, 2014, 05:17 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
ZS U-X widened early trading out to -55 before...

ZS U-X widened early trading out to -55 before settling at -52.25 (+0.75). Added a little back on.

SB V-K also widened trading out to -1.05 before settling -1.04 (-0.11). Opened a small position.
Forum: Commodities June 3rd, 2014, 05:04 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
After saying all that it traded as tight as 49s...

After saying all that it traded as tight as 49s today before widening back out and closing almost unchanged. After taking half the position off overnight in the 51s, I lightened even more today.
Forum: Commodities June 2nd, 2014, 08:40 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Interesting. Again just looking at the last 5...

Interesting.
Again just looking at the last 5 years, I think you will see your 5 year average is very skewed by 2 (2010 & 2011) of the 5 years. Even so -1 does seem to be a decent historical floor....
Forum: Commodities June 2nd, 2014, 07:56 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
I suspect that you didn't participate in this...

I suspect that you didn't participate in this spread, since it never got close to your targets. I did scale in some between 52.75 and 58.75 but it never really got to the levels where I wanted to add...
Forum: Commodities May 24th, 2014, 11:03 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Another bean thread that may be interesting. Some...

Another bean thread that may be interesting. Some discussion of the U-X spread...
Forum: Commodities May 23rd, 2014, 03:23 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
and as tight as -53.75 on the sell off

and as tight as -53.75 on the sell off
Forum: Commodities May 23rd, 2014, 08:10 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
ZS U-X spread traded -59 over night

ZS U-X spread traded -59 over night
Forum: Commodities May 22nd, 2014, 03:47 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Just curious what you mean by this? I think of...

Just curious what you mean by this? I think of seasonal trades as having a (very?) significant 'time based' component which a pure price based model doesn't have.
Forum: Commodities May 21st, 2014, 09:20 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
https://nexusfi.com/commodities-futures-trading/30...

https://nexusfi.com/commodities-futures-trading/30765-why-do-large-traders-commercial-hedge-traders-seem-go-opposite-directions.html#post392282
Forum: Commodities May 19th, 2014, 10:52 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Ohh.. I did sell a 52.75 today. Only sold 1 -...

Ohh.. I did sell a 52.75 today. Only sold 1 - hoping to sell more at a better (higher) level.
Forum: Commodities May 19th, 2014, 10:50 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Thanks brentf. What would be considered early vs...

Thanks brentf. What would be considered early vs late? Looking at the charts, if this trade is going to work, it's best chance of working is in the next 10-15 trading days.


I personally believe...
Forum: Commodities May 16th, 2014, 10:13 PM
Replies: 99
Views: 29,683
Posted By SMCJB
Hey Kurtas, nice chart thank you. First...

Hey Kurtas, nice chart thank you.
First question, why do you show X-U rather than the more traditional U-X?
I'm not sure I want to rely on information on what happened in this spread over the last...
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